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Poll: Hamilton Volquez trade

What do you think? It is a tough trade to weigh out with the upside and downsides of both players. I feel like if everything Wayner has said in his reports is true than its a pretty even deal, unless Hamilton gets hurt then it is our favor. There is a chance Edinson stays wild and Hamilton performs the way many Reds fans though he would next season.

Poll
What do you think?
Texas got an All-Star, Cincy got a dud
34 votes
Texas got an All-Start, Cincy got a potential ace
73 votes
Texas got an injury prone platoon guy, Cincy got a dud.
9 votes
Texas got an injury prone platoon guy, Cincy got a potential ace
24 votes
somewhere in the middle, please specify with post.
32 votes

172 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 18 comments

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It's a little early...
...to be proclaiming any of these players all-stars or aces.  Or platoon guys or duds, for that matter.

We'll have a better indication in a year or so, but whether it turns out or not, I think this is a reasonable deal.  There's risk on both sides.  Sure, maybe Hobbs will be an all-star next year.  But maybe he'll be on the DL, in rehab, or struggling to adjust to a league that has figured him out.  

And maybe next year, Volquez will be a proven starter, and much more expensive.

There's a saying about Wall St.: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but hogs get slaughtered."  It means "don't get greedy."  The Reds are selling high.  I'm not going to worry about whether they could sell higher if they waited.  They have a surplus of outfielders and a shortage of pitching.  And Texas needs a big bat a lot more than the Reds do.  This deal fills a need on both sides.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 22, 2007 7:24 AM EST   0 recs

something that has yet to be clarified
what is Volquez's contract status?  am i wrong in thinking we still have this dude for 6 years?  he has never pitched more than 40 innings of ML baseball in a season, but he's done it three years running.  are those his three non-arb years and he is eligible for arb now?  or do they not count because they were so short?  if someone has a better understanding of this, please elaborate.
is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 22, 2007 8:02 AM EST   0 recs

status
Cot's has his ML service time at 0.088 years, but I don't think that's updated to reflect 2007. At worst he's used one year.

by Red Menace on Dec 22, 2007 10:33 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

lets talk about it in 3 years
The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 22, 2007 5:26 PM EST   0 recs

not good enough for a diary but
i have to post this somewhere. I see this move as idiotic, why would we trade a potential all-star who was a 5 tool player. Hamilton was a great defender, had an amazing arm, great power, and hit for a .290 batting average, he was also more affordable than dunn and seemed he was an icon in cincinnati. He was traded for a pitcher just as good as two we already have, bailey and cueto. Why in the world would we trade hamilton at his lowest value, because of injuries, for a young pitcher who has struggled at all levels? I know everyone is saying that bruce is ready, and he might be but it would have been nice to have a backup plan if bruce struggles in the transition, i really dont see hopper or freel as a backup. Why do we buy a 13 million dollar option for someone who even though he is a great homerun hitter, but has a week arm and isnt above average fielder with so many strikeouts. I really think this is a bad move and will comeback to haunt cincinnati, what are we gonna do when griffey gets hurt again this year? Start freel and hopper????
"Herein is love, not that we loved God but that He loved us" -1 John 4:10

by shortstopv2 on Dec 22, 2007 8:44 PM EST   0 recs

Because...
  1.  Griffey and Dunn have say in where they are traded to.  I don't think either of them were going to go to Texas.  Also, Hopper and Freel wouldn't have gotten us near as much in return.  
  2.  I bet they tried to deal Hamilton to Baltimore and other places and nobody was willing to take him ... injury/addict risk.  There's a lot to be said about the addiction risk, as well.  Many coke addicts do relapse -- this definitely made him expendable.    
  3.  Volquez may be the missing piece or the replacement piece in a potential deal for Bedard.  It seems the O's are wanting young talent more than the Reds right now.  The Reds already have good young SP prospects as you pointed out, and it seems that the Reds are playing more for 2008 than 2009 or later.  

by artvandelay on Dec 22, 2007 9:39 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

if it was just a piece of the bedard puzzle
i can defitally understand, i just hope wayne doesnt think this guy is going to fill the gaping hole in our rotation, erik bedard would be an amazing gift. what do u guys think?
"Herein is love, not that we loved God but that He loved us" -1 John 4:10

by shortstopv2 on Dec 22, 2007 10:03 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

What do I think?
I think Wayne sold high on Josh (although it is possible- possible- that Josh's value could go higher.  And it's possible -possible- that Josh's value could go much higher.  Possible that we might be talking about an MVP award somewhere down the line).

I think Bedard would be a great fit for this team over the next two seasons and I hope that one of the Reds' young green righties can be swapped for the more proven lefty.  Yes, I said proven.  No, he hasn't won any Cy Young Awards and in fact he's never won more than twelve or fifteen games and never helped his team finish any higher than fourth in their division but the dude did strike out more fuckers (221) last year than our man Harang ever has and he did it in six fewer starts than what Harang has averaged since '05.

I think Bedard will want to test free agency when his contract is up (and by "test free agency" I mean go pitch in the Yankees' new stadium and get paid with loads of gold bricks dumped out of platinum wheelbarrows) so I don't think I wanna buy his jersey or anything.

And I think that even with Bedard on the staff the Reds have only a 68-84% chance of winning the weak-ass Central once or twice over the next two seasons but I also think that Bedard could be flipped for some pretty tasty prospects if and when the time is right.

Ultimately, I think the trade was a trade.  We got a nearly-Major League-ready pitcher who can't throw a curve ball and the Rangers got a nearly-top-third-of-the-lineup-ready slugger who can't hit lefties.

And... I think that Garth Marenghi's Darkplace is the funniest thing I've seen on television since February 10, 2006 and I can't wait to see another episode next Friday night (Emerald and Texas Bowls be damned!).  Unless Barnes & Noble has that shit on DVD when I finish my Christmas shopping Monday night.

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 22, 2007 11:30 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

lowest value?
I'd say Hamilton is at anything but his lowest value.  I'm pretty sure his lowest value was being made available for the Rule 5 draft last year.
I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 22, 2007 9:57 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Nah
I'd say his lowest value was November 2005, when Tampa DFA'd him and he cleared waivers with nary a sniff from any team in MLB.
All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 22, 2007 10:18 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

ok not lowest value
but i think another couple year and it would be alot higher
"Herein is love, not that we loved God but that He loved us" -1 John 4:10

by shortstopv2 on Dec 22, 2007 10:43 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

unless
he gets hurt more, or relapses, either of which could be very likely. Ohhhhhhh........
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 22, 2007 11:07 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

re
I'll agree with the others that Hamilton's value wasn't low at all. The aspect I really like about this is that Krivsky executed a buy low / sell high. Maybe his value will be higher in a year or two, but you never know.

And I'll just add that your characterization of Dunn is... somewhat inflammatory.

by Red Menace on Dec 23, 2007 1:28 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

when have ss's..
characterizations of dunn been anything less than inflammatory?
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Dec 23, 2007 8:18 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

When they are...
  1.  Inane;
  2.  Unintelligible;
  3.  Ungrammatical;
  4.  Rife with malapropisms;
  5.  Typographically challenged;
  6.  Illogical; or
  7.  All of the above.
I would submit that all of the foregoing are anything but inflammatory.
At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Dec 24, 2007 10:36 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

Allow me...
to speak like an obnoxious economist for a minute here.

I think it's important to remember that we have to evaluate trades ex ante (i.e. from before) on the basis of, well, the players' expected value to the team and the risk involved in those players.  It's not so helpful to evaluate things ex post, since then we have all this information about how the players actually performed that we didn't have when we made the trade.  Sure, we can argue about whether, knowing what we know now, that was a good move to make, but how useful is that?

These players are all pretty risky, so it's particularly hard to evaluate their expected value.  I see Hamilton as a $1000 investment that maybe has a 10% chance of paying a hundred thousand dollars, a 25% chance of paying $10,000, a 15% chance of paying $2,000, and a 50% chance of being a total loss.  Maybe my numbers are different from what you'd estimate, but going with those, his expected value is $12,800.  Would you trade a player with a possible $100,000 upside straight up for a player worth $12,800, guaranteed?  Would you trade him for one worth $10,000 guaranteed (i.e. you're risk averse), or would you value that possible upside even more and insist on $20,000 for him?  

It's even harder to estimate these things when all players involved are pretty risky.  And then of course the two teams could have very different values on the players (which seems the very best type of trade).  In particular, the value of Hamilton to the Reds is his value over his replacement.  If that's Bruce, we could be looking at no drop in output at all.  If it's Freel/Hopper, it could be different, but still...

If we gave up a potential All Star but replace him with an All Star, we've given up very little.  To me, the payoff of the trade rests mostly on what our outfield will be.  If it's Dunn/Hopper/Jr., with a high risk of Jr. going down and being replaced by Freel, this trade isn't nearly as good as if we plan on Dunn/Bruce/Jr. with Hopper and Freel as possible replacements.

by Gray on Dec 23, 2007 5:03 PM EST   0 recs

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