What the Reds should do. (period)

by kennythered on Dec 17, 2007 1:53 AM EST

I like the idea of using some restraint and patience. We need to make sure we don't budge on our offer for a deal to Bedard or Blanton. We can not get con-ed out of our farm because Wayne wants to keep his job or because we want to put a winner out right now. We also need to realize that by chance one of Cueto or Bailey won't pan out.
(Bailey has all the tools and a non taxing arm motion but he reminds me of Adam Dunn in that baseball and winning is not very important to him. Cueto has a huge ceiling but anyone that has seen him thinks the same thing, that he will be hurt)
Step 1 should be signing a Leiber/Colon/Prior/FreddyGarcia/etc type and making sure we do not have to resort deep into our farm system for pitching (Maloney, Cueto etc... If they are ready bring them up but if they aren't do not rush it.)
Step 2 should be figuring out some of our roster log jams.
C- I like the idea of signing Johnny Estrada at catcher for two years or trading for a decent hitting catcher. Ross is great defesively and would be a very good backup.
1b- Votto needs to start at 1st base everyday.
2b- Phillips at 2nd
ss- Gonzalez with Keppinger doing fine backup work. (We should look into finding a SS for the future whether its through the draft or trading our OF glut.
3b- EE with Keppinger helping out
LF- Dunn
CF- Freel/Hamilton/Hopper(Deal the one that gets the most, most likely Hamilton.
RF- Griffey
SP- Harang/Arroyo/Belisle/Bailey/a FA type.
Pen- Cordero closing with Weathers/Burton/Bray/Stanton/McBeth/Majewski/Coffey
Step 3 is making sure that our bullpen will hold up. I would not be against trading away on of our OF for another arm in the pen. I like Bray, Coffey, and Majewski to bounce back however.
Step 4 comes in the season. Wether or not we are in contention I think it would be a good idea to trade Griffey if he stays healthy. He could bring us in a few very solid prospects from a contender that needs a bat. If Phil Hughes/Jon Lester/ or other top prospects right now don't look as good during the season next year we could swoop in with Junior and land one of them.
Step 5 will come if we are in contention and need to add an extra player or two. I hope Stubbs has a good year in the minors because he would be great bate as I would bet he won't be too impressive as a pro.
I feel like this team could contend for next year and the future. Cueto/Bruce/Bailey could all easily be named untouchable and I feel it would not do any harm to our chances to contend next year. Yes a dominant starter would be nice but I don't think Bedard is that safe or Blanton is that good. We also need to make sure we keep focused on the June draft because that is how we got Bruce and Bailey among others and it will continue to roll out players as long as we choose the right guys.

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What about...

...last year's most productive player, Hatteberg? What's he going to do if Votto starts every day?

Rumor is that Jay Bruce will be the Reds' starting CFer this year. If not out of spring training, by June. If that's true, both Freel and Hamilton are expendable. Keppinger can take over the utility role. Hamilton needs to play every day, and should not be a reserve OFer. Hopper can do that.

The Yankees will not trade Hughes for Griffey. Even if he doesn't look as good by next year. (They know he's still raw, and don't expect him to be an ace next year.) They have an entire outfield of aging All-Star lefty outfielders, and the last thing they need is another one. The Yankees have a logjam at DH in their future, and they are not going to add to it.

Keep an eye on Seattle's farm system, and see if there's anyone you like there. I have a feeling if Griffey's traded, it will be to the Mariners.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 17, 2007 6:59 AM EST 0 recs

Uh

I'm wondering who is stupid enough to deal for Freel. I would take the proverbial warm cup of dip-spit for him and NoHo both.

Where have you gone Alex Trevino?

by Pops Daniels on Dec 17, 2007 10:50 AM EST up 0 recs

You never know

Reports from the winter meetings said the Reds were aggressively shopping Freel, and shopping Hamilton, too, though not quite as aggressively.

No word on Hatteberg, which is why I wonder if they're planning to trade Votto.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 17, 2007 11:23 AM EST up 0 recs

If Bruce starts in Center (which he won't)

Then Griffey is more expendable than Hobbs.Although it appears we'll have Jr. for at least one more year.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 18, 2007 12:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Positional logjam

Ross, Valentin, Votto, Hatteberg, Phillips, Gonzalez, Keppinger, Encarnacion, Freel, Dunn, Hopper, Hamilton, Griffey, Castro (under contract), Bruce (maybe too early), and God forbid a signing and a third catcher again.

So that's 14 and then Bruce and third catcher. A fair assumption of Griffey being unable to be dealt due to his contract and health risks and Dunn having a no-trade clause, we have limited trading chips as far as positional players. But Krivsky must figure out a trade somehow, preferably with Freel or Castro (who the hell is going to take him though?).

Krivsky probably will DFA Castro, sign a catcher, drop Hanigan from the 40-man roster and bring up Bruce. Somebody named Keppinger and/or Hopper will be really frustrated being in Louisville at the start of the year assuming 13 or 14 is his number of positional players on the 25 man roster.

by buckeye22fox on Dec 17, 2007 11:07 AM EST 0 recs

Castro

Is he likely to be healthy by April? Position players do come back from TJ surgery faster than pitchers, but that'd still be a pretty fast turn-around, no?
-j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2007 12:40 PM EST up 0 recs

We can only hope...

That the rehab takes longer.

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Dec 17, 2007 7:24 PM EST up 0 recs

ask tony harding for advice

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 17, 2007 7:47 PM EST up 0 recs

Ross

I've been thinking some about Ross lately, and he's an interesting case.

Compared to 2006, while his ground ball % was up slightly last year (bad), his line drive percentage was actually up substantially, and his strikeout rate was down.

He didn't walk nearly as much (pressing?), and his home run per fly ball rate (a stat subject to random fluctuations) was down quite a bit. But one of the biggest differences between '06 and '07 is that his BABIP was unusually low (0.226) for a guy with an 18.5% LD rate (eBABIP = 0.305).

If you give me a guy who increases his line drive percentage from 16.8% to 18.5% while at the same time cutting down on his strikeouts, I'd most certainly predict that he'd have a higher batting average the following year. That didn't happen with Ross. And BABIP indicates to me that the reason for his struggles last year had more to do with bad luck than a change in skill.

FWIW, PrOPS agrees with me, giving him an expected OPS based on his batted ball stats of 0.808, quite a step up from his true OPS of 0.670. PrOPS matched up to his actual OPS quite well in 2006 (0.967 v. 0.932), so it's not the case that it always massively overestimates Ross's performance.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting that Ross is going to revert to his 0.900+ OPS from 2006 next year. But a high 0.700's/low 0.800's OPS is not out the question, and that's acceptable production from a defensive-oriented catcher.

...

Thing is, I said almost the exact same thing about LaRue's performance in 2006. And that didn't turn out so well. So I dunno, maybe I'm wrong about Ross too. But everything I see about his batted ball stats indicates that he was hitting the ball much better than his batting line would suggest.
-j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2007 12:39 PM EST 0 recs

I think what JinAZ means is

that it doesn't make any sense to sign a catcher who had an OPS that was just 29 points higher last year and actually has a lower career OPS and is a year older than Ross and will make about what our two already signed catcher make and is a defensive liability.

Ross will be okay. You don't need killer offense from every position, but I agree that Ross will improve to acceptable levels in 2008. At the very least I would expect Ross to outperform Estrada. Heck, in 2007, if you bump Ross's BABIP up to .285 to match Estrada's, Ross's OPS+ is 94 compared to Estrada's 78.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 17, 2007 1:07 PM EST up 0 recs

since at just about every other position

the Red's have a player who hit above average, I can handle Ross catching, who can handle the pitching staff, avoid passballs/wild pitches, and gun down baserunners. Would Estrada created more runs then Ross defends?

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 17, 2007 1:22 PM EST up 0 recs

Well

Justin estimates that the difference between them defensively last season was around 14 runs. Using batting runs (for simplicity sake more than anything) on Baseball Reference, the offensive difference in 2007 between the two players was about 2 runs in Estrada's favor. So, it can easily be argued that Ross was more valuable than Estrada last season, despite his poor offensive showing.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 17, 2007 2:08 PM EST up 0 recs

Catcher defense

Those estimates of catcher defense should probably be considered conservative. The only things they assess are stolen bases, wild pitches + passed balls, and errors. And surely there's more to catching than those things. It's just that this is all I can measure with much confidence. :)

But yeah, given the defensive disparities, and the likelihood that Ross will rebound to acceptable offensive levels, I'd rather have Ross than Estrada as my starting catcher next year. -j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Dec 17, 2007 2:36 PM EST up 0 recs

The Merciless

Someone posted this on BTF. I haven't verified it, but the internet couldn't publish it if it weren't true. It absolutely blew my mind. Here's how our defensive oriented catcher stacks up.

All Time Top 10 ISO for Catchers (min. 1000 PA)

Cnt Player ISO PA From To +----+-----------------+-----+-----+----+----+ 1 Mike Piazza .237 7745 1992 2007 2 Dave Ross .225 1125 2002 2007 3 Bobby Estalella .224 1056 1996 2004 4 Roy Campanella .224 4816 1948 1957 5 Todd Hundley .209 4305 1990 2003 6 Johnny Bench .209 8669 1967 1983 7 Chris Hoiles .205 3338 1989 1998 8 Javy Lopez .204 5793 1992 2006 9 Jorge Posada .202 5679 1995 2007 10 Stan Lopata .198 3034 1948 1960

by Red Menace on Dec 18, 2007 10:01 AM EST up 0 recs

Are you saying he does steroids?

Cause that's what it looks like you're saying.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 18, 2007 10:08 AM EST up 0 recs

(raising hand incredulously)

Professor Menace? what does ISO mean?

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 18, 2007 5:33 PM EST up 0 recs

sorry

Isolated Power. It's meant as a measure of a player's raw power. Just subtract a player's batting average from his slugging percentage. Branch Rickey actually came up with it in the 50's (during a period in which he lived in his mother's cellar).

Baseball Prospectus uses a fancier way to calculate ISO as one of the pillars of PECOTA. ISO = (2B + (3B*2) + (HR*3)) / AB, but never mind all that.

So our no-hit catcher has demonstrated more raw power than any catcher other than Mike Piazza. Granted, offensive era, GABP, small sample for Ross and it's his biggest attribute, but still... damn. And yes, this was posted in a steroids thread (there's Mitchell Report namee Todd Hundley further down the list).

by Red Menace on Dec 18, 2007 7:00 PM EST up 0 recs

actually

I missed Hundley. I saw Bobby Estalella and "Crazy" Stan Lopata and my first thought was "Steroids".

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 18, 2007 7:10 PM EST up 0 recs

wow

second best EVER? all the sudden i respect dave ross a little more.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 18, 2007 8:18 PM EST up 0 recs

ME ROSS!

ME SMASH BASEBALL! SOMETIMES!
-j

On Baseball and the Reds

by JinAZ on Dec 19, 2007 1:31 PM EST up 0 recs

Basic plan is fine

I am in the camp of keeping the prospects so we'll be strong '08-'11 at least.

No to Estrada for reasons mentioned above.

Yes to Lieber/Colon/other as long as it's maximum 2 years.

Keep Bruce in the minors until he can get regular AB's. That could come if Jr/Hamilton both are injured, or if one of our starting 3 OFers is injured.

I wouldn't be shocked to see either Dunn or Griffey dealt, even if we are close. They could get a good reliever.

I don't see the Reds keeping either Dunn or Griffey. We should have 4 draft picks next year from them, plus possibly 2 more from Weathers. Next offseason, we'll be in a strong trade and FA signing position.

I like the future of the Redlegs!

The face of a child says it all, especially the mouth part

by JJ on Dec 17, 2007 2:17 PM EST 0 recs

Who has said Cueto will be hurt?

I have not seen anyone say that. He is a short pitcher.... that doesn't mean he will be hurt. He isn't super skinny (Tim Lincecum) and he has very clean mechanics. Who said that they think Cueto will get hurt and when did they say it?

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 17, 2007 4:35 PM EST 0 recs

I have stated that I am worreid about how

he will hold up over 200 innings. I have wondered if because of his stature he will end up a relief pitcher. But I have never actually seen him pitch, on TV or otherwise.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 17, 2007 7:48 PM EST up 0 recs

You can watch him pitch tonight if you want to

online. Its simple. I suggest you all go do it tonight.

Go to www.milb.com.
Click on the Multimedia link at the top.
Click on the Milb.tv free with registration green button.
Register, its free.
Select a date on the milb.tv page for a game. Cueto pitched these days for the Louisville Bats

Aug - 1 (Jay Bruce also went 3-5 with HR)
Aug - 7 (Tyler Pelland also pitches)
Aug - 12 (Bruce 1-2 with a double and 2 walks. Votto and Dickerson both go deep)

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 17, 2007 7:56 PM EST up 0 recs

Aug. 1

that's the date of my tyler pelland incident.

I suggest you watch that game. it was unreal from a reds' fan's perspective. i think aaron herr had two homers, janisch had a grand slam, bruce homered.... the only guy who didn't look good at the plate was hamilton. i remember at one point my roommate saying something along the lines of "It's sick how much talent there is on this aaa team. I mean, bruce could be an all-star in the majors right now."

plus hensley muellens was manning the first-base line.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 17, 2007 9:02 PM EST up 0 recs

oops, that game isn't available

My bad. I thought it was.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 17, 2007 10:03 PM EST up 0 recs

holding up to 200ip

Cueto pitched 196 innings this season between the minor leagues and Winter Ball. He pitched very well in both. I don't worry about him holding up so much. He is efficient with his pitches, so even though he is short, he isn't laboring to throw 6 and 7 innings like some guys.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 17, 2007 7:57 PM EST up 0 recs

maybe i am scared by

what Jeff Brantley said. He said when he started he had to pitch full effort with every pitch and just couldn't keep it up.

Also Juan Cruz makes me worry a little.

According to Rotoworld Mike Hampton is 5'10", and he held up until about 2 years ago. He would have had an excellent career if he wasn't greedy and went to Colorado.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 18, 2007 12:58 AM EST up 0 recs

Short pitchers

Pedro Martinez is the best pitcher ever (and I will argue that until the day I die). He is 5'11.
Johan Santana may be the best pitcher in baseball right now and has been pretty good and healthy for a long time. He is 6'0.
Greg Maddux is one of the best pitchers ever. He is 6'0.
Roy Oswalt is pretty solid and has not had many injury issues. He is 6'0.
Heck, Erik Bedard is all of 2 inches taller than Cueto.
Bartolo Colon gave 8 years in a row of 188 or more innings. He is 5'11.

There are plenty of short pitchers that have been fine. There is a study out there that suggests small pitchers do indeed get hurt more often, but small refers to body size (weight) and not height.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 18, 2007 1:09 AM EST up 0 recs

Short Pitchers

They got little hands
Little eyes
They walk around telling great big lies
They got little noses
Tiny little teeth
They put great effort on their nasty little labrums

Don't want no short pitchers round here...

by Red Menace on Dec 18, 2007 9:58 AM EST up 0 recs