John Sickels Top 20 Reds Prospects

Pretty encouraging

I'm pleasantly surprised to see some of the most recent draft picks doing so well. Mesoraco has a B rating, and Soto isn't too far behind.

I was also really surprised to see 1) Jared Burton even on the list, and 2) rated so poorly. Having spent most of the season on the big league roster, it's kind of hard to see how he qualifies in the first place, but he especially came on as one of our best relievers towards the end. Although I suppose that isn't really saying too much...

Still, I'm really excited about all the love the farm system is getting and even more excited about the rewards that this can bring down the road.

by Brendanukkah on Dec 7, 2007 6:05 PM EST reply actions

Burton

I go to Sickels's site pretty regularly. His cutoff is the same as rookie eligibility for pitchers; 50 innings. Burton only pitched 43 last year, so he's still eligible. For what it's woth, he sets his cutoff for hitters at 150 AB's while rookie eligibility is 130 AB.

As for his ranking, John is a tough grader as it is, but even more so for relief prospects. The best relievers are often failed starters, and relievers typically have short and volatile careers. It makes sense that guys who profile only as relievers get docked in John's system because the attrition rate is so high.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 7, 2007 6:47 PM EST up reply actions

I like Burton

But there are definitely some concerns about his control. 22 walks in 43 innings isn't acceptable. Also, he only gave up 2 HR - a couple more deep flies go over and his ERA goes up a run.

by ken on Dec 7, 2007 11:49 PM EST up reply actions

I was hoping I could say that he gave up

a large amount of walks when he was rarely used by Jerry Narron. I checked his splits and he walked 15 men in 34 innings after the all star break. It does make me worry that as he goes around the league hitters will be more patient, and he will be less effective.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 8, 2007 12:40 AM EST up reply actions

Can't blame it on Narron,

but there is reason for optimism here.

BB/9 by month:

Apr 27.00 (3BB in 0.1IP)
May 3.24 (Plus 2 HBP. Count those as walks, and it's 5.40)
Jun infinite (1BB in 0IP)
Jul 7.00
Aug 2.93 (but 2 of his BB's were intentional. Take those out, and you're at 1.76)
Sept 2.70

His control improved by leaps and bounds in August and September. Frequent contributor JinAZ did a nice breakdown of Burton on his site: http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2007/09/could-jared-burton-be-another-mariano.html . Bottom line is that anybody who's seen this kid pitch is bullish on him for next season.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 8, 2007 11:49 AM EST up reply actions

Rewards

As long as you understand that one of the rewards of a deep farm system is the ability to trade prospects, especially pitching prospects, for above-average major league talent.

by LooseCannon on Dec 8, 2007 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

no grade inflation here

Sickels is a tough grader - here's the scale of what his letter grades translate to in terms of their ability and long-term projection.

by DevilsAdvocate on Dec 7, 2007 7:41 PM EST reply actions

I have a feelling

that Sickels has never seen the picture of Homer in his hunting gear. Otherwise he'd never be a B+.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 7, 2007 8:56 PM EST reply actions

Tigrmetrics?

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 7, 2007 9:06 PM EST up reply actions

One comment about the list

I think he has rated Stubbs too high and Dorn too low, although he called Dorn a "sleeper', whatever that means.

Dorn hit well in Rookie league in 2006, jumped to High A in 2007, then moved to AA in mid-season and adjusted and hit well. The guy is a pretty good hitter. He could move up to AAA this year (2008) sometime and be major league ready next September, or Spring of 2009. Stubbs hasn't proven he can hit higher than low A; he struggled for part of the year (2007).

Playing on the same Rookie league team, Dorn burned it up, Stubbs batted 0.250.

And Mesoraco is rated WAY too high. Sure, he was a great prospect in high school, but give him at least another year in Rookie league to see how he handles 200-300 AB's; he needs to get a lot stronger to play in the high minors, let alone the majors.

I frankly never expect Stubbs to see the bigs except as maybe a back-up outfielder/defensive player.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Dec 7, 2007 11:20 PM EST reply actions

The front page...

...of MinorLeagueBall has a poll about Drew Stubbs.

I'm not too surprised at the Bailey ranking. A lot of the experts seem to find Bailey something of a mystery. I gather he doesn't fit any of their standard prospect profiles, and they just aren't quite sure what to make of him.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 7, 2007 11:39 PM EST reply actions

Is it time to get excited about Frazier?

As a college hitter he should move rapidly through the system (if he doesn't it's trouble).

by Red Menace on Dec 8, 2007 2:52 AM EST reply actions

Excellent rating of Bailey

He needs seasoning and a controllable off-speed pitch. Good to see Cueto's a rating.

"It's not savvy. But it's not Mike Stanton." andromache

by Madville on Dec 8, 2007 9:56 AM EST reply actions

Sickel's has a very high opinion of the Reds'

system right now.

After a few years of reading Sickels I gather a C+ candidate has only a small chance to become a better than replacement level player. Maybe a one in ten chance of lasting five years in the bigs.

What makes a system really impressive is not the number of C+ players, what matters are the higher rated players. Better to have one "B" than a van load of "C+" players. The Reds are loaded at the higher levels:

Jay Bruce, OF, Grade A (I'm not worried about the strikeouts given his age and performance)
Johnny Cueto, RHP, Grade A-
Joey Votto, 1B, Grade A-
Homer Bailey, RHP, Grade B+
Todd Frazier, SS-3B, Grade B+
Matthew Maloney, LHP, Grade B (I have always liked him, has component marks of a power pitcher not a finesse guy even though he doesn't throw hard)
Devin Mesoraco, C, Grade B
Drew Stubbs, OF, Grade B-
Neftali Soto, SS-3B, Grade B-
Kyle Lotzkar, RHP, Grade B- (a long way off but a good intuitive feeling)
Daniel Dorn, OF, Grade B- (major sleeper)

I doubt more than a few other organizations will have 11 or more real prospects.

Regarding Stubbs, I like Sickel's take on him. I think he is right. Stubbs most likely outcome now is a useful outfielder but not an impact player. Not that different from what Austin Kearns turned out to be only with more strikeouts.

Is Cueto really this good? I've never seen him pitch. Seeing him ranked over Bailey is a real surprise. If accurate, a very welcome surprise. What an amazing year he had.

And Fraizier, can he play SS at the MLB level? Is his ranking fully based on his bat or can he also handle SS duties? The Reds might consider shopping either him or Valaika this year. A lot of clubs are looking for SS prospects now. The Reds might consider choosing between the two this off-season and trade the other for MLB ready bullpen options.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Dec 8, 2007 10:29 AM EST reply actions

i seriously doubt if Fraizier could hack it

as a major league SS. he's projected more as a 3B, but probably no better than an average one. but it seems like the kid can mash.

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 8, 2007 10:46 AM EST up reply actions

Charlie's rght.

Frazier is destined for 3B or a corner OF. Also, He can't be traded until one year after his signing date, which I believe was in June. He can be a PTBNL in a deal six months prior to the first anniversary of his signing date, but can't officially be moved without his consent in the first year of his contract.

Good-looking hitter, though. I'm eager to see what he can do this season.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Dec 8, 2007 11:36 AM EST up reply actions

More Sickels on the Reds system

How can you not like it when he said earlier:

Working on the Reds farm system today.
Good Lord.
This system is loaded. You have the top quartet of Bruce/Cueto/Votto/Bailey, but even beyond them there is a good combination of performance guys and projection guys. My initial run through came up with 49 names worth writing about. I have narrowed that down to 39, which is the most I can put into the book. Even that, some of the guys I cut I wish I could put in.
Take heart, Reds fans. You have a lot to look forward to.

by LooseCannon on Dec 8, 2007 1:27 PM EST up reply actions

i have not seen him pitch

but what i have read is:

He has the best slider in the organization.
He has the best command in the organization.
He is very polished.
He also features a low 90's fastball that tops out in the mid to high 90's.
I feel like in the near future he will be better the Bailey.
I have been high on Cueto for a while, several members of this board told me last summer, Cueto won't be a dominant pitcher.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 8, 2007 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

Cameron

Cameron rumor below. Cincy may go after him if they move hamilton.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2007/12/08/padres-update-fukudome-cameron-barrett-bradley/

by em3 on Dec 8, 2007 4:34 PM EST reply actions

There's already...

...an entire diary devoted to this topic, posted last night.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 8, 2007 4:45 PM EST up reply actions

who has time to look through all those diaries?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 8, 2007 4:50 PM EST up reply actions

Me, obviously :-)

But I'm desperately missing baseball. I'm watching a "Mets Classics" game on SNY, that's how bad it is. And I don't even like the Mets...

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 8, 2007 4:53 PM EST up reply actions

thar's mighty good

college basketball on today

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 8, 2007 4:55 PM EST up reply actions

I know

But I'm not much of a basketball fan. My sister's really into it, but not me.

I'll probably switch over to college football soon. I tried earlier, and they were still doing the boring athlete interviews.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 8, 2007 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

How badly did Michigan lose to the Chuckers

by Man Mountain on Dec 8, 2007 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

very

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 8, 2007 5:10 PM EST up reply actions

If only they had clear titles...

BTW, looks like the Reds really were serious on the Dontrelle Willis front: http://florida.marlins.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071206&content_id=2320747&vkey=news_fl a&fext=.jsp&c_id=fla

Seems the fins think that if Abraham Nunez can play 3B for them, Jorge Cantu.

Despite his comments to the contrary, Sabean does seem to be considering a Lincecum trade. MLBtraderumors says that the Jays are talking Rios with the Gents.

by Man Mountain on Dec 8, 2007 4:57 PM EST up reply actions

is everyone at redsfest today?

i wish i was.

2008 NL Central Champs!

by Daedalus on Dec 8, 2007 5:07 PM EST reply actions

feedback

It is good to hear some positive things about our farm system. I wish we could've heard more positives about the rule five! After seeing Homer last year, I think that is a fair rating. I don't think one man's opinion is really hanging anything in the balance though. Had Homer not got hurt he would've been an A for sure!
Drew Stubbs will be a good ballplayer. Just give him a little time to get used to better pitching. Hopefully he'll see some in our minor laegue system. Three years and he'll be an everyday starter somewhere.

by pohackjr on Dec 8, 2007 6:54 PM EST reply actions

i think Jay Bruce

Will have the most successful career of anyone on the list.

Ashbakerlovechild

NOTE: this makes perfect sense to those of us who met up at Redsfest. Zach, sukr says hi.

by jch24 on Dec 8, 2007 8:04 PM EST reply actions

From John Fay

Just finished my Sunday Insider for the paper. Here's the cliff notes version: The Reds still think they can get a deal done for Erik Bedard. They're not going to give up Jay Bruce to get one done, however.

That would mean Homer Bailey would likely be in the package. I'm guessing here but I think it would take Bailey, Joey Votto and a top prospect to get the deal done.

Does that scare anyone besides me?

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 8, 2007 10:08 PM EST reply actions

That's too much.

I think I'd be okay with giving up Bailey and someone other than Hamilton, Bruce, Votto or Cueto.

Even if they only gave up Bailey or Cueto I would hope that Wayne could do what he could do to get Bedard locked up beyond 2009.

Which gets me thinking... Doesn't Harang have something like a $12M club option in 2010 or 2011? And how much would Cordero be making then? And how much do I want Wayne to simultaneously pay Bedard?

Geesh. All this for a team playing in a stadium built for Junior's run at Hammerin' Hank.

Never go with a hippie to a second location.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 8, 2007 10:21 PM EST up reply actions

Scares me

I hope Bedard goes elsewhere before Krivsky makes what I consider a huge mistake. There's no way I give up Homer together with either Hamilton or Votto for Bedard. The economic question about 2010 or 2011 is a good one. If Dunn is signed, that's at least 15 million ot him; 12 to Harang, 12 or so to Cordero. That's at least half the team's payroll. They won't be able to pay Bedard if they do get him--or they won't be able to keep Phillips or a number of other people That's too much payroll to commit to three players. It robs them of all the flexibility to make moves.

by HokieRed on Dec 9, 2007 12:15 AM EST reply actions

plus Arroyo makes a decent chunk of change

he will make $11M in 2010 and has an $11M option for 2012, which can increase to $13M.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 9, 2007 2:17 AM EST up reply actions

Drunken Ramblings

Floyd Mayweather, Jr. is gooooooooooooooooooood.
Spent some time slumming on the ESPN boards, and found an intriguing trade proposal: Joey Votto and Edwin Encarnacion for Tim Lincecum. Giants fans were all for it, and most Reds' fans (including myself) were on board, as well. Thoughts?
Bought 3 albums today, 2 on the recommendation of some Red Reporters:

a. Robert Plant & Alison Kraus - Raising Sand. Had to get this one, if only because it's fuckin' Robert Plant and Alison Kraus
b. Broken Social Scene - You Forgot It in People Man Mountain and Fat Vegas Alan said I needed this one.
c. Spoon - Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga I believe this was Brendanukkah's recommendation. Got the nod over Editors - An End Has a Start and The National - Alligator. The Boxer was unavailable at present, though that's next on my list, along with the Led Zeppelin album 'Nukkah is all about.
Full reports to be posted when available.

4. Italics are sweeeeeeeeeeeet.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 9, 2007 2:12 AM EST reply actions

Drunken reponse

I find the Editors completely unremarkable. Speaking of remarkable, I saw a two hour show tonight that basically consisted of a tall chick playing Billy Idol songs on a ukelele. And by "saw" I mean I was losing money at pool in the back. And by "remarkable" I mean I remarked often to people that I thought it was unpleasant.

by Man Mountain on Dec 9, 2007 2:28 AM EST up reply actions

Editors

I've only heard the title track off that album, and I thought they sounded kinda like The Killers with some balls. If you're telling me it's not that good, though, I might pass.

Your concert experience tonight reminds me of one I went to at the Dublin Pub a few years back. Tall chick on guitar this time. The show was pretty unremarkable until the last song she played. It was an Irish-folk-sounding song about a clockmaker who was schtupping all the women he made clocks for. The song was called "Ding Dong," making for a pretty funny double entendre. I was laughing my ass off, though it may have been the Guinness at that point.

BTW, one of the best albums I've heard in a long time (and I haven't heard that many, so take it for what it's worth) came from a member of BSS. Knives Don't Have Your Back by Emily Haines & the Soft Skeleton. I've been listening to the album for months, and had no idea she was in BSS until a few weeks ago. I'd highly recommend picking it up. She's also the lead singer of a band called Metric, and I've heard 3 or 4 songs by them, all pretty good.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 9, 2007 3:06 AM EST up reply actions

Not saying editors are bad

but they just sound like the zeitgeist. If you like the Killers, Interpol, etc, you'll like it fine.

I have heard that Emily Haines album and like it. I actually prefer the other EP she released earlier this year, however. It's the same style (I think it was extra stuff recorded for Knives), but more manageable.

by Man Mountain on Dec 9, 2007 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

the fight

I skipped Redsfest to nap and rest up for the big fight party. Between Thursday Midnight Golden Compass, working all nigh Friday and the fight Saturday something had to give. I hope somebody gave Krivsky hell for Guevera for me.

That was a fantastically entertaining fight. We all seemed to be pulling for Hatton, despite the fog-breathers booing of our national anthem. He's so like Rocky--charging forward into jabs, pushing the tempo, throwing body shots... we could almost see him hugging his betrothed as the ring announcer declared Mayweather still champion.

Pretty Boy Floyd is very much the Emmitt Smith of boxing--he excels in accuracy and subtle skill, despite lacking a dominating style. You would think this would warm my cold, metallic heart, but I joined the Brits in cheering Ricky towards his noble loss. He earned an honor in defeat few achieve in victory.

"There's only one, Ricky Hatton..."

by Red Menace on Dec 9, 2007 5:33 AM EST up reply actions