2008 Reds ZiPS projections

by James Quinn on Dec 27, 2007 1:44 PM EST Comment 70 comments

Dan Szymborski at Baseball Think Factory has posted the 2008 ZiPS projections for the Reds. Here is a link to the story. Szymborski gives Krivsky a semi-pat on the back by calling him not quite as bad a GM as Ed Wade.

A few notable projections:
Adam Dunn - .239/.366/.498. 36 HR, 103 RBIs. Seems a bit low for a contract year.
Encarnacion - .291/.361/.460. 18 HR, 78 RBIs. Please!
Griffy - .272/.346/.480. 23 HR, 81 RBIs. Still some gas in the tank.
Votto - .281/.357/.466. 23 HR, 88 RBIs. A bit higher than I expect.
Bruce - .266/.317/.476. 20 HR, 73 RBI. I could see him topping this.
Phillips - .271/.325/.435. 21 HR, 79 RBI. Dan advocates dealing Phillips now.
Hatteberg - .261/.348/.374. 7 HR, 48 RBI.
Freel - .264/.346/.376. 26 SB. I expect he will deliver more.
Sea Bass - .257/.317/.417. 14 HR, 58 RBI.
Hopper - .291/.330/.340. I would be surprised to see him maintain at this level.\
Ross - .203/.275/.369. 8 HR, 24 RBI. Dan sees 2006 as the fluke, not 2007.

I think ZiPS pitching projections are less useful, but a few to look at for fun.
Cordero - 3.34 ERA, 70 Innings.
Weathers - 3.84 ERA, 68 Innings. If true, not much of an upgrade for $46M.
Harrang - 3.87 ERA, 221 Innings, 196 Ks.
Arroyo - 4.36 ERA, 200 Innings, 130 Ks.
Bailey - 4.91 ERA, 132 Innings, 105 Ks. I think the pendulum has swung too far against this guy.
Cueto - 4.97 ERA, 154 Innings, 122 Ks.

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Alright universally pessimistic projections!

Personally, I think pretty much every single one of those projections is on the low end of what even I would project. And you guys know my general attitude by now. I think Dunn, Edwin, Phillips, and all the pitchers are very likely to surpass their projections. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Votto and Bruce's numbers better than those as well.

by Geki on Dec 27, 2007 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

On base..

If we can get some people on base - 150+ HRs projected - we should be able to score some runs.. Seriously if Bruce and Votto get everyday playing time and have that kind of output AND we see some of these young pitching studs pan out - we are in for a serious 2008/2009..

-Wake me when it is aught eight.

by snohio on Dec 27, 2007 2:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Unsabermetrically arrived at:

MADVILLE'S PROJECTIONS;

Adam Dunn - .265/.376/.498. 50 HR, 110 RBIs. about right for a contract year.
Encarnacion - .275/.353/.420. 15 HR, 78 RBIs. If only he'd surpass this
Griffy - .270/.340/.420. 19 HR, 65 RBIs. Provided he plays over 100 games
Votto - .281/.357/.466. 28 HR, 88 RBIs. More power because of GABP
Bruce - .270/.317/.476. 25 HR, 78 RBI. It depends on his durability
Phillips - .285/.375/.465. 27 HR, 85 RBI. Carreer year in the making
Hatteberg - .261/.348/.374. 7 HR, 55 RBI. If he gets to play.
Freel - .254/.346/.376. 20 SB. I expect him to be traded if he can play at all
Sea Bass - .270/.327/.440. 20 HR, 60 RBI. If he plays over 140 games
Hopper - .280/.330/.340. I would be surprised to see him maintain at this level.Me too
Ross - .240/.285/.390. 16 HR, 38 RBI. I see 2008 as another fluke, not 2007.
Keppinger - .290/.335/.400 10 HR. 45 RBI. if he gets to play over 90 games.

PITCHING
Cordero - 3.34 ERA, 70 Innings.
Weathers - 3.84 ERA, 68 Innings. If true, not much of an upgrade for $46M.
Harrang - 3.87 ERA, 221 Innings, 196 Ks.
Arroyo - 4.36 ERA, 200 Innings, 130 Ks.
Bailey - 4.91 ERA, 132 Innings, 105 Ks. I think the pendulum has swung too far against this guy.
Cueto - 4.97 ERA, 154 Innings, 122 Ks.

I hesitate to try to figure out the pitching except that the possibility of Bailey being around
.450 ERA, 160 innings,and 140 Ks

One more starter and we could be the surprise of aught 8.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 27, 2007 2:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

i still cant believe

that we gave $46 million to weathers. what was krivsky thinking?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 27, 2007 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Your slugging numbers are ridiculously low.

I suspect Adam Dunn would have an exceptionally difficult time hitting 50 homers and still managing to slug under .500.

by Geki on Dec 27, 2007 5:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Your slugging numbers are ridiculously low.

50 isn't my projection.

Dan Szymborski

by DSzymborski on Dec 27, 2007 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hence why I responded to Madville's projections.

by Geki on Dec 27, 2007 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Re: Ah

I see - didn't have comments as nested!

Dan Szymborski

by DSzymborski on Dec 27, 2007 6:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dan

Any chance of a Transaction Oracle on the Hamilton deal over at the Factory?

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 27, 2007 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I repeat - Unsabermetrically arrived at:!

I think that my estimates of batting average, rbi's and HR's will be worth checking as the season progresses. I really am not able to figure out slugging % etc very competently.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 28, 2007 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Other Projections

Here are the major projections that have been released so far. BJH and Marcel do not project minor leaguers, but I don't know why BJH didn't project Bailey.

Bill James Handbook Chone Name HR RBI AVG OBP SLG HR RBI AVG OBP SLG Castro 0 0 .000 .000 .000 4 22 .243 .281 .364 Dunn 43 103 .251 .386 .537 38 94 .254 .386 .533 Encarnacion 20 82 .296 .366 .490 17 63 .282 .356 .459 Freel 5 23 .265 .347 .367 5 39 .260 .348 .365 Gonzalez 13 55 .254 .308 .416 13 50 .261 .317 .421 Griffey Jr. 29 84 .263 .353 .487 28 82 .266 .353 .489 Hamilton 31 71 .305 .382 .598 15 42 .283 .361 .513 Hatteberg 4 22 .272 .370 .394 11 50 .276 .368 .416 Hopper 0 15 .318 .362 .364 3 42 .285 .332 .357 Keppinger 3 26 .322 .382 .420 8 57 .299 .358 .412 Phillips 23 81 .270 .318 .440 22 68 .277 .331 .449 Ross 20 49 .230 .310 .464 17 43 .229 .310 .437 Valentin 8 43 .266 .326 .407 7 32 .265 .330 .407 Votto 23 81 .307 .388 .526 24 75 .271 .350 .462 Bruce 21 68 .255 .305 .457 Dickerson 13 49 .223 .303 .362 Dorn 15 50 .244 .307 .411 Hanigan 4 31 .248 .333 .339 Janish 8 49 .231 .299 .336 Stubbs 7 43 .210 .279 .309 Name IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 Arroyo 212 4.08 6.16 2.67 1.06 209 4.35 6.37 2.76 1.16 Bailey 113 5.10 7.73 5.10 1.19 Belisle 169 4.79 6.34 2.45 1.17 142 4.69 6.40 2.41 1.20 Bray 40 4.05 9.68 3.15 1.13 46 3.91 9.00 3.13 0.98 Burton 60 4.20 7.50 4.20 0.60 60 4.50 7.80 4.20 1.05 Coffey 50 4.86 6.48 2.70 1.08 78 4.27 7.27 2.77 0.92 Cordero 61 3.54 10.03 3.69 0.59 67 3.36 9.54 3.09 0.81 Coutlangus 30 4.80 8.40 5.70 0.60 56 4.66 8.04 4.82 0.96 Cueto 120 5.03 7.80 3.83 1.35 Harang 235 3.91 7.62 2.37 1.07 218 3.80 7.93 2.31 1.03 Livingston 63 5.00 5.43 2.29 1.00 152 5.21 5.15 2.43 1.36 Majewski 55 4.75 5.40 3.44 0.49 68 4.50 6.09 3.18 0.93 Stanton 40 4.05 6.53 3.38 0.68 59 4.73 6.56 3.20 0.92 Weathers 75 3.84 6.48 3.72 0.84 75 4.20 6.36 3.60 0.96

Marcel ZiPS Name HR RBI AVG OBP SLG HR RBI AVG OBP SLG Castro 4 28 .245 .288 .360 3 20 .235 .280 .365 Dunn 32 87 .253 .376 .509 36 103 .239 .366 .498 Encarnacion 16 74 .282 .355 .453 18 78 .291 .361 .460 Freel 6 26 .261 .343 .385 5 33 .264 .346 .376 Gonzalez 11 53 .265 .319 .414 14 58 .257 .317 .417 Griffey Jr. 26 81 .266 .343 .478 23 81 .272 .346 .480 Hamilton 16 49 .288 .362 .506 Hatteberg 10 49 .276 .361 .413 7 48 .261 .348 .374 Hopper 4 28 .307 .362 .403 1 30 .291 .330 .340 Keppinger 8 41 .303 .371 .454 6 48 .307 .360 .408 Phillips 21 79 .283 .333 .453 21 79 .271 .325 .435 Ross 18 52 .237 .311 .442 8 24 .203 .275 .369 Valentin 10 49 .270 .330 .429 6 32 .261 .328 .406 Votto 8 35 .295 .358 .477 23 88 .281 .357 .466 Bruce 20 73 .266 .317 .476 Dickerson 15 52 .225 .313 .380 Dorn 20 72 .247 .318 .436 Hanigan 3 27 .252 .332 .350 Janish 6 46 .228 .294 .317 Stubbs 9 44 .223 .301 .335 Name IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 IP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 Arroyo 189 4.19 6.48 2.71 1.10 200 4.36 5.85 2.52 1.13 Bailey 83 4.45 6.51 3.90 0.87 132 4.91 7.16 4.64 1.09 Belisle 134 4.87 6.45 2.69 1.21 114 4.89 5.76 2.37 1.11 Bray 37 4.38 7.30 3.16 0.97 55 4.42 8.02 3.11 1.15 Burton 47 3.73 7.09 3.64 0.77 67 4.16 7.25 4.30 0.94 Coffey 58 4.89 6.83 3.10 1.24 75 4.92 6.00 3.00 1.20 Cordero 64 3.80 9.42 3.38 0.84 70 3.34 10.29 3.47 0.64 Coutlangus 45 4.50 7.40 4.20 1.00 66 4.64 7.23 4.77 0.95 Cueto 154 4.97 7.13 2.86 1.40 Harang 199 3.93 7.91 2.31 1.04 221 3.87 7.98 2.12 1.06 Livingston 83 4.99 5.86 2.71 1.19 151 5.78 4.29 2.26 1.49 Majewski 44 4.81 5.93 3.27 0.82 75 4.68 5.28 3.60 0.84 Stanton 61 4.94 6.20 3.39 0.89 55 5.24 5.89 3.44 1.15 Weathers 71 4.06 6.08 3.55 0.89 68 3.84 6.09 3.44 1.06

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 27, 2007 2:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

interesting

Dan advocates dealing BP now? so who would play 2B? i like the idea of moving BP instead of signing him long-term (ive never been a proponent of giving big money to the middle of the infield), but i would much rather wait for some of our infield prospects to mature a bit before we do it. all of our legit MIF prospects have yet to make it to AA (we can hope Valaika starts there in '08, but with wayner at the helm he may toil in A-ball til rapture). Keppinger? he should stay on the bench. i love the guy, Lord help me i love the guy, but he played half a season of good baseball. thats something he hadnt done in 4 or 5 years. we shouldnt count on him. perhaps if he gets extending playing time because of injury and shows he can do it with more regularity, i'd be open to dealing BP mid-season. but give it another year and i think we could get more out of it. BP should have another solid year, which would only boost his value. i can imagine a few teams would line up for 2 years of an all-star middle infielder come next winter.

what are all your thoughts on the BP situation? its not something i recall having an in-depth discussion about in recent memory. do we sign long-term and build around him, or do we deal him for prospects?

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 27, 2007 4:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Re: Phillips/Keppinger

Here's the thing about Brandon Phillips - his track record of good play is just as short as that of Keppinger - 2007 is simply not BP's established level of play any more than 2007 is JK's established level of play. Combine their MLB numbers and their minor league translations, calculate the OPS+, and here's how they fare throughout their respective careers (I'm hoping you guys can use PRE tags!):

<PRE>
Age BP JK
2000 80 COLLEGE
2001 98 COLLLEGE
2002 44 65
2003 86 78
2004 64 89
2005 88 101
2006 88 85
2007 105 117
</PRE>

Given the "30/30 Club" hype, even if one accepts that Phillips is better, which I personally don't, one would think you could land a player that's significantly more valuable than the difference between Phillips and Keppinger.

Dan Szymborski

by DSzymborski on Dec 27, 2007 5:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i cant believe

phillips only had a 105 ops+ last year. It seemed more like a 130ish season. the next step in his progress needs to be to improve that on-base percentage (.331 last season, which was the highest of his three fullish seasons). a guy with his power should walk more than once a week.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 27, 2007 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think there's no chance he is moved.

But I think moving Phillips would be the smart move. He's an exciting, energetic superstar in waiting, at least by traditional standards. Put him in New York and he's every bit as big as Jose Reyes is. BP is a weird player, in that he's more valuable than sabermetric folk give him credit for and less valuable than old school folk give him credit for.

by Geki on Dec 27, 2007 5:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

pessimisim

why does it seem anytime we get anyone good, we want to trade him away??? trade phillips??? do we want 5 more years of mediocre baseball in cincinnati?

"Herein is love, not that we loved God but that He loved us" -1 John 4:10

by shortstopv2 on Dec 27, 2007 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeaH!!!11!!1!

is that the correct answer? alrighty, then!

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 27, 2007 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i know thats what i want!!!!

"Herein is love, not that we loved God but that He loved us" -1 John 4:10

by shortstopv2 on Dec 31, 2007 3:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what does ZiPS stand for?

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Dec 27, 2007 6:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Zits Per Square inch

you can only take it at face value.

i, sadly, will not be here all week.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 27, 2007 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol you and Shrek

here to Thursday

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Dec 27, 2007 9:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

isnt there some way to take these projections

and turn them into a team projection? like how many wins this team would have if they all performed like this? they dont look much better than last year, but it would still be interesting to see.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 28, 2007 9:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

It's hard

because most projection systems don't take playing time (from a team's perspective) into account. Often you'll get a team that plays approximately 250 games if you add up all of the players, especially with systems that project minor leaguers.

However, if you took the time to estimate playing time for every player, you could use a run estimator to predict how many runs a team would score and how many they would give up. From there, you could get an idea of the number of wins they would have.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 28, 2007 10:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wow

that does sound like a lot of work. lets just way we will win 95 games.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 28, 2007 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hacked away at it

And using a very non-scientific method, I averaged the estimates that I listed above, divvied up the playing time as I saw fit and tried to estimate the number of runs scored and allowed. To my surprise, I came up with a team that will score 832 runs and allow 793 runs. That's an 86-win team.

This obviously should be taken with an entire salt lick. I'm sure my method was flawed, mainly because I was very quick and dirty about the whole process. However, it is promising to see that the projections have the Reds going in the right direction for next season.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Jan 2, 2008 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Man

I wish there was some way to predict how many beers I will drink tonight

by bobestes on Dec 28, 2007 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

7?

Although beers is really just a counting stat. You want to look at a drinker's BAC to really get an idea of how much alcohol they're putting away.

by Brendanukkah on Dec 28, 2007 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Seven?!?!

That is a very pessimistic projection for PDBC (Pay Day Beer Consumption.) Add in the positive "Holiday Modifier," plus the boost from the cold weather.... The dude has a good shot at a career night!

I expect he will easily surpass that dour prediction!

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Dec 28, 2007 5:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Projections

are just that.

Some players will have a career year at the right hand end of the bell curve of their career averages (like Brandon Philllips did this year). Or at the left hand end (like Bronson and Ross did this year). The really good players are consistent year in and year out; that is, above league - average consistent.
I know this may sound trite and simple minded to most, but somebody is gonna have a great year, and really surpise us.
Surprises (good) in 2007 (IMHO):
Hamilton
Phillips
Burton
Keppinger
Hopper
and frankly,Griffey

Bad surprises in 2007:
Bronson (not that bad)
Coffey
Stanton
Cormier
Ross
Gonzalez (time missed due to his son's sickness)
Bailey (small sample size)
Belisle (first full year of starting)

So without hanging out a lot of numbers, who do you think will have a career year in 2008?

Adam Dunn hits 0.280 and 50 HR's?
Bruce gets to start and becomes rookie of the year?
Hoppper plays every day and wins the Batting Title?
Harang wins 20 and the Cy Young?

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Dec 28, 2007 7:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

of all those

i think harang is the most likely

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 28, 2007 7:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Carreer year upcoming for Dunn.

Its about time for him to take the HR title and really break out of the level that he's been cruising at.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 29, 2007 10:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Surprises for 2008

Of the Good Variety:
Belisle - 3:1 K/BB ratios don't grow on trees. He improves his command from the stretch, stops making mistakes over the plate, and puts up a low-4s ERA.
Votto - .280/.380/.500 or so. The patience at the plate will help him immensely in his first year.
Ross - He's not a .579 slugger like he showed in 2006, but how 'bout .240/.340/.480 with the defense he flashed last year?
Burton - Go to JinAZ's site. Read everything he's written on Burton. Tell me you're not excited.
Encarnacion - Starts putting it together this year. Take his best BA, best isoD, and best isoP and you get a line of .289/.372/.493. Sounds about right.

About as Projected:
Dunn - Same as he ever was. If Dusty uses him properly, the RBI's will increase with no other improvement.
Arroyo - I think everybody expects somewhere between v.2006 and v.2007. 3.80-4.00ERA sounds about right.
Phillips - He'll hit some homers. He'll steal some bases. He won't take pitches. .750 OPS and another run at 30/30.
Harang - Mid 3's ERA, 220IP, 200K. Write it in pen.
Sea Bass - Anybody realize how similar his numbers were to the Franchise if you adjust for playing time? No idea how he gets labeled a disappointment last year.
Griffey - He'll hit. He'll get hurt.
Bailey - Until he gets that changeup down, he's going to suffer from bouts of inconsistency. He'll look like an ace one day, and get shelled the next. High 4's sounds about right.
Volquez - See Bailey, replace "changeup" with "curve."
Cordero - Low 3's ERA, 40+ saves, lots more confidence for the starters.

Disappointments:
Hopper - Once that bunt stops fooling people, he'll stop getting on base 3 times a week that way. He doesn't have the secondary skills to remain viable if that goes away.
Bruce - Love the kid long-term, but he's a little more of a free swinger than I like to see. Plenty of guys succeed that way, but most of them struggle early.
Weathers - Ran out of gas after the All-Star break last year, but got lucky. He won't get that lucky this year.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 28, 2007 8:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Pitches

Anyone else thinking that since Bailey's curve is above average and Volquez change is above average that maybe they will work with each other on their weaknesses and both will learn the pitch they need? This is one of the first things that popped into my mind when I read about how good of a change Volquez has and how he has struggled with his curve.

by CamIam on Dec 29, 2007 12:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe we should just mush bailey and volquez into

one pitcher.

194 mph fastball, with a great curve AND a great change. A pitcher like that might be difficult to hit.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Dec 29, 2007 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just imagine it

I was going to embed that clip from Voltron (you know, that one), but eh....

by Red Menace on Dec 29, 2007 1:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i was thinking

of the DragonBall fusion dance myself.

DragonBall? anyone? no? i figured...

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 29, 2007 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

kamehameha...

That's actually a band festival in Hawaii.

Reds: WS Champs 2008... and every year after...

by crolfer on Jan 1, 2008 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gonzalez

was not a disapointment due to his play, but due to his missing time from the team.
I don't think ill of the guy, it was just a tough break for his son, Alex and the Reds, in that order, for him to miss so much playing time in 2007.
That was the 'unexpected' disapointment.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Dec 29, 2007 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we should have been

surprised by Bronson last season. His WHIP was a little higher then normal, but a few weeks ago I calculated his WHIP during that horrible stretch he had in May and June, it was above 3. So that is the explanation. But his K/9, BB/9, where right in line with his career. His ERA was about normal for him. In his 4 seasons of being close to a fulltime starter he posted ERA's of 4.03, 4.51, 3.29, and 4.20.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 29, 2007 1:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

correction

instead of an ERA of 4.20 it was 4.23.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 29, 2007 1:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bailey

I'm not sure what the comment "the pendulum has swung too far against this guy" is supposed to mean. It's certainly not positive. Last year, everyone was panting to get this guy in the majors, and he gets there, and reveals (of course) he still has some things to learn, and people aren't as enthusiastic. I suppose that's to be expected, but I'm still baffled. This guy is still a top-10 prospect--he just has had some of the gloss taken off, because he's actually pitcvhed in the majors and been knocked around a bit.

I'll take a mid-4.00 ERA from a mid-rotation guy, which is what Bailey should be next year. And 10 wins. If that's his starting point, where does that get him in 2009, 2010?

by jamesp50014 on Dec 29, 2007 9:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My comment meant

that I think the projections on Bailey are too pessimistic now.

Rock Chalk Talk for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Dec 29, 2007 1:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

My bad!

by jamesp50014 on Dec 29, 2007 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

am i the only one who worries about Burton?

His 4.60 BB/9 scares me. I feel like if hitters start to be a little more patient, last year may be an outlier for him.

Weathers also worries me because of his age. He has marginal stuff. If he loses a little bit of bite on his breaking ball, or a little bit of velocity on his fastball he will become quite hittable.

I am still nervous as hell about the bullpen, and would like to see another midlevel arm added to it.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 29, 2007 1:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can someone please explain ...

Who is "Sea Bass"? And how did he get that nickname?

by Billingsfan on Dec 30, 2007 9:57 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

i had to ask this question too, some months ago

Sea Bass is the nickname his Marlins teammates gave Alex Gonzalez. apparently they felt his likeness so resembled that of a fish, it warrented a nickname.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 30, 2007 10:32 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also, spend some time poking around the wiki

A lot of inside jokes and references are explained there.

by Brendanukkah on Dec 30, 2007 1:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one of the inside jokes,

for example, is that brendan's mom does a lot of dudes. she's loose change.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 30, 2007 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wait....that's just a joke?

oh man, brendan, tell your mom i'm sorry about all the text messages then....

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Dec 31, 2007 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Don't worry

I'll tell her.

by Man Mountain on Jan 1, 2008 12:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

There is kind of a resemblance...

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 30, 2007 11:32 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

this is a prediction not a projection

Harang's ERA falls inline with his periphals, and wins the Cy Young, and some sports writers never before hearing about Harang, give him enough votes for the ROY he is the runner up.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 30, 2007 3:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Your prediction is downright Zachian...

Harang wins the Cy Young
Dunn wins for HRs
Griffey never recovers from his last injury and Jay Bruce is ROY
AND Norris Hopper hits a home run.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 30, 2007 5:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Norris Hopper hits a home run?

Now that's just plain CRAZY!

I know he hit a couple in '06, but really!

My own guess is that Dunn will not hit 50 HR, because he just won't get pitched to if he is really in a groove, unless he has a really good hitter behind him (like Griffey or BP).

I think it more likely that Votto gets ROY, just because the Reds' braintrust (who is that?) won't have him on the 25 man roster on Opening Day, unless Grif falls down a flight of stairs and breaks both legs; maybe not even then.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Dec 30, 2007 8:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i don't know if you guys

are paying attention to this (admittedly stupid) blog-off over at busted coverage, but I just went over to vote for FJM and my vote put the morgansterns ahead by one vote, 3,221-3,220. I felt downright special. voting ends tomorrow night, and I think it's interesting that all the last ones standing were baseball blogs (athletics nation, b-pro, THT, metsblog, FJM, MLB trade rumors all did very well). i didnt realize sports blogdome was so infused with baseball geeks.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 30, 2007 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sim has Reds on top of NL Central

The Reds came out on top of the Dodger Sims NL Central Winter Rankings. The simulator was used using 2008 ZIPS projections as input data.

This is a quick and dirty comparison of teams in the NL Central. 10 games were played by each NL Central team against the other teams. 5 games at home and 5 on the road, with the #1 pitchers facing each other #2 vs #2 and so on.

vr, Xei

Team Depo

by Xeifrank on Dec 30, 2007 9:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bill James loves Jay Bruce

He projects him to absolutely run wild on the league next year.

I love Jay Bruce and all, but I don't think he quite puts up the line James has for him...

AVG - .308
OBP - .363
SLG - .602
HR - 36
2B - 41
3B - 4

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 31, 2007 6:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

combined with jay bruce's purported defense.

...that's like an mvp year...

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Dec 31, 2007 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Please

not to trade Mr. Bruce.

by ctnyc on Dec 31, 2007 6:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's possible

If he's really the once in a generation talent many think he is.

A-Rod's age 21 season:

AVG - .358
OBP - .414
SLG - .631
HR - 36
2B - 51
3B - 1

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 31, 2007 6:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Votto / Bruce

I was surprised to see Bruce's projections below Votto's, even with the extra at-bats that ZIPS shows for Bruce.

But however it shakes out, it should be fun watching those two duke it out for the next few years -- hopefully they can push each other.

If both start the year hot, what are the chances Dunn gets traded at the deadline?

ScoutingBook: Top Baseball Prospects, Closer Watch, more!

by scoutingbook on Jan 2, 2008 12:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully none.

Even if Dunn doesn't get any better (I believe he will)he's a good complement to line drive hitting Votto who has some power and Jay Bruce who will need some one to protect him in the line up after Griffey gets hurts.Bruce probably won't be up with the big club at first. But after Jr. is hurt or Votto struggles he'll be up and he's going to be a very good all around player.

BTW this is going to be a break out year for Ede as the pressure is off and Coach Narron is gone. The pressure will be on Votto and eventually Bruce as well as the young pitchers - should allow Ede to relax and play ball, plus he has another year under his belt.

W/Jr.

Bruce CF
BP 2B
Jr. RF
Dunn LF
Ede 3B
Votto 1B
Gonzo/Kepp SS
Javy/David Lee
Pitcher

After Jr. gets hurt

Hopper/Freel CF
Bruce RF
BP 2B
Dunn LF
Ede 3B
Votto 1B
Gonzo/Kepp SS
Javy/David Lee
Pitcher

After Jr. is hurt the glut of Lefties is lessened.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Jan 2, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

when Jr is injured...

...by unidentified objects thrown from the stands...I'm pointing the finger at you.

by jacob brumfield on Jan 2, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, I Love Kenny...

In his prime they say he was as good as Jay Bruce is going to be now. I just think that everyone (including Jr.) would be better off if he went back to Seattle to finish a great career. Besides ever since I fell of a chest at work and dislocated by elbow I haven't been able to throw worth a damn.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Jan 2, 2008 2:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs