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Around SBN: Nevin Shapiro Vows To Bring Down Miami

New and notes and stuff

I'm bored on a conference call that I have no reason to be on, so I figured I'd help JD out a bit with a some stuff to talk about today.  Word is that he hasn't been sleeping well lately on his bags of money, so that's why he hasn't been around much...

  • Firstly, I think it hasn't been mentioned enough around here how useful and insightful JinAZ's series on total player value has been.  For the past few weeks he has looked at both hitting and fielding metrics to try to establish how much total value a player contributes over any old replacement level player.  Parts of it are a little mathy, but Justin does a great job of explaining his reasoning for every step he takes and he really tries to not talk over everyone's head.  If you are interested in learning about the various fielding metrics or understanding the effects of position on a player's value, this is an excellent series to read.
  • As the free agent market dealings kick off, the players union is already starting with the collusion talk.  I have a feeling it's just a preemptive move to scare the owners and GMs out of holding their ground.  There is a lot about the hot stove that is fun, but damn, stuff like this can be annoying.
  • This is kinda old, but some of you may not have heard that the Cubs are moving Ryan Dempster back to the rotation.  I don't know how I feel about this.  I mean, it was always nice to know that if the Cubs took a lead into the ninth, they still were going to hand the ball to Dempster.  I now expect them to give a boatload of money to Eric Gagne or Francisco Cordero.
  • Ken Griffey Jr. is happy the Reds signed Dusty Baker.  He says, "It's going to be good for the city of Cincinnati to see what can happen with a big-name manager, something it hasn't had since Lou Piniella."  I guess Davey Johnson and Jack McKeon weren't big enough names.  Dusty Baker is a rock star!
  • If you are interested in some minor league free agents, Baseball America has an all star team for you.
  • The most frequent pitcher being linked to the Reds so far has been Carlos Silva.  John Fay doesn't think the Reds can afford him, but I think some of the guys he lists will be traded to free up some cash.  I'm not sure what I think of Silva.  The guy is a ground ball pitcher who hardly walks anyone.  That's a good recipe, though he doesn't strike out anyone either.  Rob Neyer thinks that in the right situation he could be an All Star (subscription required), but that right siuation requires a good defense, something the Reds don't currently sport.
  • If you haven't been following the Sporting News replay of the 1986 season, well, JD has the Reds sitting in 4th place in the NL West, 3 games out.  The pitching is suspect, except for Carl Willis, of course, but Eric Davis is tearing it up.  He and Dave Parker have both hit 3 home runs in the first 5 games, tied for 2nd in the league.  Too bad these games aren't played live.  Could make for a fun off-season game thread.
Anything else that we should be talking about that I missed?

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An addition
David Pinto at Baseball Musings is in the process of releasing his Probablistic Model of Range defense rankings.  Like most defensive metrics, these ratings are just a piece of the puzzle and are not definitive (we're still trying to figure out what definitive is).  Anyway, he has Brandon Phillips ranked as the top 2B in the league, by a good amount.  So far, he's done CF and SS as well, with Hamilton rating as a quality, though not great, center fielder and NoHo coming in at about average in CF.  At SS, Gonzalez rated average last season while Keppinger was slightly below average.  This list makes me question a bit whether Kepp would be good enough at SS, but seeing where BP ranked at 2nd, I have to wonder again whether or not he could put up above average numbers at short.
I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 12, 2007 11:04 AM EST reply actions  

Japanese stuff
Hitoki Iwase, a lefty RP who was thought to come play in MLB next year, has decided to stay put. I'm mildly disappointed as I wanted the Reds to make a run at him.

The lefty closer has 40 saves in each of the past three seasons and no doubt would have had plenty of offers given the success of Japanese relievers coming to America. "I've wanted to continue my playing career in the place where I grew up," Iwase said. "I made up my mind soon after I first spoke with the front office." Iwase will make close to $4 million per year staying with the Dragons.

Last week Iwase pitched a perfect ninth to close out the Japanese Series for the Dragons. Unbelievably, SP Daisuke Yamai pitched 8 perfect innings and threw only 86 pitches - and was pulled.  It's unclear why.  Trey Hillman, the new KC manager, coached the losing Nippon Ham Fighters.

by ken on Nov 12, 2007 12:06 PM EST reply actions  

Braun wins ROY
In a very close vote over Tulowitzki.  And for those that feel like engaging in some gnashing of teeth, Hamilton did not receive a single vote, but then Braun and Tulo received all but one of the 1st and 2nd place votes, so there weren't a lot of votes left to go around.

2007 NL Rookie of the Year Voting
Player, Club          1st   2nd   3rd   Points
Ryan Braun, MIL        17    14     1      128
Troy Tulowitzki, COL   15    17            126
Hunter Pence, HOU                  15       15
Chris Young, ARI                   10       10
Kyle Kendrick, PHI            1     4        7
Yunel Escobar, ATL                  1        1
James Loney, LAD                    1        1

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 12, 2007 3:23 PM EST reply actions  

Wow
This ranks up there with Harang getting no Cy Young votes last year.

No, Hamilton didn't deserve the award, but comeon - he hit .292; Young's OBP was .295.  Sure Young played more, but Hamilton would have had to gotten on base at a .202(!) clip in those extra 287 PA to match his OBP.  I guess those 32 HRs, even matched to Young's other pathetic numbers (OPS+ 89), were too much to ignore.

At least the right guy won in the AL.

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Nov 12, 2007 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm still not convinced
Despite what Fay says (or maybe even because he does), I'm expecting the Reds' payroll to be significantly higher - maybe even the $90M range, if they can land the right guys.

My hope is that they can move maybe AGon, maybe Freel, maybe Jr., sign a significant free agent, and maybe trade for one of the #1 starters that seem available (Kazmir?  Santana? Is Lincecum that good yet?).  My fear is that Krivsky will vastly overpay for someone (like Silva, $15M/yr), the Reds will suck again, and Castellini will shrink the payroll.

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Nov 12, 2007 3:27 PM EST reply actions  

Griffey
"It's going to be good for the city of Cincinnati to see what can happen with a big-name manager.

I've very interested in learning about these exciting things will be happening throughout the city, simply due to Dusty Baker's fame.  

by cggarb on Nov 12, 2007 3:30 PM EST reply actions  

cute children running out into traffic
it's my mostest Christmas wish.
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 12, 2007 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

is he filling the Bob Huggins void
because let me tell you since Huggins was fired in 2005, that city has gone to hell in a hand basket.
The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Nov 12, 2007 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Football!
My saving grace: UC Football

by bobestes on Nov 14, 2007 12:00 AM EST up reply actions  

that's a thin reed on which to lean
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 14, 2007 11:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Eh
Better than the Bengals.

by Brendanukkah on Nov 14, 2007 12:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Jacque Jones acquired!
By the Tigers, that is, with cash for Omar Infante.
We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Nov 12, 2007 3:42 PM EST reply actions  

Some cool stuff at Baseball Reference
I can't get over how much cool stuff is at B-R.com lately.  Today they released functionality that allows you to sort minor league free agents based stats you choose.  Has anybody ever heard of Val  Pascucci?  How does a guy with those kinds of minor league numbers only get 32 games in the show?  Doesn't it seem like a guy like Pascucci would be worth giving a shot in Spring Training to be the right-handed bat at first base?  

On the pitching end, how about Scott Patterson, Charlie Manning, Lee Gronkiewicz, or Dan Giese.  All guys with high k-rates and low walk rates.  Could be cheap help that's worth a flier.  

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 12, 2007 3:55 PM EST reply actions  

Pascucci
The only two things I see are:
  1.  He'll be 29.
  2.  He put those numbers up in the PCL.
I'm sure there's a good reason no pro team wants him (the Expos sold him to Japan), but like you I really don't see it on the surface.
just....wow.

by sidnancy on Nov 12, 2007 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah
I noticed that those were PCL numbers, and Albuquerque is especially strong for hitters, if I recall correctly.  I don't expect that he'd put up anything close to that in the Majors, but then I'm looking at a cheap right-handed bat off the bench who could provide some pop and perhaps some protection for Votto if he struggles against lefties.  I know Krivsky and I are playing a different game with different pieces, but it seems like Pascucci is the definition of cheap, available talent.  Maybe Cantu will play better, but maybe Cantu will cost $1-1.5 million too.  Pinching pennies in places like this can allow the Reds to spend a little more in other places.  

It's not a huge deal, and I'm not anti-Cantu, just trying to add some life to the off-season.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 12, 2007 8:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't forget Red Fest
Dec. 7-8.

I am still undecided about going but looks fun.  Wish I had a schedule about appearances.  Do you have to pay to get autographs? How does that all work?

by xjjeep90 on Nov 12, 2007 8:25 PM EST reply actions  

Old news...
But I haven't seen it posted here.  Tom Shearn was DFA'd, cleared waivers, and was assigned to Louisville.  

Meanwhile, here in NY...the Yankees are likely to release Carl "Glass-Ass" Pavano.  A $40 million mistake.  He was an unmitigated disaster for the Yankees, but might be worth a look for a small market team.  The knock on him with the Yanks was lack of conditioning/work ethic, and a perception that he couldn't handle the pressure of a big-market team.  By all accounts, he had turned it around on the conditioning front, working out more than he ever had in his life and getting in shape before TJ surgery ended his latest comeback attempt.  

Also, you might not have Bill Hall to kick around  any more.  the Yankees are rumored to be interested in him as a replacement for A-Rod.  

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Nov 12, 2007 9:29 PM EST reply actions  

Sim League
Is it possible to run a Sim League this winter on WhatIf Sports?  I'm too lazy to go check it out myself.

by Brian B on Nov 12, 2007 9:52 PM EST reply actions  

that sounds like a plan
When we did it last time it was part of some free trial period. We'd have to each pay now ($30? I disremember). I'm fine with that though. It was an absolute blast. I couldn't go to the site for days after my boys' heartbreaking playoff loss.

by Red Menace on Nov 12, 2007 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm interested
but if we're going to do a pay league, I'd rather not do a WhatIf league.  There were way too many games where a team scored over 30 runs.  How is that realistic?

If we can find a place to do it, would anybody be interested in a league where we pick whole Reds teams, limiting ourselves to non-Championship years?  So, you could pick the 1999, 1972, or 1961 Reds, but not 1975, 1976, or 1990.  Maybe we could figure out who is the best of non-championship teams?

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 13, 2007 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

1986, part 2
Can I just say how awesome it is that Curt Schilling is managing the Sox in this thing?  Say what you want about his opinions, etc, but you gotta love that Curt acts like just about any normal guy.  Do any other major leaguers have a blog like his?

by ben nevis on Nov 13, 2007 11:32 AM EST reply actions  

pop, despawn, pop, despawn
My first foray into Lower Guk was a lot of fun.
Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Nov 13, 2007 3:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Saw this via Redleg Nation
http://getsportsinfo.com/index.asp?page=baseball/featurearticles/reds/111207

Lots of theses around the net, but Muhlenkamp suggests a number of moves I haven't seen anyone suggest before. The monster trade is a humdinger (not saying I like it).

Devil's Advocate has already weighed in in the comments at RLN.

A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 13, 2007 1:00 PM EST reply actions  

Monster deal
you mean the Griffey deal or the one for Cain.  The Griffey deal has been mentioned around these parts before, and I even suggested trying to get a reliever out of it as well.  

The Cain deal is a little over the top if you ask me.  Cain is good, but I'm not sure he's worth 4 players, one of whom is a starter.  The author says that EdE's value is at it's highest and that's why he should be traded, but he's also cheap for a couple more years, so why not hold on to him and keep that high value on the team.  I don't mind trading EdE for a pitcher like Cain, but if it's going to take 2 or 3 other players just to get one guy, then I'd rather hold on to EdE thankyouverymuch.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 13, 2007 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Agreed
I don't mind EdE for Cain, or Votto for Cain straight up.  I'd even be able to tolerate another player from that list going.  But to give up three or four players, San Fran would have to be giving us something else back.  I don't know the minors very well; do the Jints have anyone that would be a reasonable throw-in?  Not necessarily a stud, but a useful project?

by Brendanukkah on Nov 13, 2007 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I meant the Cain deal
I didn't think the Griffey deal would surprise many denizens of this site. And I like it. I'm not sure I have an accurate reading of what an everyday Reds fan would think.

At first blush I really don't like the Cain deal, however. One of the author's main points is that the Reds have a fair amount of offensive talent coming into bloom. At the top of that list IMO is EdE. I think with the second half EdE had, most GMs in the league probably recognize his value at this point. I've even noticed a good bit of discussion of his defense around the internets this offseason already.

So as you say, I could stomach a one for one swap, possibly with a reach prospect thrown in to sweeten the deal for the Giants. But a young, cheap, productive major league infielder and two top 20 prospects for a promising RHP seems to be overpaying.

He also seems overly optimistic that GMs aren't ging to mind Freel's contract--though, I suppose the O's would be the team silly enough to take it on. I'm not sure what he means by Hopper making Freel expendable--maybe the Voltron Hoppinger, but not NoHo by himself.

But damn, looking at that starting rotation he threw out there was kind of thrilling for a moment.

A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 13, 2007 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

"two top 20 prospects"
I meant in the Reds' system.
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 13, 2007 1:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Something else he doesn't mention
are the injuries to both Griffey and Freel.  I think Griffey's nut bungee injury is going to make him very difficult to trade.  And Freel didn't exactly tear it up after his concussion (.235/.299/.316) and before he ended his season with torn cartilage in his knee.  Not only is he more expensive (with a 2-year deal), but the injuries have to cast some doubt on what sort of production he might provide next year.

I like the roster he constructed, but I think it's highly unlikely that most of the moves he suggests are reasonable.  Then again, when have most MLB GMs proved to be reasonable?

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 13, 2007 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

My take
Trades:
  1.  Jr. is probably attractive to the M's.  Johjima is probably available.  The writer completely misstates the remaining financial committment to Jr. (he's owed $12.5M for '08, plus a $4M buyout; the deferred money (I'd have to think) is a sunk cost by the Reds - the new team would only be liable for '08's deferred $ (part of the $12.5M)), which makes the money ((12.5+4)2)-5.2=$3M savings for the Reds.  After all of that, the M's should look at it - their only LH power was Ibanez, and their DH was Jose Vidro(!).
  2.  Looking at Spoone, I don't like his k/bb ratio, but he's allowed less than .5 HR/9 so far as a pro.  He's certainly worth more than 2$7M of Freel; the Reds would probably have to throw in significant cash.
  3.  Where in the world did he get the idea that Matt Cain would be available???  I haven't seen his name come up anywhere - I've heard Lincecum, though.  I would argue (a) that's too much to give up for Cain, and (b) even if it isn't, getting rid of EdE and Stubbs negates the boost Cain would give the team (the goal should not be the playoffs it should be the World Series, and the Reds are probably 2 years away at least).  See what it would take to get Lincecum.
  4.  Trading Ross only makes sense if they can get a Johjima.  But if they can, take whatever decent prospect they can get.
Releases:

My only comment refers to this:  By the way, has a pitcher ever done well once he was traded away from Atlanta?  Just off the top of my head, Doyle Alexander was exactly what the Tigers needed.

Free Agents:

  1.  I'd steer clear of Affeldt; that k/bb ratio isn't good, especially for a reliever.
  2.  I'd want no part of Kris Benson because of the injury risk (Wood at least pitched last year); besides, someone is going to look at his numbers before the injury and see a 3/$24M pitcher.
  3.  If you pay 1/2 of Freel's salary to dump him, then pay Blum $1M, you're only ahead $500K (and a C-level prospect).  And you've traded away a really popular player, and lost one of the best basestealers in baseball.  It wouldn't make much sense.
Roster:

There isn't a guy on the bench who can hit his way out of a paper sack, except with the right matchup.  Two pitching changes, and you're out of options (and probably have a terrible team in the field, too).  He also lists Votto (or Hatteberg) at 1B; he should have worked one of them into a trade, because there is no good reason for both to be with the organization next season.

It's obvious he went to a lot of trouble, and came up with what he thought would be a good lineup.  I just think he's mistaken.

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Nov 13, 2007 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I have no idea
...what happened to the italics formatting up in the "Trades" section.
just....wow.

by sidnancy on Nov 13, 2007 4:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Totally agree re: Benson
Why not just keep Belisle as 5th starter/bullpen guy until Cueto's ready?

I also had not heard a word about Matt Cain's availability, which is why I thought it was an interesting take. I suspect he constructed an attractive roster and worked backwards from there.

It was bizarre to see the Reds landing 3 of the more ballyhoed free agent relief pitchers on the market.

A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 13, 2007 7:23 PM EST up reply actions  

seriuosly why is everyone so hard on Belise
I still say give him a shot in 2008.  Will he be an ace?  No.  But he can be quality.  His peripherals were close to Harangs in 2004.  Give him a couple of months in 2008 and see what happens before throwing him away.
The Dusty path to the World Series!

by justin0070000 on Nov 13, 2007 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

John Allen go bye-bye
According to the Fay.
I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 13, 2007 3:10 PM EST reply actions  

CC Gets The Cy Young
And by a "wide" margin. I thought for sure Beckett would get it.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3108321

I hope the Rockies win it all, and I don't even like God.

by jch24 on Nov 13, 2007 3:31 PM EST reply actions  

wow, me too
I expect a 3,500 word tantrum from Simmons over this. The MLB is clearly out to get the Red Sox.
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 13, 2007 3:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Just another tragic obstacle...
the redsox were able to manfully perservere on their way to their first World Series title in over 1000 days.
Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Nov 13, 2007 4:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Jr. hearts Dunn...
Well now isn't that special...

Griffey Jr. had glowing words for the team's decision to pick up the option on fellow outfielder Adam Dunn.

"So many people complain about what he does wrong instead of what the man does right," Griffey said. "He goes out there every day and plays hard."

Thanks Jr. - now that the deal is done, oh and say howdy to all your fans in M land.

"You don't invent winning" Sparky Anderson

by Madville on Nov 13, 2007 9:22 PM EST reply actions  

Wedge and Melvin win Managers of the Year
And if those names don't make you laugh, then you've never had your underwear unceremoniously pulled up your ass.
I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 14, 2007 3:49 PM EST reply actions  

No
but I have had my underwear ceremoniously pulled up by ass. There were invitations and a reception with light refreshment. My sister made crepes.
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 14, 2007 3:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Stop me before..
..I share my story involving underwear, my ass, and Man Mountain's sister.
"The taco has to be redeemed on Oct. 30 or Nov. 6 - that's a Tuesday."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 14, 2007 4:44 PM EST up reply actions  

so you were the crepe my sister made it with
A little inaccuracy sometimes saves a ton of explanation.

by Man Mountain on Nov 14, 2007 6:54 PM EST up reply actions  

The best petit fours I've ever had.
"The taco has to be redeemed on Oct. 30 or Nov. 6 - that's a Tuesday."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 14, 2007 11:36 PM EST up reply actions  

No love for the dreaded Rear Admiral
I think he's managing in Tampa Bay now.
Add getting a shot at love with Tila Tequila to the list of things at which I would be horrible.

by Red Menace on Nov 14, 2007 6:37 PM EST up reply actions  

What's Uncle Carl been up to?
Chiquita Brands International faces a $7.86 billion lawsuit filed Wednesday on behalf of nearly 400 Colombian families who say the company should be held responsible for the "torture and murder" of their loved ones.

Attorney Jonathan Reiter said his clients are seeking "damages for terrorism, war crimes ... and wrongful death."

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/law/11/14/chiquita.lawsuit/index.html

Yikes.

Add getting a shot at love with Tila Tequila to the list of things at which I would be horrible.

by Red Menace on Nov 15, 2007 1:52 AM EST reply actions  

7.86 billion?
pennies for the peasants, Now wheres my fruit?!

by jacob brumfield on Nov 15, 2007 11:24 AM EST up reply actions  

carl
I thought he sold out a few years back

by bobestes on Nov 15, 2007 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

He did
No blood for Griffey.
Add getting a shot at love with Tila Tequila to the list of things at which I would be horrible.

by Red Menace on Nov 15, 2007 9:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Holy Frijoles!
Yorvit Torrealba just hit the jackpot.  Three years, $14.4 million from the Mets.  His highest OPS+ in a season with more than 160 plate appearances is 83.  His career OBP is .313.  He slugged .376 in Colorado last year for cripesake!  And for what it's worth, JinAZ rated him as the 18th best defensive catcher last year, essentially middle of the pack.  And he's going to average nearly $5 million a year for the next 3 years.  Tools of ignorance, my ass!
I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Nov 15, 2007 10:33 PM EST reply actions  

BOING !!!
"The taco has to be redeemed on Oct. 30 or Nov. 6 - that's a Tuesday."

by Fat Vegas Alan on Nov 15, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions  

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