Ken Rosenthal On The Orioles And Eric Bedard

by JD Arney on Dec 19, 2007 7:47 PM EST in News

Ken Rosenthal has a small item on the Orioles and Bedard today:

The Orioles, sources say, have slowed down trade talks involving left-hander Erik Bedard, apparently dissatisfied by the offers they are receiving. The Mariners, Reds and Mets are among the teams most interested in Bedard, but the A's return for Haren set a high standard. It remains to be seen whether Orioles owner Peter Angelos would endorse trading Bedard and second baseman Brian Roberts when both are two years away from free agency. ...

I get the feeling the Orioles are still going to have Bedard on their roster come April. I might be wrong, but this just seems to me what stupid teams do, and I know because I've seen the Reds do it pretty often in the past fifteen years, failing to trade people at their maximum value.

Bedard might be a great pitcher for the next ten years, who knows, but even if he puts up a 2008 similar to his 2007 he's still going to be less valuable with only one year left on his contract.

I actually am fine with Krivsky not coming in and blowing every other team's offer away. I think a deal could be made here that would help both teams quite a bit, but I get the sense that the Orioles want to really bend someone over before they'll agree to let Bedard go, and at this point I'm fine if that someone isn't the Reds.

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Bruce

Nothing mysterious to me about Bedard and the Reds. What McPhail is saying is clear: Bruce or forget it and he's counting on Krivsky to give in. I'm not convinced the Orioles have to move Bedard now. They might be able to get a very nice package of minor league prospects for him in July from the right club.

by HokieRed on Dec 19, 2007 8:13 PM EST reply actions

I agree

I think the Orioles are doing the right thing for their organization. They have no necessity to trade Bedard right now, at least not like the Twins do with Santana. If I'm the Orioles, I'm holding out to get the exact players that I want. Come July, teams will be a lot more desperate.

That being said, the Reds don't need to act desperate just yet.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 19, 2007 8:38 PM EST up reply actions

Are the Reds perceived to be desperate

already since they hired Dusty and signed Cordero? It's all a big game.

by pw on Dec 19, 2007 8:47 PM EST up reply actions

Perhaps

But perception is different than action. They may look desperate, but I don't think they are acting out of desperation in those two moves. I think they would consider those moves a part of a plan. However, if they fold and give up more than they want for Bedard, I think that is an act of desperation.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 19, 2007 8:53 PM EST up reply actions

I didn't mean

that signing Dusty and Cordero were acts of desperation. Instead I meant that once those two were signed, the Reds could be considered desperate to make those investments worthwhile by a major tweaking of the rotation.

by pw on Dec 19, 2007 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

I see what you are saying

But I hope they realize that 2009 is looking very promising without any major moves. I'm not saying they should give up on 2008, but they shouldn't sacrifice 2010 and beyond to win in 2008.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 20, 2007 7:58 AM EST up reply actions

Now versus July

The problem with trading Bedard in July is that less teams may feel like dealing for him because reality has replaced optimism. Right now the M's, for instance, might feel like they have a shot at the playoffs in '08. But if they start out poorly, or if the Angels and the Yankees/Sox/Indians/Tigers build an insurmountable division and WC lead, the M's will be less inclined to give up the farm for Bedard, as he would only make a difference for one rather than two seasons. The O's are taking a big risk if they think that more teams will be in the hunt for a front-line starter with 60 rather than 162 games remaining.

by ken on Dec 20, 2007 9:18 AM EST up reply actions

There's always someone

who needs another ace starting pitcher, though they may not have the same prospects. Given the number of teams that think they are in it in July every year, I'm sure the Orioles could find a proper suitor. July and the wild card have a way of making teams feel like their chances are better than they are. I'm sure someone will be willing to pay.

I think the bigger risk for the Orioles is that Bedard would have a nagging injury much like he did at the end of last season. I think teams would be much less interested in a pitcher with a question mark like that.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 20, 2007 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

On the one hand,

you trade him now and you have more suitors and are offering 2 years of service rather than 1.5. Plus you avoid the risk of injury or poor performance driving down the player's value, as you point out. But on the other hand, the urgency of the playoff race in July seems to make some teams desperate to deal (a certain NL Central team in 2006 comes to mind). That said, I still think it's much better to trade now if you realize that you have no shot of competing in the upcoming year. FWIW, there have been very few elite SP traded at the deadline in recent years, perhaps due to the difficulty of negotating a significnat trade under July's time and pressure constraints.

by ken on Dec 20, 2007 11:12 AM EST up reply actions

Another side

Another side of this, though, is that getting Bedard in July could make winning your division a virtual lock--and there's a very good chance that the teams in place to have that possibility will also be the teams with a real chance to sign him after 2009.

by HokieRed on Dec 20, 2007 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

The Red will never get Bedard in July

By then he'll either be involved in someone else's pennant race or we'll be too far out to contend. We need a strong 3rd pitcher to start the '08 season; July will be too late. (Unless Bailey learns to pitch, Belizzle figures out how to be consistent and Ceuto is a phenom) - doubtful all of that will happen.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 20, 2007 8:19 PM EST up reply actions

the reds don't need all of which to happen

if just 1.5 of that happens, or even maybe one it will be alright. Most teams 5th spot is a question mark, and revolving door through out the season. That being said I would love to see 5 solid pitchers, but 3 solid, 1 decent, and 1 question mark does not mean they won't win the division.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 20, 2007 10:04 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

With the Dodgers and Mariners being the other top candidates with the Reds for Bedard and them signing FA pitchers I guess it looks as though we are the only one left. I have seen some reports talking about the Blue Jays(O's wont trade in division) and the Braves but I think McPhail is dead set on Bruce and if he doesn't get Bruce this will be much like the Reds shopping Dunn last off season with the O's keeping Bedard.
Oh well, but we better sign a few cheap backup plans and realize that one of Cueto or Bailey will be competitive next season but they both need to be watched closely for injuries. I feel we can compete in the Central right now as long as the Brewers don't take too much of a step forward and the Cubs continue to have bad luck and internal issues.

by kennythered on Dec 20, 2007 12:26 AM EST up reply actions

I didn't know where to post this

but Todd Coffey has lost 16 pounds since the end of the season. Is it a coincidence that he hasn't hung out with Stanton in the bullpen since then?

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 19, 2007 8:48 PM EST reply actions

Donuts?

Doh!

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Dec 19, 2007 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

you know...

if coffey could get back on track, this bullpen could easily turn into a strength rather than a liability. i dont really think weight was Coffey's problem, but it must be good that he is working so hard.

i love the offseason almost as much as the regular season (sometimes much, much more). there are so many possibilities and dreams and wishes. i can convince myself that Todd Coffey can be great and the Reds can win the pennant. and its not all that crazy. sigh....

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 20, 2007 9:56 PM EST up reply actions

If Coffey loses weight..

..who's going to be this team's goofy fat guy?

I mean, every champion has one, right?

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 20, 2007 10:06 PM EST up reply actions

oh, we got it covered

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 20, 2007 10:15 PM EST up reply actions

Krivsky

Since we've got this pic of Stanton, maybe we should remember who signed him--the man you're thinking will be able to pull off a good trade for Bedard.

by HokieRed on Dec 20, 2007 11:57 PM EST up reply actions

Stanton

I haven't crunched the numbers myself, but someone over at Trent's blog claimed that Stanton's stats last year were pretty similar to his previous two years. The notable exception: BABIP. So perhaps he's just a victime of bad luck. Or sucky defense.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 21, 2007 7:23 AM EST up reply actions

Apparently it's muscle

by ken on Dec 21, 2007 7:53 AM EST up reply actions

Is that good?

I thought higher body mass was supposed to be good for pitchers.

That seems to be Cashman's thinking. He like big bulky pitchers, like Brian Bruney and Joba Chamberlain. The skinny guys like TJ Beam get DFA'd.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 20, 2007 11:19 PM EST up reply actions

Still haven't finished your Christmas shopping?

How about boxer shorts with the silhouette of Crosley Field and five other demolished ballparks. Just the thing for the Reds fan who has everything...

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 19, 2007 10:52 PM EST reply actions

I said "Clock!"

"Giant clock!"

by Brendanukkah on Dec 19, 2007 11:45 PM EST up reply actions

i see the polo grounds

thats not an attempt at humor, i just see the ballpark. it would look great next to brendan's giant clock.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 20, 2007 12:35 AM EST up reply actions

Stark's latest article

may shed some life on why the Reds haven't pulled the trigger on a deal for Bedard.

"We can sum up the difference between the National League and the American League these days with one little winter meetings anecdote.

We were speaking with a high-ranking official of an NL contender. We asked about a potentially earth-rattling trade we'd heard his team had kicked around.

It was there to be made. This official admitted that. His team could use the player. It had the players it would take to make the deal. But it wasn't happening. Not unless his team got realigned to the American League in the next 30 seconds, anyway.

"If we played in the other league, I'd probably do that," he said. "But in this league, I don't have to do it. If we keep the guys we'd give up, we have just as much chance to be playing in October as we would if we made the deal. So why do it?" "

Not sure that this is the Reds, especially since he says the official is from an "NL Contender" (I doubt he views the Reds as a contender), but it could be.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3161000

by Lakeman on Dec 20, 2007 1:36 PM EST reply actions

Buster Olney reports

the Mets could acquire starter Joe Blanton from the A's if they'd agree to surrender Carlos Gomez, Aaron Heilman, and Kevin Mulvey.

Undoubtedly, the Reds could beat that, but would they want to? What deal would you put together to beat Gomez-Heilman-Mulvey? I would think Hamilton and either Cueto or Bailey would get the deal done, but I wouldn't do it.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Dec 20, 2007 2:06 PM EST reply actions

Blanton

Half as many prospects as what it took to get Haren sounds like a better plan than overpaying for Bedard. The player most difficult to match up would be Heilman because the Reds don't have a ML reliever like that. Gomez's & Mulvey's numbers don't look like top prospects. Somewhat comparable to Dickerson & Lecure in the Reds org.

2-0 count: one pitch, one zone

by rojosoto on Dec 20, 2007 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

No

Blanton's not that good a pitcher. He relies on a big ballpark with tons of foul ground and good defense to help him. He'd get none of that here. I'm actually not sold on Haren being anything better than a 3.80-4.10 ERA guy outside NAC, either. Pitchers seem to come out of nowhere for Oakland, and regress the second Beane trades them. Mulder sucks now. Zito sucks now. Even Hudson had some struggles after leaving Oakland.

Blanton's career home ERA: 3.55
Blanton's career road ERA: 4.66

I wouldn't give any of the top 4 for him, nor would I give Hamilton or Encarnacion. Billy Beane (rightfully) wouldn't accept a package I'd be willing to trade for him.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 20, 2007 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

Could somebody tell me...

..what is/was the deal with Barry Zito?

He was great at one point, right? I mean he was fucking great, right? Even if it was only for a short period of time there is no denying that he was fangoddamntastic, right?

Can anybody tell me how he went Wes Andrson on us?

"Though as I understand it, multiple hole outhouses..." ~BubbaFan

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 20, 2007 9:53 PM EST up reply actions

Zito

He had a couple of really nice years, but I'm not sure he was anything more than a decent pitcher having a career year in a huge pitchers' park. I really think NAC has a ridiculous effect on pitchers. Take a look at Zito's Cy Young season against Harang's 2007. I'll throw in Haren this season for another comparison:

K/9:
Zito 2003: 7.14
Harang 2007: 8.47
Haren 2007: 7.76

BB.9:
Zito 2003: 3.06
Harang 2007: 2.02
Haren 2007: 2.23

HR/9:
Zito 2003: 0.94
Harang 2007: 1.09
Haren 2007: 0.97

As far as components go, Harang pretty clearly had a better season than either Zito's CY season or or Haren's 3.07 ERA season this year. The HUGE advantage Haren and Zito have at NAC is the ridiculous amount of foul territory at the stadium. They get a shit-ton of outs that reach the seats at GABP. I threw Haren in there for another comparison. Component-wise, Haren's 2007 was significantly better than Zito's 2003. However, Zito went 23-5 in '03, while Haren went 15-9 last year. Zito was pitching behind the Tejada-Giambi A's, while Haren had Nick Swisher and a bunch of rookies.

Zito wasn't a bad pitcher, but the one you remember was the perfect storm of a decent pitcher having a career year in a huge pitchers' park with a damn good defense and a great offense making him look better than he is.

He never broke 90 on the gun, so he didn't have much margin for error. He lost a little on his stuff, got behind a bad defense and bad offense, and all of a sudden he looks like shit.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 20, 2007 10:30 PM EST up reply actions

So what you're telling me is..

..that Rushmore was overrated.

Thanks for the crunching o' the numbers, BLee. (BYW: I'm assuming that you took all of Zito's stats from his '02 season when he went 23-5 and won the CY Young Award.)

I had Zito in a fantasy league back in the day and I remember that he was awesome in the second half of that season.

Nice numbers. Helluva curve. But what's he making in San Francisco? 16M+ per year?

Yeah, just sitting back trying to recapture
a little of the glory of, well time slips away
and leaves you with nothing mister but
boring stories of...

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 20, 2007 11:53 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah....

All the "Zito 2003"'s should be "Zito 2002"'s. A sixer of Red Hook ESB will do that to you.

Hell of a curve, no doubt. I think another problem was people learned to lay off the curve, and hammer the 88-mph gas. Zito's signed for $18mil/yr through 2013. His option for 2014 carries a seven fuck million dollar buyout, which I find hillarious. Decent pitcher, awful, awful contract, signed by an awful, awful GM. Old, shitty and expensive is no way to go through life.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 21, 2007 12:04 AM EST up reply actions

ESB

A sixer of the good stuff on a Thursday night! You really know how to enjoy the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl, don't ya?

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 21, 2007 9:40 AM EST up reply actions

not necessarily

Rushmore and Barry were great, but they came at a time when a lot of factors worked in their favor. We thought both were the beginning of greatness, but it turned out Zito was overly dependent on depressed upper-class white protagonists who inhabit overcomposed mise-en-scene to the tune of British invasion songs (in slow motion). Or something.

by Red Menace on Dec 21, 2007 12:04 AM EST up reply actions

No one else

liked Darjeeling Limited, I take it.

by ken on Dec 21, 2007 9:56 AM EST up reply actions

That was one of the most contrived movies...

..I've never seen.

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 21, 2007 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

that said

His 12-6 curveball was a thing of beauty--the closest I could come to seeing Bert Blyleven pitch. But yeah, he pretty much peaked with everything working for him and now is known as an overpaid mediocrity.

by Red Menace on Dec 20, 2007 11:57 PM EST up reply actions

Blanton

Joe Blanton doesn't really excite me too much (frankly anytime Krivsky starts talking with Billy Beane I get a little nervous).

Whatever happen to the talks about some of the Pirates pitchers? I remember seeing rumors a few weeks back about Hamilton for Snell, Gorzelanny, or Malhom. Personally, I wouldn't do it if I were Pittsburgh, but I'd much rather start looking at those three over Blanton (especially when you start throwing the Cueto and Bailey chips into the mix for Blanton).

Anyone have any thoughts on those guys or the realistic demands the Bucos might have for them?

by indy on Dec 21, 2007 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

I've also been wondering what happened to the Pittsburgh rumors. Maybe the Reds don't want to trade Hamilton within the division?

by pw on Dec 21, 2007 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

From Sean Welsh, via mlbtraderumors.com:

Fan message boards were overflowing today with talks that the Orioles could deal either second baseman Brian Roberts or ace left-hander Erik Bedard by the end of the day. According to Orioles president Andy MacPhail, neither is likely before the end of the year.

"I would be very surprised if anything materializes between now and the New Year," MacPhail said Thursday before sitting down to lunch.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Dec 20, 2007 3:40 PM EST reply actions

Silva of Minnesota

was signed to a four year, 44 mill contract with the Mariners tpday.

Lieber looks better and better as a free agent acquisition for the Reds.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Dec 20, 2007 9:24 PM EST reply actions

4/$48

It was initially reported as a 4/$44, but ended up being 4/$48. Never, ever, EVER underestimate the stupidity of Bill Bavasi. Crap like this (and the Soriano for Ramirez trade, and the Vidro trade) actually make me happy we have a guy like Krivsky. Now that Littlefield's been fired, Bavasi is the worst GM in baseball, and it's not even close.

"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Dec 20, 2007 9:32 PM EST up reply actions

$12M per year for Carlos Silva!?!

So, did the phrase "Gil Meche money" just become obsolete?

"Though as I understand it, multiple hole outhouses..." ~BubbaFan

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 20, 2007 9:41 PM EST up reply actions

Seriously Alan, it's not too late

You can get in on my plan of making your kid a left-handed pitcher... by any means necessary.

Although if child services shows up at your door, you tell them he just ran into a door or fell down some stairs. Kids!

by Brendanukkah on Dec 21, 2007 7:24 AM EST up reply actions

Waaay ahead of ya.

Preston's only two but what are you gonna do when a kid says he wants a log splitter for Christmas?

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 21, 2007 9:28 AM EST up reply actions

How much would you pay Lieber?

I could see him getting something like 1 year for $8 million, perhaps as an incentive-laden contract where he automatically gets a second year for $8-10m if he reaches a goal like 30+ starts. If that is the market rate for Lieber, is he worth it?

by LooseCannon on Dec 20, 2007 11:55 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe

I'd be concerned about his HR rate and conditioning, but there really isn't much else out there. I could see him getting more $$ given the market.

by ken on Dec 21, 2007 8:06 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah.

At first I thought $8M was high but that's probably pretty much what he's earned over the past few years and even though the steroid era may be drawing to a close, I think that a lot of baseball minds are still thinking of 38 as the new 34. So, if Lieber and his agent can convince a GM that he's working out/conditioning/living right, I would guess that (given the market, as Ken said) they'd be able to sign somewhere for at least $8M per. And I would be surprised if he doesn't sign at least a two year guaranteed contract.

As far as the Reds are concerned... howabout 20-25 Bret Tomko starts for less than half of that $8M?

I'm not saying. I'm just saying.

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 21, 2007 9:21 AM EST up reply actions

From Jamie Newberg:

"There have been stories locally and by a couple national writers in the past few days reporting that Texas and Cincinnati have discussed center fielder Josh Hamilton, with a couple of the articles suggesting the Reds are interested in Edinson Volquez.

Don't get your hopes up. It would take significantly more than Volquez -- or at least should -- to get Hamilton, one of the National League's most productive hitters in 2007. The company he kept statistically last year is made even more amazingly when you consider Hamilton was not only a rookie, but one who had basically been inactive for four years as he fought a drug addiction.

Just a guess, but considering what the Reds have and need, it wouldn't surprise me if their price for Hamilton -- if they're really willing to trade him -- would be something more along the lines of Volquez and Taylor Teagarden (which I wouldn't do), or Volquez and a different trade chip they can spin to Baltimore in a deal for Erik Bedard.

I love Volquez, especially after what he accomplished last summer, but surely Cincinnati will get more -- whether from Texas or someone else -- for an above-average up-the-middle defender who is a .292/.368/.554 hitter after one big league season, with five years of club control ahead. For all the upside Volquez has, he's a 3-11, 7.20 pitcher in the major leagues. Lots of promise -- and trade value -- there, but Hamilton has already crossed that line from potential to results."

I agree. I wouldn't take Volquez for Hamilton straight up.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Dec 21, 2007 5:33 PM EST reply actions