BA's Reds Top 10

by Geki on Nov 21, 2007 5:22 PM EST

Baseball America is releasing the NL first this year, meaning we get the Reds list about two months before we did last year. Here's the top 10, with a quick summary of each guy from me:

Jay Bruce, of - The best prospect in baseball -- and it's not close. Bruce does everything well and JJ Cooper sees him as a future hall of famer.
Homer Bailey, rhp - Though he struggled in the majors last year, he still projects as an ace-level talent. It may take a few years for him to adjust, as he's still pretty raw, but anyone who doubts him now is probably gonna feel pretty stupid in 2010.
Joey Votto, 1b/of - Though Votto is unlikely to be a perennial all-star, I like him as a consistent .850+ OPS guy in the majors.
Johnny Cueto, rhp - More polished than Homer and likely to make a major league appearance at some point next year. He's presently tearing up the Dominican Winter League as well.
Drew Stubbs, of - His bat really came alive the last month of last season, and his defense was already elite. If the hitting improvement is real, Stubbs is gonna need to change his name to Studds.
Devin Mesoraco, c - Didn't do much in the minors this past year, but he was battling injury and still showed off his nice tools. He's nowhere near the majors.
Todd Frazier, ss - Personally, I like Frazier more than both Stubbs and Mesoraco. He's not gonna stick at SS, but I think he'll be an impact bat at 3B. I expect we'll see him in the majors by the middle of 2009 as well.
Juan Francisco, 3b - Huge raw power, huge lack of plate discipline, huge arm, and huge amount of strikeouts. I like Adrian Beltre as a comparison for him, personally.
Josh Roenicke, rhp - He's got a fastball that runs into the high-90s and some dirty secondary stuff, and he's a converted outfielder so he hasn't been pitching long. He's a future closer, in both mine and BA's opinions.
Matt Maloney, lhp - Not as good as the numbers look following his trade to the Reds, but he should be a decent back of the rotation starter and he's close to major league ready right now.

I can't share everything said in the scouting reports or the chat, but I think I could answer any specific questions about the system that you might have, either through BA or through my own knowledge.

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Devin Mesoraco

A few of my friend's teammates at Notre Dame Acadamy in Middleburg,Va played on a summer team with Mesoraco they said he's a straight beast.

Im a beast!!!!!!!!!!!

by bdeck2133 on Nov 21, 2007 5:34 PM EST 0 recs

so...

are you devin mesoraco?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Nov 21, 2007 5:56 PM EST up 0 recs

I heard he was a questioning beast

A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 21, 2007 6:35 PM EST up 0 recs

A curious beast indeed

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 21, 2007 6:43 PM EST up 0 recs

also,

do you guys think my attendance drives these diva village ads?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Nov 21, 2007 5:59 PM EST 0 recs

Yes,

so stick around.

by ken on Nov 21, 2007 6:54 PM EST up 0 recs

you need to post more often

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 21, 2007 6:55 PM EST up 0 recs

Yes

You always have really nice posts.

by ctnyc on Nov 22, 2007 12:31 AM EST up 0 recs

I don't know

they look fake to me.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 22, 2007 7:32 AM EST up 0 recs

"JJ Cooper sees him as a HOF"

What a moron he hasn't even had a MLB PA yet. I hope he is that good but still that is way too extreme

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Nov 21, 2007 6:02 PM EST 0 recs

I question your logic.

His job is to measure prospects and what he expects them to become, which is certainly an imperfect science. He thinks Bruce is such a talented prospect that he will eventually be a hall of famer. It's no different from him saying he thinks a prospect will be a bust in the majors, as far as I'm concerned. It's not as if J.J. Cooper's educated opinions are fact, they are merely his opinions, and henceforth it's ridiculous to call him a moron. I don't think it takes a whole lot of skill as a baseball analyst to say that you think Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera are going to be hall of famers -- making such statements early on is what he gets paid to do, and anyone who calls him a moron for expressing his opinion about what kind of player Bruce will be (a hall of fame player, in this case) is a moron themself.

by Geki on Nov 21, 2007 7:15 PM EST up 0 recs

I enjoy name calling

it makes RR feel like a real family on Thanksgiving.

So keep it up dickwads!

by jacob brumfield on Nov 21, 2007 9:17 PM EST up 0 recs

you can go henceforth themself

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Nov 21, 2007 9:37 PM EST up 0 recs

Dickwads?

You must be the grandfather drooling into the gravy in this simile.

A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 21, 2007 9:37 PM EST up 0 recs

it's really a metaphor, IMO

we are a family, we're not just like one. once again, IMO. who wants to be the cool cousin who never hung out with me because he thought i was annoying?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Nov 21, 2007 9:41 PM EST up 0 recs

I'll pass on being the cousin

but I am claiming the uncle who laughs too hard and makes things awkward with his comments on younger females in the family

by jacob brumfield on Nov 21, 2007 10:18 PM EST up 0 recs

Can I be the grandmother...

who makes everyone miserable and complains how no one comes to visit her anymore and how unloved and abandoned she is?

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Nov 22, 2007 5:12 PM EST up 0 recs

Krivsky's stamp

I wasn't thrilled to see BA's negative take on Krivsky's putting his stamp on the Reds' system, just when things have been looking up. Losing Johnny Almaraz can't be good.

by pw on Nov 21, 2007 9:10 PM EST 0 recs

Speaking of Jay Bruce...

From Jayson Stark:

The Reds are so convinced that minor league player of the year Jay Bruce could be ready for the big leagues by June, they're actively marketing outfielders to clear space. Don't figure on Junior Griffey or Adam Dunn changing zip codes. But the Reds are aggressively dropping Ryan Freel's name. And maybe most surprisingly, they've told other teams Josh Hamilton is also available in the right deal. "It really makes you wonder about his health," said an official of one team that spoke with them, "and whether all that time he missed took more of a toll than we thought."

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 22, 2007 1:23 AM EST 0 recs

i read this last night and thought about posting

about it, but since you did already i'll just take off from here. ive been on the fence about hamilton's value for a while now, but i think ive come to the conclusion that it might be best to trade him now. his value has increased exponentially (we got him for 50K right?) and now i would venture to say we could easily get a solid starter (maybe more) in the right deal. its the safe move i know, but this franchise isnt in a position to gamble a whole lot. he may end up being a hall of famer, or may be end up being a shooting star, but i would rather flip him and get something a little more static.

of course, i would much rather trade freel. i imagine kenny williams would trade half the farm for that hustle.

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 22, 2007 11:16 AM EST up 0 recs

really?

I don't see anyone parting with a solid starter for an injury-prone outfielder, especially with how expensive starters are this offseason.

and I know we have a packed outfield, but am I the only one who does not want to trade Freel? You can plug him in anywhere, great off the bench, and he can rattle a pitcher at the plate and on the basepaths. Not to mention he is a fan fave and an automatic web-gemer(new term)

by jacob brumfield on Nov 22, 2007 12:00 PM EST up 0 recs

Freel

The thing that worries me about Freel is that I wonder how long he can play the way he does. He's had so many concussions. And his body has an awful lot of wear and tear. He seems like the type who might have a short career.

And Keppinger is as versatile as Freel; I could see him taking over Freel's role as utility guy.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 22, 2007 12:33 PM EST up 0 recs

thats why we need Freel

Freel will play the part of the outfielder who (sadly) dies running into the outfield wall.

Hamilton will emerge as his unlikely replacement and dominate, taking us to the WS

I feel a movie in the works, but it needs a good title, all I can think of is 'The Genuine'...any ideas?

by jacob brumfield on Nov 22, 2007 12:57 PM EST up 0 recs

i hear what you are saying about freel

but i think hoppinger more than covers for him, and hoppinger is much cheaper. i would love to keep everyone we have, as effective depth is not something we have had around here in a long time. now, i wouldnt actively shop freel because i dont want to get rid of him, but i would listen to offers and if the right deal came along i would do it. we need pitching and this may be the most efficient way to do it.

its pretty refreshing to have options isnt it?

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Nov 22, 2007 12:38 PM EST up 0 recs

my man crush on freel is not enough...

...to turn down pitching

if he is traded for pitching, its only fair we get a hell-raiser of a pitcher. some sort of head-hunting drunkard, who publicly demeans women and minoritys. not because I agree with that, but because it will make wlw more enjoyable and the discussions here lively. I thinking a Dibble-Rocker hybrid would be lovely.

by jacob brumfield on Nov 22, 2007 12:51 PM EST up 0 recs

Well...

Maybe Brett Myers will be available.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 22, 2007 12:55 PM EST up 0 recs

Something like Hamilton for Garza makes sense

for everyone involved, methinks.

by Geki on Nov 22, 2007 11:57 AM EST up 0 recs

It would probably take more

Than Hamilton to land Garza.... but the question is what else would it take? Edwin and Hamilton for Garza and a lower level prospect? I don't really know.

For what its worth though on Drew Stubbs.... He didn't catch fire the last month of the season, once July began through the end of the season (246 plate appearances, more than half of his season) he hit .303/.399/.517. Also another note on him, he had 125 plate appearances outside of the leadoff spot in the line up, his strikeouts dropped off 6% and he hit .313. Coincidence? Surely it could bt, but I think him batting leadoff simply because he is fast is a bad idea. Guys with strikeout problems shouldn't bat leadoff because they tend to take pitches that maybe they shouldn't becuase thats what leadoff hitters do.

Personally, I think they undersold Travis Wood on the list a little and put a little much with Maloney, although JJ said that the 5-15 guys are almost flippable for eachother and there isn't much difference between them. Will be interesting to see who 11-30 are later on when they come out.

www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Nov 22, 2007 12:14 PM EST up 0 recs

3rd base

Note that Stark suggests Rolen might land in Cincinnati. No word on what happens to EE if Rolen becomes a Red.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 22, 2007 12:36 PM EST up 0 recs

yuck. giving scott rolen a large contract?

yuck.

save elpidio!

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Nov 22, 2007 5:16 PM EST up 0 recs

I'm with you on this.

(Both times you typed it.)

"Screw it. We've got bigger problems than a butter shortage."

by Ash on Nov 23, 2007 5:45 PM EST up 0 recs

yuck. giving scott rolen a large contract?

yuck.

save elpidio!

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Nov 22, 2007 5:16 PM EST up 0 recs

Josh

is spending much of his Thanksgiving day at the Durham Rescue Mission, eating and talking with recovering drug addicts.

by Man Mountain on Nov 22, 2007 12:08 PM EST up 0 recs

How Sweet

if we trade him, I expect nothing less than the Pope in return, well I might settle for a Tibetian Monk

by jacob brumfield on Nov 22, 2007 12:14 PM EST up 0 recs

Tibetian...

ladies....

by Man Mountain on Nov 22, 2007 12:27 PM EST up 0 recs

by which, of course, I mean

he's eating recovering drug addicts.

by Man Mountain on Nov 22, 2007 12:28 PM EST up 0 recs

is that dark or white meat?

by jacob brumfield on Nov 22, 2007 12:44 PM EST up 0 recs

it's muppet

by Man Mountain on Nov 22, 2007 1:35 PM EST up 0 recs

I've got a theory on Hamilton

and I am sure that I will get blasted on this theory. As of now Hamilton is a phenomenal talent and a serious injury risk. JD Drew is IMO a similar talent with similar injury risk. Drew got paid 14 million last year with the Bosox. Everything being equal Hamilton value can be estimated at 14 million worth of production. Hamilton does have a serious drawback in the chance that he may relapse. I do not now of the odds of relapse but lets assume that after two years of sobriety that there is 40% of relapse and after three years its 25%.

Can we derive that Hamilton is worth 60% of 14 million. If so, could we trade for somebody that has the value of 8.4 million. Or next year, If Hamilton stays sober, have the trade value 10.5 million.

I guess my point is is that Hamilton is a phenomenal talent and a precedent has been set with JD Drew. So if we trade him is it fair to expect at least 8.4 million dollars of talent in return. If we hold on to him another year he should become much more valuable. Question is, what is Garza's prospected value. Is he projected to be ace or a number 2? I definitely believe Hamilton is worth at least a number 3 pitcher straight up and with more time under his belt should be worth an ace or a solid number 2.

On a personal note, I would hate to see Hamilton ever relapse, not because I am a fan of his, because I would hate to see it happen to anyone. Especially since it appears that Hamilton is a very good and positive person.

by gocolts on Nov 22, 2007 1:54 PM EST 0 recs