Johnny Cueto Might Have Been The Dealbreaker For Haren

Haren was wicked expensive

Arizona gave up four of their top eight prospects, including their #1 (Carlos Gonzalez). It was a deal Arizona could afford make, because they are set in all the positions they gave up.

The Yankees are bummed, because Haren was their fallback if they can't land Santana. And Bedard is not an option, being in the same division.

It sounds to me like the Reds do value Cueto more than Bailey. Supposedly, they offered Bailey, Votto, and Hamilton for Bedard.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 16, 2007 5:43 PM EST reply actions

Haren

Arizona's good prospects were called up last year. At the time of the trade, their top 10 couldn't touch the Reds'.

by Blue on Dec 16, 2007 7:48 PM EST up reply actions

Becuase Justin Upton barely graduated this year. The difference between the Dbacks #1 and the Reds #1 is about the same difference between Jay Bruce right now and Joey Votto at the end of 2006. C Gonzo is a good prospect, but he isn't anywhere near the type of prospect that the Reds have in Bruce, Bailey or Cueto. Right now, Joey Votto is a close comparison in terms of value. Gonzo has the higher upside, but his floor is MUCH lower than Votto's is.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 17, 2007 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

that would have been

too much for Bedard

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Dec 18, 2007 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

Bedard

If Fay is correct in what he is saying, I don't see the Reds getting Bedard. I can understand not wanting to part with Bruce as Krivsky should be fired if he does however I don't know of a package the Reds could use to land Bedard without giving up Cueto. I don't think Bailey, Votto, Hamilton, ? will get it done now.

Look at what Arizona had to give up to get Haren! I'm not saying it will hurt them dearly however agreed that Krivsky will have to give up something to get something and after that deal was made the others will only sky-rocket.

For the Reds, batting ninth and pitching today Jon Lieber.

by Simpson on Dec 16, 2007 6:08 PM EST reply actions

The high price of pitching

An unpopular angle on this, but I think the Reds should be shopping Arroyo. And maybe Harang.
Think what we could get!

by superjerryb on Dec 16, 2007 6:16 PM EST reply actions

No way

How can we give up a guy with this kind of talent?

(Though I kinda like Dunn's better.)

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 16, 2007 6:21 PM EST up reply actions

burbank's is the best

I love that guy

by Blue on Dec 16, 2007 7:46 PM EST up reply actions

LOL

Though as I understand it, multiple hole outhouses weren't meant to be used by more than one person at a time. Rather, the holes were different sizes, so you could pick one that fit your butt. Instead of "one size fits all."

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 16, 2007 8:11 PM EST up reply actions

Art Class.

Those look like they were done in a high school art class.. "Today kids, we are going to draw our houses.. Now here is what you do...."

-Wake me when it is aught eight.

by snohio on Dec 17, 2007 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

Except...

...for Sean Casey's. His looks like a fourth grader's.

And Thom Brennaman's look like a kindergartener's. :-D

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 17, 2007 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

actually

I drew tHom's for him.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 17, 2007 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

That just makes me think...

that a "celebrity" (professional athletes included) could shit on a piece of paper and it would generate at least $100..

As for Brenneman's piece, I really hope Ella or Luke drew that.. Or maybe Bear.. Casey's - well I don't know what to think. Maybe he scribbled that while waiting for breakfast to come..

-Wake me when it is aught eight.

by snohio on Dec 17, 2007 1:17 PM EST up reply actions

HAAAA - that is hysterical!

That's one of the funniest things I've seen posted here - and there have been a lot of funny things posted here.

Are those for real??!!

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Dec 17, 2007 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

Yes, they are for real

Trent has the story. He was actually in the clubhouse when the guys were working on those.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 17, 2007 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

too bad Brett Tomko still isn't around

not for his pitching. He was also a decent artist, or so he claimed. I remeber on an interview he had after a steller outing, which was proceeded by a few bad starts, he said that after his last start he just went to his hotel and drew pictures.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 17, 2007 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, looks like tomko has some talent

and a crush on Nomar.

http://losangeles.dodgers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070307&content_id=1832928&vkey=spt2 007news&fext=.jsp&c_id=la

by Lakeman on Dec 17, 2007 3:40 PM EST up reply actions

Wow

He's pretty good.

He could quit his day job. Bet he could making a living doing illustration/portraiture. He's better than the guys the baseball card companies hire to do paintings of players.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 17, 2007 4:12 PM EST up reply actions

glad to know that memory was correct

and I didn't just make it up.

In 1998 I was an "honory bat boy". It was when Tomko was an up and coming pitcher. When I was in the clubhouse the tour guide asked me who my favorite pitcher was, I said "Brett Tomko", she couldn't find his picture on the wall. But she was kind of an idiot. She referred to the bullpen as the "practice mounds" where managers would send the pitcher when he needs to practice.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 17, 2007 7:45 PM EST up reply actions

honory bat boy

What is Steve Garvey's nickname in Japan, Alex?

by Man Mountain on Dec 18, 2007 2:09 PM EST up reply actions

In his hotel

drawing pictures of mountain tops
With him on top
Lemon yellow sun
Arms raised in a V
And the dead lay in pools of maroon below

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 17, 2007 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

Leave me out of this.

by jch24 on Dec 17, 2007 3:53 PM EST up reply actions

NO!

How would they go about replacing Harang and Arroyo in the rotation. The Red's are trying to compete not rebuild. That would be an awful awful awful awful awful awful awful awful awful awful awful decision.

Did I say it would be awful?

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 16, 2007 7:37 PM EST up reply actions

I say try to trade Harag to the Tigers for Ordonez

and Cabrera and see if Mlb will let them hit the ball to home plate instead of pitch it.

by The Crushinator on Dec 16, 2007 7:41 PM EST reply actions

good idea

by greg456 on Dec 16, 2007 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't mind Haren, but....

...how long would we have him? If he's gone in a couple of years, we just might have given up 5-10 years of a solid starting pitcher. Cueto to me is the one person that is most untouchable in trade talks, even more so than Homer Bailey. I'm glad we didn't trade him, unless Haren was going to be pitching here for the next decade at the same price (or less) than Harang's yearly salary.

by tonywf on Dec 16, 2007 10:51 PM EST reply actions

Haren

Haren is signed through his arb years. He'll make 4M in 08, 5.5M in 09 and 6.75M(o) in 10.

by Red Menace on Dec 17, 2007 1:14 AM EST up reply actions

I agree

It's been said a million times, but we haven't produced a stud starting pitcher out of our farm system since Browning. Having the rights to these young guys is vital to a team like the Reds that won't spend the money that some other clubs do. I say we roll with what we've got.

by Lakeman on Dec 17, 2007 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

At this point....

...I'd have to agree. Starting pitching is too much of a premium and the asking price overly steep. I cannot remember the last time the Reds had two really good starting pitching prospects like this (you'd have to go back to the late '70s/early '80s). Assuming that they can and will develop, which you never can with this club, I'd rather see them here than get someone like Haren (who will almost certainly be gone to greener pastures in three years).

by tonywf on Dec 19, 2007 2:54 PM EST up reply actions

I would give up more for Haren than Bedard

because while Bedard is better, he isn't as reliable, won't give you as many innings and you only have him for 2 years compared to 3 for Haren. If the centerpieces for Haren were Gonzalez and Anderson I think the Reds can match that with Votto and Maloney. The problem is the Orioles seem to want Cueto/Bailey along with a Votto, Maloney and a Hamilton. The market was set by the Haren trade and the Orioles are asking for a whole lot more than the market is currently telling you that its worth.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 17, 2007 4:33 PM EST reply actions

Well Doug

you seem to have the dirt on this!

Frankly, just start both Cueto and Bailey to start 2008, and if one of them really struggles while the Reds are in it, get somebody in July when teams are dumping contracts.

It's a sellers market right now, and while it would be nice if the Reds get Bedard, or had gotten Haren, the price seems too steep for the Reds. Limited number of years for Bedard; more years for Haren.

Get the fans excited. Throw 'em in and start them both. Just tell Dusty to put 'em on a pitch count and see what happens. Just don't jack the fans around with Tomko or somebody useless like that. I'd rather see Tom Shearn starting than see the Reds get Tomko or some similar worthless has-been.

Yogi Berra said: "predictions are tough, especially when they are about the future".

by Lonesome George on Dec 17, 2007 6:48 PM EST up reply actions

One flaw...

With this plan: The concepts "Dusty Baker as Reds' manager" and "pitch count for young Reds' pitchers" cannot coexist in the same universe.

At least it wasn't Grady Little.

by Paul Householder on Dec 17, 2007 7:22 PM EST up reply actions

There's a new theory...

...that holds that pitch count is the problem, not the solution.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 17, 2007 7:28 PM EST up reply actions

Three responses

Doug, I still don't agree that the market has really been set. McPhail does not need to trade Bedard now.
I wonder if the Reds would even really have Bedard for two years. If they don't win the Central in 2008, will they hold onto him for 2009 knowing they can't sign him after that. I suspect the pressure will be unbearable to trade him. And I do not think we can even win the Central in 2008 with or without Bedard. Actually I think our only chance is without him, on the slim chance both Bailey and Cueto (one of whom will be gone otherwise) have big years--remote, but not impossible.
I also wonder whether there will be accountability. I would say that if Krivsky trades Bailey or Cueto and the Reds do not win the Central in 2008, then that should mean Krivsky's firing, end of story. Will it actually be seen that way? I wonder.

by HokieRed on Dec 17, 2007 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

We don't have to go after Bedard either though.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 18, 2007 12:30 AM EST up reply actions

couldn't Cincinnati get Blanton for less

then Haren? Haren is considered to be superior to Blanton, but Blanton would slyde in great between Harang and Arroyo, giving the Red's a solid 1-2-3 punch. Put him in the NL, and his 3.95 ERA drops to 3.50. He has good periphals, gives up few homeruns, which bodes well for GABP. Stubbs, Votto, and Maloney may get Blanton. That gives Oakland with two major league ready players, and a high celling toolsy outfielder. Plus the Red's can then let Hatteberg start in 2008.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 18, 2007 12:51 AM EST up reply actions

Blanton

Is not very good away from the extreme pitchers park that is Oakland. He would likely post a 4.50-4.80 ERA in the NL in this park. He doesn't strike people out, which means guys put the ball in play a lot against him, with this defense, that is not good. His hit rate would go up, his HR rate would go up and when those two combine it negates anything you would gain by facing a pitcher in the line up.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 18, 2007 1:01 AM EST up reply actions

I don't buy it

His .679 OPSA suggests that his overall ERA is the product of a little bad luck. Could have easily been 3.50. He gave up 10 HRs in 120 IP on the road. That's not bad. He owned the NL in 3 starts. I think he'd be good for us.

I don't think moving to a small park hurts a pitcher as long as they're not giving up home runs. It should actually help a pitcher because there is less area for hits to fall in.

by Blue on Dec 18, 2007 2:13 AM EST up reply actions

Macafee versus GABP

Despite the fact that its in the AL, Macafee still posted a 4.20 park adjusted league average ERA. GABP, with the pitchers batting and all, posted a 4.66 park adjusted ERA. The parks alone are worth about half a run in ERA. Given the Reds crappy outfield defense and a pitcher who allows the ball in play a lot, it probably isn't going to help out much either. Its not the home runs that worry me as much as the horrible defense in the outfield. Combined Adam Dunn and Griffey cost the Reds about 20-30 runs, or 2-3 wins compared to just an average defensive player at their positions.

Still lets look at the 2007 park factors for each place.
We will go Macafee plain / GABP in bold.

Runs - 0.833 / 1.095
HR - 0.786 / 1.351
2B - 0.786 / 1.051
3B - 1.259 / 0.851

So the only thing the bigger outfield is really causing problems for in Macafee is more triples.

Blanton has pitched well in interleague play, but its a grand total of 78 innings we are talking about here. On that same note, he has pitched in 5 NL parks in his career. Petco, RFK, AT&T, Shea and Minute Maid park. The park factors for runs in those stadiums last season were:
0.987
0.916
0.901
0.874
0.755

All of them were big time pitchers parks, especially when you want to compare them to GABP which is sitting well above 1.000. All of those parks play into what he does well, keep the ball inside the park ( MLB ranks were 14, 20, 24, 29 and 30 last year in HR park factors).

I think that the guy is a bad fit for the Reds if we are looking for a guy between Harang and Arroyo, but a solid fit for someone between Arroyo and Belisle.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 18, 2007 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

do you know

if there is a chart listing the correlation coefficients for certain pitching stats and how they correlate to R or ER allowed? I know that there is one for team offense, showing that SLG and OBP have the highest correlation to runs scored.

I'd like to know how OPSA fits in. It seems that it should be the most telling stat.

Also, when applying the park factors to Blanton's ERA, shouldn't we just use Blanton's numbers while pitching at Macafee, as opposed to his total numbers? He had a 2.69 ERA at home last season, adding half a run for park factors takes him to a 3.19 ERA, and defense takes him to a 3.50 ERA, or so?

by Blue on Dec 18, 2007 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

A couple of things

I was gonna run some correlations for you, but the Lahman database does not have enough info for pitchers to calculate OPS against. I would guess there is a decent correlation, but I would bet that it doesn't tell us as much about the pitcher as we would expect. That is, I bet if we looked, we'd find that much like BABIP, OPS against fluctuates year-by-year for a pitcher much more than it does for a hitter. Look at Blanton, his OPS against of .679 last season, but it was .804 the previous year, and then .694 in 2005.

I think if you want to evaluate the future value of a pitcher, you are still better off looking at strikeout rate, walk rate, and home run rate since they are more team independent, theoretically. From that perspective, Blanton is a bit of a mixed bag. His k-rate is low (5.24 for his career), but then so is his walk rate (2.37 BB/9, but only 1.57 last year!). His HR rate is nice (0.81), but he benefits from pitching in a large park some. He's also a pretty good ground ball pitcher, so that helps his HR rate, but I would expect to see him to give up 5 or 6 more home runs in Cincinnati just based on the number of flyballs he gives up.

I like Blanton. I'd put him in Arroyo's class as a pitcher. I think he'd do alright in the NL, but I could see his ERA jumping a little bit in a move to GABP (about .5 run overall). He's somewhat dependent on the defense behind him, but he doesn't put too many on base for free. That's huge. Ultimately, I'd say the pitcher he looks the most like (statistically) is Carlos Silva (though he strikes out nearly 2 more batters a game). If Silva is worth 4/44, then I think a cheap Blanton's trade value might be worth more than we think.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 18, 2007 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

many thanks

by Blue on Dec 18, 2007 8:40 PM EST up reply actions

Not enough for Blanton

The Reds would have to part with either Bailey/Cueto, or they would have to throw a whole bunch of prospects the A's way. To get 3 years of Blanton from Beane, the Reds will have to throw a bunch of B/B+ prospects, or an A- prospect and a couple B prospects.

By the way, Votto isn't going to Oakland since they have a better, younger, left-handed, 1st base prospect that showed his stuff last September.

The face of a child says it all, especially the mouth part

by JJ on Dec 18, 2007 12:31 PM EST up reply actions

Barton probably isn't better...

but yeah, I doubt they have a whole lot of interest in Votto either way. The two are fairly similar in status, with Votto the better player right now but Barton younger with more upside.

The A's might also not be interested in Hamilton at this point. They've got a lot of solid young outfielders now. Then again, I doubt Beane is the type to decline a potentially great player because it might cause a logjam.

by Geki on Dec 18, 2007 2:25 PM EST up reply actions

I think

The Reds need to start preaching to these other teams that CGonzo and the other 5 "baby 'Backs" are no where near the talent level of Bruce/Bailey/Cueto. Votto may even be a much better prospect than CGonzo so teams should be very happy to land Votto/Hamilton/Maloney/and one or two low level prospects for Bedard. I think it is obvious that Votto has a chance to be an All-Star at 1st Base and Hamilton/Maloney are pretty proven throw ins. Teams just see Bruce/Bailey/Cueto and they dream of landing one of them but wouldn't a package of Votto/Hamilton/Maloney/and one or two low level prospects be better than or just as good as what the A's got for Haren and much much better than what the Marlins got for DTrain.(Marlins getting screwed is a complete other story though.) Teams need to wake up and realize you will never get a teams top prospect for anyone.

by kennythered on Dec 17, 2007 9:58 PM EST reply actions

of the two teams reportedly after Bedard

both are better off holding onto their prospects.

The M's need Clement, Morrow, and Jones for 18 years more than they need Bedard for 2. Those guys are all pretty damn good and fill 3 very important needs on a baseball team.

Same for the Reds with Cueto, Bailey, Hamilton, and Bruce.

Whatever depth we have right now will be gone after the 2008 offseason if we trade these guys, leaving us with more holes to fill, but no minor leaguers to step up adequately.

by Blue on Dec 18, 2007 12:49 AM EST reply actions

anybody see homer's picture at reds.com?

he is pitching, but looks scary as hell, like every muscle in his body is strained. He looks like he is close to death, really fucking scary.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 18, 2007 9:41 AM EST reply actions

always thought Bailey looked awful during delivey

but do you really want to look like a goofy clown when throwing the heat?

By the way it is the same face he makes when slaughtering deer, only the eyebrows flare a little more.

by jacob brumfield on Dec 18, 2007 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

W/o a strong #3 starter the Reds won't be in it

come July. So no need to try and pick up a castoff salary at that time. Homer is going to have show a lot more than he has so far and Ceuto is totally untried if they are to be the answers for '08. A tried and true #3 puts the Reds in a position to pick up help in July, if needed.

If only we could move Griffey, free up salary and let Bruce have his shot.We might be able to 'buy' Bedard w/traded prospects (Bailey/Votto/Hamilton).

I saw Hamilton play in person several time last season and he truly has an aura of greatness. His swing, his confidence, his arm and speed are more than impressive. I find it amazing that he isn't more sought after (despite small injuries and his 'habit'). Anyteam who needs a center fielder and has a decent pitcher to trade should jump at this guy.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 18, 2007 10:06 AM EST reply actions

not nesacairly

The Phillies made it all the way to the playoffs with a patchwork rotation behind Hamels. I am not saying that is preferable but they did it. I still like the odds that between Bailey, Belisle, and Cueto that one of them will step up and be a solid pitcher in 2008.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 18, 2007 1:20 PM EST up reply actions

I hate picking on spelling

but damn, justin, that is the most out-there spelling of a word I have seen on this site. I think it's time for you to switch to Firefox with built-in spellcheck. :)

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 18, 2007 1:38 PM EST up reply actions

What's wrong with picking on Spelling?

by Red Menace on Dec 18, 2007 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

all the bests bits are gone

by the time it gets to the table.

by Man Mountain on Dec 18, 2007 2:10 PM EST up reply actions

you can pick on my spelling all you want

but i know slyde is spelled with an I not a y.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 18, 2007 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

not in the Latin.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 18, 2007 9:14 PM EST up reply actions

once again i am out dueled.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 18, 2007 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

I did (Thanx to Slyfw) and I spell good.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 19, 2007 2:32 PM EST up reply actions

you guys are funny

I really like this place.
I said trade arroyo.
Only maybe harang,
but you could put them both out there.
Never say never.
if you look at the line ups in the central, i think we've got the best, far and away.
Would hate to see either go, particularly harang, but jeez, like the man said, a seller's market.
Gonna be a wild season.

by superjerryb on Dec 18, 2007 8:27 PM EST reply actions

A seller's market, yes

but winning teams don't stockpile prospects for the sake of having prospects. Both Harang and Arroyo are productive, comparatively cheap, and relatively young. They are not the kind of players that you trade. They are the kind of players that you build around. Trading them only makes sense if the Reds are on the way down or there is a need to open up some serious payroll or fill a bigger hole. The biggest hole is the pitching staff. The Reds are on the way up if they can just build upon that pitching staff, not remove the only solid pieces from it.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Dec 18, 2007 8:52 PM EST up reply actions

Heer, Heer!

Tell it like is and is gonna be, Slyde. Prospects are just that (except Bruce of course who is the next Willie Mays, Jr. and Eric the D rolled into one). To trade a prospect for a couple of years of an excellent Harang level starter is brilliant - downright grat.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 19, 2007 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

is this a poem?

cuz it really gets away from you in line 6--in terms of prosody, at least. The sense gets away from you in line 3.

by Man Mountain on Dec 18, 2007 11:12 PM EST up reply actions

Bedard

And Bedard is not an option, being in the same division.

I keep reading that everywhere, accepted as obvious common sense, but something smells. In what way is an in-division trade a dealbreaker here? If the Orioles give the Yankees an ace... you really think THAT will be what prevents Baltimore from... um... winning the division? If the Yankees give too many prospects to Baltimore... they might start to be afraid of the Orioles? It makes no sense.

More realistically: How does the number of games the Yankees win impact the Orioles wild-card chances? Why would they care?

ScoutingBook: Top Baseball Prospects, Closer Watch, more!

by scoutingbook on Dec 19, 2007 3:01 AM EST reply actions

Well...

It's possible, but it would be insanely expensive. That's just the way it works. Trades within the division can happen, but not often, and when they do, you can expect to pay a premium.

I'm sure the Orioles, just like the Reds, hope to win the division. Eventually, if not next season. And even if they don't, they don't want to lose any more than necessary. It's bad for business.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 19, 2007 5:58 AM EST up reply actions

I don't follow

Who would pay a premium? Lets say teams A and B are in Divison C. Team A trades Player X to Team B for Player Y. Who paid the premium?

by Lakeman on Dec 19, 2007 9:13 AM EST up reply actions

Z

by Red Menace on Dec 19, 2007 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

OK I get the ZX squared part....

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 19, 2007 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

Theat's Sigma Chi not Chi Phi

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 19, 2007 2:36 PM EST up reply actions

That's where my understanding of math went south,

when they started putting letters in the equations. I need numbers. You make words out of letters.

And pie aren't squared. Pie are round. Cornbread are squared.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Dec 19, 2007 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

That's funny

I was always lousy at math, until they started using letters instead of numbers. Once I didn't have to do that cruddy arithmetic, I loved math.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 19, 2007 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

same

i sucked at reading when i was in elementary school, and was great at math

when they put letters in math i sucked at it, but my grades in english went up.

Hurray severe ADHD, and perception problems.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 19, 2007 5:00 PM EST up reply actions

Forget the alphabet soup

Say, the Orioles trade Erik Bedard. They've already said they won't trade him within the division. Does that mean that absolutely, positively, they won't trade him in the division? Of course not. But the cost is going to be higher for the Yankees or the Red Sox than it would be for, say, the Reds. The Yankees would have to blow them away with an offer.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 19, 2007 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

why does Baltimore care

they will not be competive in 2008 or 2009, the years of service the Yankee's will be reciving from Bedard because of Balitmore. If anything I would be more weary about trading prospects to Baltimore if I were the Yankees. They could turn that franchise around for years to come. I am not saying they will, but they could.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 19, 2007 8:40 PM EST up reply actions

The Yankees...

...are pretty deep in talent now. They can spare prospects, believe it or not. And prospects are only prospects; some, even most, don't pan out.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 19, 2007 9:10 PM EST up reply actions

The Orioles have dealt with NYY and Boston.

Although the deals were of a smaller scale than anything involving Erik Bedard, Baltimore made one trade with the Yankees and one with Boston last year. The Orioles sent Chris Britton to New York for Jaret Wright and dealt Javy Lopez to Boston for Adam Stern.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Dec 19, 2007 9:13 PM EST up reply actions

Here's the way they look at it

From today's Jayson Stark column:

...The Twins should make it a priority to move Santana out of their league. "Remember, the Twins are looking to compete, too," he said. "They're gearing up with good young players, and they're going to be good. But if they trade him to the Red Sox or Yankees, those teams are so deep, it wouldn't even really take a chunk out of them, or not that much of a chunk, anyway. Then they may run into the Yankees or Red Sox in the playoffs one year and wind up in a series where Santana puts them over the top.
"But if they trade him to the National League, they've only got a 1-in-16 chance of running into him in the World Series. So to me, if it's close, that would have to be factored in."

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 19, 2007 5:27 PM EST up reply actions

Checked out your prospects site

And its not bad.

But your credibility is a bit shaky when you list Max Scherzer, who is currently the Diamondbacks No. 2 prospect, at No. 69...among right-handed pitchers! And you list him with the Royals!

Other than that...not a bad site.

by cesarhernandez on Dec 19, 2007 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

Rosenthal on the Haren trade

"The Reds were persistent but also could not get in the mix, particularly when they would not discuss outfielder Jay Bruce. Several other clubs do not value right-hander Homer Bailey as highly as the Reds do in trade proposals. ..."

by pw on Dec 19, 2007 9:59 AM EST reply actions

Two things

So what if we wouldn't discuss Bruce. The Diamondbacks didn't give up Justin Upton, why would we give up the equivalent? Instead they gave up the equivalent of roughly a Joey Votto (not as good right now, but could be better one day. Higher Cieling, much lower floor) in Carlos Gonzalez. I fail to see how that kept us out of the 'mix'.
If (some) other teams don't value Bailey as highly as our guys do, then by all means keep him. There is no sense in not getting the value you that you place on someone, specifically a young player that you control for a long time, just because they don't place him on the same level you do.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 19, 2007 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

I agree

but I can't believe how much Homer's stock seems to have fallen after his brief stint with the Reds. By offering him instead of Cueto have the Reds lost confidence in him as well? Or do they think Homer's more of a longer term project than Cueto?

by pw on Dec 19, 2007 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

I wonder

if the Reds don't value Homer as much as they used. It seems like this is the case, since they seem to be actively shopping him. Maybe they're trying to project that they still value him highly, but other teams aren't buying it.

by Lakeman on Dec 19, 2007 10:54 AM EST up reply actions

Actively shopping.....

seems like a bit of an overstatement. He has been mentioned in 2 deals, for two players who are TOR ACES. I doubt he gets moved for a guy like Joe Blanton even in a straight up trade.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 19, 2007 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

I think that's true

Fay said that last year, Homer was untouchable but Bruce was not. This year, it's the opposite. Bruce is untouchable, Homer is not.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 19, 2007 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

Cueto is being offered too

In deals... he isn't off the table at all. I think the Reds brass is pretty split on Bailey/Cueto. There are a few who think Cueto > Bailey, on the flip side there are even a few more who think Bailey > Cueto. Not the worst situation to have.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 19, 2007 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

Homer Bailey

Reading the scouting reports and such, it seems that he's kind of an odd duck. Scouts and stat-heads both seem to find him hard to project. He doesn't match up well with other pitchers. Doesn't mean he won't be an ace, but there's just a lot more uncertainty with him than with, say, Phil Hughes.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 19, 2007 4:59 PM EST up reply actions

Motivation

A couple of years ago Homer's desire "to be the best pitcher he can be" was also being questioned. He seemed to take a casual approach, much like people say about Dunn.

by pw on Dec 19, 2007 8:13 PM EST up reply actions

it's the puritanical american culture

that tells us "layed back" means lazy. personally, i think it's refreshing when a ballplayer doesnt breathe, eat, and sleep the Game. he's a human being, one who likes to hunt, drink beer, and court the occasional mistress. i can relate to that. sleeping at the gym and doing squat thrusts all day, that i cant relate to.

is it April yet?

by Charlie Scrabbles on Dec 19, 2007 10:29 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah

but somebody who's paying the bills might have a different opinion.

by pw on Dec 20, 2007 8:49 AM EST up reply actions

You can't relate to multiple squat thrusts?

Maybe that's why you're not a MLB player.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 20, 2007 10:43 AM EST up reply actions

I've heard it said

that Homer has never shown the inclination to work to become a great pitcher. Not physical labor, but the understanding of how and what to throw in given situations, rather than relying on the gas. I don't know if that's true, but it's typical of so many pitchers who never truly learn to pitch until arm surgeries rob them of their heat (the Paul Wilson brigade).

by Red Menace on Dec 20, 2007 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

I remeber reading quotes of Bailey

that pretty much said.

My fastball is enough, when I am in trouble I will just blow it by the hitters.

That is a step above being confident, that is just being stupid. He said in a recent quote that he doesn't try to work for others goals, that he has his own. I was kinda hoping being beat around a little would have helped him realize that 96MPH or 86MPH, he has to throw more then a fastball, he has to locate his fastball, and he has to have a breaking ball, and some other sorta off spead pitch, like a changeup, or somthing to that effect.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 20, 2007 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

that quote

I know which quote you are talking about. The question was posed as 'You are 0-2 on a batter, what pitch are you going to throw to get him out on'?

Homers response was a high fastball. If he hits it, then more power to him (paraphrasing). He then said a curveball in the dirt would likely be next.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 20, 2007 7:03 PM EST up reply actions

Well homer hasn't need to learn to pitch yet.

He's been on cruise control all the way to the majors. He doesn't quite have the stuff to consistently blow it by MLBers.Homer needs a controllable offspeed/breaking ball and to develop a comprehensive pitch by pitch strategy relative to specific hitters, hitting situations and how to change it up as he goes through the batting order for the 2nd and 3rd time.This will take at least a year at the MLB level.

"Cool Papa Bell hit a line drive right past my ear. I turned around and saw the ball hit his ass sliding into second." - Satchel Paige

by Madville on Dec 20, 2007 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

I think...

...he might need another pitch or two. As others have said, you need three good pitches to succeed at the big league level, and Homer has maybe 1-1/2.

I think he could benefit from more time in the minors, if he concentrates on something other than his fastball. But maybe he won't; he might be forced to, in the big leagues. (Though I also think he has other things he could learn in the minors, like fielding his position and holding runners on.)

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 20, 2007 5:22 PM EST up reply actions

remember the lecture we got

from the feller at camden yards? bedard learned his second-best pitch from a major league teammate. I think the big show is the best place for homer to work on his repertoire. perhaps harang could teach him some off-speed stuff.

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Dec 20, 2007 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

That's true

Scott Proctor used to be known for his laser-straight fastball. Six or seven years in the minors, and his fastball was still laser-straight.

Then the Pitcher We Try Not to Mention taught him to "pull the string" and like that, he became a big leaguer.

Of course, some guys have no problem learning pitches in the minors. Chien-Ming Wang had 8 or 10. He's one of those guys who loves to learn new pitches. The Yankees told him to stick with only four. He's known as a sinkerballer now, but he said in a recent interview that that became his best pitch because the Yankees thought it was easier on the shoulder. (He had shoulder problems a couple of years ago.)

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 20, 2007 8:33 PM EST up reply actions

I thought

Homer's curve was supposed to be outstanding?

by pw on Dec 20, 2007 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

It is outstanding

It is far and away his best pitch. When major league batters swung at the pitch (and it was a strike 67% of the time he threw it) they only got a hit 8% of the time they swung at it.... and only 1 XBH, which was a double. People aren't hitting his curveball when its on.... and it was on quite a bit, especially the second half of the year when he returned to the majors after his DL stint.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 20, 2007 7:11 PM EST up reply actions

Homer has 2 very good pitches right now

His change up sucks. his curve is dominating and his fastball is really good too, when he controls it. See the above post for the pitches and their strike percentages.

As far as needing more time in AAA, I think either he needs to be in the majors to learn, or be sent to AAA and be told what he is going to throw every pitch (which likely wouldn't go over so well) and have 50% fastballs and 50% everything else.

Just sending him to AAA and letting him pitch doesn't do much good. Hitters down there can't touch guys with his stuff with any type of consistency so the pitchers don't learn, they just keep doing what is working.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 20, 2007 7:09 PM EST up reply actions

exactly

It's like when you're so ahead of the game in elementary school that they need to skip you a grade. Then eventually you're getting wedgies left and right, but you're so small you can't make any sports team or get a date. Wait, what was my point again?

by Red Menace on Dec 20, 2007 11:51 PM EST up reply actions

RE: wedgies left and right

Damn. And I thought they hurt like hell just going up and over the top of my head.

"Breakfast, broke it fast. She was in my English class. Asked for notes, rocked my boat. Jenifa..."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Dec 20, 2007 11:56 PM EST up reply actions

I think he needs to be lit up like a pinball to

change. When you are dominating people why would you change? If he gets ripped by Major League hitters, he will see that just a 96 MPH fastball isn't good enough.

The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Dec 20, 2007 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah.... he does have the stuff to blow past guys

As for the 'he needs a controllable offspeed/breaking pitch', the kid threw his curveball for strikes 67% of the time last year according to the pitch f/x data. Guys don't throw strikes much more often than that. His main issue was throwing his fastball for a strike (61% of the time) and his change up (50% of the time). If anything, Homer needs to be healthy and control his fastball just a little bit more. We will see both things next year.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Dec 20, 2007 7:06 PM EST up reply actions

That's what...

...Al Leiter says. If you'll forgive my mentioning his name. He says he didn't learn to pitch until injury drove him to it.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Dec 20, 2007 5:16 PM EST up reply actions

kudos

I like that you recognize the problems with his name in these parts. You're one of the good ones.

by Red Menace on Dec 20, 2007 5:36 PM EST up reply actions

More from Rosenthal:

"The Orioles, sources say, have slowed down trade talks involving left-hander Erik Bedard, apparently dissatisfied by the offers they are receiving. The Mariners, Reds and Mets are among the teams most interested in Bedard, but the A's return for Haren set a high standard. ... The Braves and Rockies were among the teams that showed late interest in Haren, but neither club stood a chance of matching the Diamondbacks' offer."

Fine. If the Reds can't get the value they desire, or at least very close to it, then keep Bailey and Cueto ... and Votto ... and Hamilton ... and Encarnacion. These guys are the makings of a dynamic young ballclub. Trade talks can be revisited and with the young talent the Reds have, opportunites will present themselves down the road.

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Dec 19, 2007 11:30 AM EST reply actions