New and notes and stuff
I'm bored on a conference call that I have no reason to be on, so I figured I'd help JD out a bit with a some stuff to talk about today. Word is that he hasn't been sleeping well lately on his bags of money, so that's why he hasn't been around much...
- Firstly, I think it hasn't been mentioned enough around here how useful and insightful JinAZ's series on total player value has been. For the past few weeks he has looked at both hitting and fielding metrics to try to establish how much total value a player contributes over any old replacement level player. Parts of it are a little mathy, but Justin does a great job of explaining his reasoning for every step he takes and he really tries to not talk over everyone's head. If you are interested in learning about the various fielding metrics or understanding the effects of position on a player's value, this is an excellent series to read.
- As the free agent market dealings kick off, the players union is already starting with the collusion talk. I have a feeling it's just a preemptive move to scare the owners and GMs out of holding their ground. There is a lot about the hot stove that is fun, but damn, stuff like this can be annoying.
- This is kinda old, but some of you may not have heard that the Cubs are moving Ryan Dempster back to the rotation. I don't know how I feel about this. I mean, it was always nice to know that if the Cubs took a lead into the ninth, they still were going to hand the ball to Dempster. I now expect them to give a boatload of money to Eric Gagne or Francisco Cordero.
- Ken Griffey Jr. is happy the Reds signed Dusty Baker. He says, "It's going to be good for the city of Cincinnati to see what can happen with a big-name manager, something it hasn't had since Lou Piniella." I guess Davey Johnson and Jack McKeon weren't big enough names. Dusty Baker is a rock star!
- If you are interested in some minor league free agents, Baseball America has an all star team for you.
- The most frequent pitcher being linked to the Reds so far has been Carlos Silva. John Fay doesn't think the Reds can afford him, but I think some of the guys he lists will be traded to free up some cash. I'm not sure what I think of Silva. The guy is a ground ball pitcher who hardly walks anyone. That's a good recipe, though he doesn't strike out anyone either. Rob Neyer thinks that in the right situation he could be an All Star (subscription required), but that right siuation requires a good defense, something the Reds don't currently sport.
- If you haven't been following the Sporting News replay of the 1986 season, well, JD has the Reds sitting in 4th place in the NL West, 3 games out. The pitching is suspect, except for Carl Willis, of course, but Eric Davis is tearing it up. He and Dave Parker have both hit 3 home runs in the first 5 games, tied for 2nd in the league. Too bad these games aren't played live. Could make for a fun off-season game thread.
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An addition
Japanese stuff
The lefty closer has 40 saves in each of the past three seasons and no doubt would have had plenty of offers given the success of Japanese relievers coming to America. "I've wanted to continue my playing career in the place where I grew up," Iwase said. "I made up my mind soon after I first spoke with the front office." Iwase will make close to $4 million per year staying with the Dragons.
Last week Iwase pitched a perfect ninth to close out the Japanese Series for the Dragons. Unbelievably, SP Daisuke Yamai pitched 8 perfect innings and threw only 86 pitches - and was pulled. It's unclear why. Trey Hillman, the new KC manager, coached the losing Nippon Ham Fighters.
Braun wins ROY
2007 NL Rookie of the Year Voting
Player, Club 1st 2nd 3rd Points
Ryan Braun, MIL 17 14 1 128
Troy Tulowitzki, COL 15 17 126
Hunter Pence, HOU 15 15
Chris Young, ARI 10 10
Kyle Kendrick, PHI 1 4 7
Yunel Escobar, ATL 1 1
James Loney, LAD 1 1
Wow
No, Hamilton didn't deserve the award, but comeon - he hit .292; Young's OBP was .295. Sure Young played more, but Hamilton would have had to gotten on base at a .202(!) clip in those extra 287 PA to match his OBP. I guess those 32 HRs, even matched to Young's other pathetic numbers (OPS+ 89), were too much to ignore.
At least the right guy won in the AL.
I'm still not convinced
My hope is that they can move maybe AGon, maybe Freel, maybe Jr., sign a significant free agent, and maybe trade for one of the #1 starters that seem available (Kazmir? Santana? Is Lincecum that good yet?). My fear is that Krivsky will vastly overpay for someone (like Silva, $15M/yr), the Reds will suck again, and Castellini will shrink the payroll.
Griffey
I've very interested in learning about these exciting things will be happening throughout the city, simply due to Dusty Baker's fame.
by cggarb on Nov 12, 2007 3:30 PM EST reply actions
cute children running out into traffic
by Man Mountain on Nov 12, 2007 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
is he filling the Bob Huggins void
by justin0070000 on Nov 12, 2007 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
that's a thin reed on which to lean
by Man Mountain on Nov 14, 2007 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Jacque Jones acquired!
by Thundering Turtle on Nov 12, 2007 3:42 PM EST reply actions
Some cool stuff at Baseball Reference
On the pitching end, how about Scott Patterson, Charlie Manning, Lee Gronkiewicz, or Dan Giese. All guys with high k-rates and low walk rates. Could be cheap help that's worth a flier.
Pascucci
- He'll be 29.
- He put those numbers up in the PCL.
Yeah
It's not a huge deal, and I'm not anti-Cantu, just trying to add some life to the off-season.
Don't forget Red Fest
I am still undecided about going but looks fun. Wish I had a schedule about appearances. Do you have to pay to get autographs? How does that all work?
Old news...
Meanwhile, here in NY...the Yankees are likely to release Carl "Glass-Ass" Pavano. A $40 million mistake. He was an unmitigated disaster for the Yankees, but might be worth a look for a small market team. The knock on him with the Yanks was lack of conditioning/work ethic, and a perception that he couldn't handle the pressure of a big-market team. By all accounts, he had turned it around on the conditioning front, working out more than he ever had in his life and getting in shape before TJ surgery ended his latest comeback attempt.
Also, you might not have Bill Hall to kick around any more. the Yankees are rumored to be interested in him as a replacement for A-Rod.
Sim League
that sounds like a plan
I'm interested
If we can find a place to do it, would anybody be interested in a league where we pick whole Reds teams, limiting ourselves to non-Championship years? So, you could pick the 1999, 1972, or 1961 Reds, but not 1975, 1976, or 1990. Maybe we could figure out who is the best of non-championship teams?
1986, part 2
pop, despawn, pop, despawn
Saw this via Redleg Nation
Lots of theses around the net, but Muhlenkamp suggests a number of moves I haven't seen anyone suggest before. The monster trade is a humdinger (not saying I like it).
Devil's Advocate has already weighed in in the comments at RLN.
Monster deal
The Cain deal is a little over the top if you ask me. Cain is good, but I'm not sure he's worth 4 players, one of whom is a starter. The author says that EdE's value is at it's highest and that's why he should be traded, but he's also cheap for a couple more years, so why not hold on to him and keep that high value on the team. I don't mind trading EdE for a pitcher like Cain, but if it's going to take 2 or 3 other players just to get one guy, then I'd rather hold on to EdE thankyouverymuch.
Agreed
by Brendanukkah on Nov 13, 2007 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
I meant the Cain deal
At first blush I really don't like the Cain deal, however. One of the author's main points is that the Reds have a fair amount of offensive talent coming into bloom. At the top of that list IMO is EdE. I think with the second half EdE had, most GMs in the league probably recognize his value at this point. I've even noticed a good bit of discussion of his defense around the internets this offseason already.
So as you say, I could stomach a one for one swap, possibly with a reach prospect thrown in to sweeten the deal for the Giants. But a young, cheap, productive major league infielder and two top 20 prospects for a promising RHP seems to be overpaying.
He also seems overly optimistic that GMs aren't ging to mind Freel's contract--though, I suppose the O's would be the team silly enough to take it on. I'm not sure what he means by Hopper making Freel expendable--maybe the Voltron Hoppinger, but not NoHo by himself.
But damn, looking at that starting rotation he threw out there was kind of thrilling for a moment.
by Man Mountain on Nov 13, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
"two top 20 prospects"
by Man Mountain on Nov 13, 2007 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Something else he doesn't mention
I like the roster he constructed, but I think it's highly unlikely that most of the moves he suggests are reasonable. Then again, when have most MLB GMs proved to be reasonable?
My take
- Jr. is probably attractive to the M's. Johjima is probably available. The writer completely misstates the remaining financial committment to Jr. (he's owed $12.5M for '08, plus a $4M buyout; the deferred money (I'd have to think) is a sunk cost by the Reds - the new team would only be liable for '08's deferred $ (part of the $12.5M)), which makes the money ((12.5+4)2)-5.2=$3M savings for the Reds. After all of that, the M's should look at it - their only LH power was Ibanez, and their DH was Jose Vidro(!).
- Looking at Spoone, I don't like his k/bb ratio, but he's allowed less than .5 HR/9 so far as a pro. He's certainly worth more than 2$7M of Freel; the Reds would probably have to throw in significant cash.
- Where in the world did he get the idea that Matt Cain would be available??? I haven't seen his name come up anywhere - I've heard Lincecum, though. I would argue (a) that's too much to give up for Cain, and (b) even if it isn't, getting rid of EdE and Stubbs negates the boost Cain would give the team (the goal should not be the playoffs it should be the World Series, and the Reds are probably 2 years away at least). See what it would take to get Lincecum.
- Trading Ross only makes sense if they can get a Johjima. But if they can, take whatever decent prospect they can get.
My only comment refers to this: By the way, has a pitcher ever done well once he was traded away from Atlanta? Just off the top of my head, Doyle Alexander was exactly what the Tigers needed.
Free Agents:
- I'd steer clear of Affeldt; that k/bb ratio isn't good, especially for a reliever.
- I'd want no part of Kris Benson because of the injury risk (Wood at least pitched last year); besides, someone is going to look at his numbers before the injury and see a 3/$24M pitcher.
- If you pay 1/2 of Freel's salary to dump him, then pay Blum $1M, you're only ahead $500K (and a C-level prospect). And you've traded away a really popular player, and lost one of the best basestealers in baseball. It wouldn't make much sense.
There isn't a guy on the bench who can hit his way out of a paper sack, except with the right matchup. Two pitching changes, and you're out of options (and probably have a terrible team in the field, too). He also lists Votto (or Hatteberg) at 1B; he should have worked one of them into a trade, because there is no good reason for both to be with the organization next season.
It's obvious he went to a lot of trouble, and came up with what he thought would be a good lineup. I just think he's mistaken.
Totally agree re: Benson
I also had not heard a word about Matt Cain's availability, which is why I thought it was an interesting take. I suspect he constructed an attractive roster and worked backwards from there.
It was bizarre to see the Reds landing 3 of the more ballyhoed free agent relief pitchers on the market.
by Man Mountain on Nov 13, 2007 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
seriuosly why is everyone so hard on Belise
by justin0070000 on Nov 13, 2007 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
CC Gets The Cy Young
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3108321
wow, me too
by Man Mountain on Nov 13, 2007 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
Just another tragic obstacle...
Jr. hearts Dunn...
Griffey Jr. had glowing words for the team's decision to pick up the option on fellow outfielder Adam Dunn.
"So many people complain about what he does wrong instead of what the man does right," Griffey said. "He goes out there every day and plays hard."
Thanks Jr. - now that the deal is done, oh and say howdy to all your fans in M land.
Wedge and Melvin win Managers of the Year
No
by Man Mountain on Nov 14, 2007 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Stop me before..
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 14, 2007 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
so you were the crepe my sister made it with
by Man Mountain on Nov 14, 2007 6:54 PM EST up reply actions
The best petit fours I've ever had.
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 14, 2007 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
No love for the dreaded Rear Admiral
What's Uncle Carl been up to?
Attorney Jonathan Reiter said his clients are seeking "damages for terrorism, war crimes ... and wrongful death."
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/law/11/14/chiquita.lawsuit/index.html
Yikes.
7.86 billion?
by jacob brumfield on Nov 15, 2007 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Holy Frijoles!
BOING !!!
by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 15, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions

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