2008 NL Central Starting Pitching
by buckeye22fox on Oct 9, 2007 4:18 AM EDT
47 comments
Astros
Roy Oswalt-$13 million
Woody Williams-$6.25 million
Wandy Rodriguez(--)
Chris Sampson(--)
Matt Albers(--)
Jason Jennings()
Brandon Backe(#)
Brian Moehler()
Chan Ho Park()
Brewers
Ben Sheets-$11 million
Jeff Suppan-$8 million
Claudio Vargas(#)
Chris Capuano(#)
David Bush(#)
Yovani Gallardo(--)
Cardinals
Chris Carpenter-$10.5 million
Mark Mulder-$6.5 million
Braden Looper-$5.5 million
Joel Piniero-$4 million mutual option
Kip Wells()
Adam Wainwright(--)
Anthony Reyes(--)
Brad Thompson(--)
Mike Maroth(#)
Todd Wellemeyer(#)
Cubs
Ted Lilly-$7 million
Carlos Zambrano-$15 million
Jason Marquis-$6.375 million
Steve Trachsel-$4.75 million club option
Jeff Samardzija-$2 million
Rich Hill(--)
Sean Marshall(--)
Mark Prior(#)
Pirates
Matt Morris-$9.5 million
Tony Armas-$5 million mutual option
Tom Gorzelanny(--)
Ian Snell(--)
Zach Duke(--)
Paul Maholm(--)
John Van Benschoten(--)
Reds
Aaron Harang-$6.75 million
Bronson Arroyo-$3.95 million + $2.5 million bonus
Matt Belisle(#)
Bobby Livingston(--)
Homer Bailey(--)
Eric Milton()
Phil Dumatrait(--)
Tom Shearn(--)
() Free Agent
(#) Arbitration Eligible
(--) Pre-Arbitration
Highlighted players because I don't know how the hell to de-highlight them
There is tendering and arbitration a plenty to happen this off-season. However, the Cubs have already invested the most in Starting Pitching at ~$35 million for the upcoming year. They will probably have the best staff once again in 2008. Mark Prior will probably be offered arbitration to round out the staff with the Lilly, Zambrano, Hill, Marquis core of 2007. Marshall and Prior will probably duke it out for the 5 spot. Marshall posted a 3.91 ERA and a WHIP slightly under 1.40 and will be ready if/when Prior goes down.
St. Louis is interesting because of the question marks that are Carpenter and Mulder. Can they rebound to be a shell of what they once were, or will they be sub .500 has-been pitchers. Looper, Reyes, Wainwright and Thompson may be middle to bottom of the rotation guys for the next couple of years.
If you consider the faint possibility that the Pirates pick up Armas' option, that means the Reds have the least amount of money invested in Starting Pitching. However, with a small budget and pre-arbitration youngsters the Pirates will probably end up with the smallest payroll and have the least amount of money invested in the starting staff. The Pirates will probably have Gorzelanny, Duke, Morris, Snell, and Maholm as their staff. These guys will get no support but should be the second best staff in the NL Central.
The Brewers will have quite a questionable staff once again but Sheets and Suppan should be their #1-2 punch. Just like Carpenter and Mulder, how will Sheets rebound? The bottom of the rotation guys will strangle the team once again with Dave Bush, Chris Capuano, and Claudio Vargas.
Houston has Oswalt and that's about it. Woody Williams is under contract and will be on the staff. Rodriguez, Sampson and Albers will be tendered. The Astros have to bring in a pitcher or two from Free Agency, but it's going to be a thin market. They just might ride out that trio but they are not really that good so I doubt it.
Our beloved Reds have Harang and Arroyo, but the rest are question marks. Just an assumption that Bailey will be in the rotation. With the Free Agency market I would guess that Belisle will be offered arbitration. Anybody else as a 36 game starter scares the hell out of me. Wayne Krivsky has to get an Arroyo caliber pitcher to be slightly competitive on the starting pitching front.
I got all the above info from http://www.mlb4u.com/ and http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/ so I hope it's all correct.
2008 Pre-Offseason Starting Pitching Rankings
- Cubs
- Pirates
- Cardinals
- Reds
- Brewers
- Astros
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I completely disagree with those rankings.
Secondly, the Cards have nothing in their rotation next year. It's pretty unlikely that Carpenter makes it back by the beginning of the year and Mulder was a pitcher on the decline before his surgery -- now he's looking like a pitcher without a job in two years. After those two massive question marks, they've got Adam Wainwright and a whole bunch of awful. Oh, and they've got no Jocketty and likely no Dave Duncan this year. Their staff is looking absolutely terrible.
The Astros are in a similar situation to the Cardinals, except they have Roy Oswalt and a whole bunch of awful. Have fun with that, Astros fans.
The Cubs staff does look fairly decent next year, at least the top three. Marquis is trash, but Marshall can push Marquis into the five spot.
The Pirates staff is young and fairly talented, led by Gorzelanny and Snell. Maholm was pretty bad this year and Duke is still mainly living off the reputation he earned his rookie year, but they've got some upside. Morris is dependably mediocre and overpaid, but at least you know what you're getting.
That brings me to the Reds. If they throw out guys like Shearn and Dumatrait again, then next season is a lost cause already. But if they throw out the talent for the last three spots (some combination of Homer, Cueto, Maloney, and Belisle -- preferably the first three), then I think they'll have one of the better rotations in the league.
My overall rankings:
- Cubs
- Brewers
- Reds
- Pirates
- Astros
- Cardinals
by Geki on Oct 9, 2007 6:22 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree with the rankings
by JJ on Oct 9, 2007 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You would agree with alphabetical order
by Slyde on Oct 9, 2007 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
just like when I was in school
Yeah, I was bad at those too
by JJ on Oct 10, 2007 6:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yup, looks alphabetical to me:
1. Cubs
2. Pirates
3. Cardinals
4. Reds
5. Brewers
6. Astros
by Geki on Oct 9, 2007 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I must suck at the alphabet...
by chandrathan on Oct 9, 2007 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it is reverse non alphabetical
by Caleb on Oct 9, 2007 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gallardo
Completely agree that StL is in trouble. Is Dave Duncan likely to go even if TLR stays? Probably won't matter either way, but I could see Anthony Reyes approach earlier expectations if they stop messing with him. StL has a poor track record of developing young SPs, Wainwright being the exception.
by ken on Oct 9, 2007 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really like Milwaukee's rotation.
by Thundering Turtle on Oct 9, 2007 9:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The '08 Pirates
It is a long shot but if the new mangement picks up a big time free agent like Tori Hunter who will automaticly improve the outfield with Defense and help a pathetic offense whos cleanup hitter was Adam LaRoache must of the year. The Pirates might be team to reckon with in the NL.
by Zach K on Oct 9, 2007 9:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Adam LaRoache
by Paul Householder on Oct 9, 2007 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Morris is a "very solid pitcher"?
by justin0070000 on Oct 9, 2007 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Zach...
I agree with you: He is Sweaterpants.
by Paul Householder on Oct 9, 2007 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you know what's better than harang?
cheers!
by Daedalus on Oct 9, 2007 1:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I dunno...
by Brendanukkah on Oct 9, 2007 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you MUST
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 9, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No argument here
by ken on Oct 9, 2007 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
LOL
(actually, what kind of name IS Harang? i could look it up, but Hungarians, as all Euros, have good beer... :)
by Daedalus on Oct 9, 2007 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think its dutch
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 9, 2007 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no it's not
by Daedalus on Oct 10, 2007 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
answer
by justin0070000 on Oct 10, 2007 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That explains the wooden shoes he wears
by Slyde on Oct 10, 2007 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Double-O Sevened
by Man Mountain on Oct 10, 2007 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wow
"what kind of a name is todd gak?"
"i think its dutch."
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2007 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I knew that was some reference....
by Red Menace on Oct 11, 2007 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harang is the best pitcher in the division
by justin0070000 on Oct 9, 2007 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I love Aaron Harang and all...
by Geki on Oct 9, 2007 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
oswalt is a product of his team
by Daedalus on Oct 9, 2007 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Disagree
by Man Mountain on Oct 9, 2007 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
...but he's going downhill we can all agree
by Red Menace on Oct 9, 2007 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure
by Man Mountain on Oct 9, 2007 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe 3 years ago
by justin0070000 on Oct 9, 2007 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll take Jeff Francis over both right now
by Zach K on Oct 9, 2007 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He is Very Great
by Zach K on Oct 9, 2007 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
according to zach:
johan santana is "very great"
mortal combat for the sega genesis is "very awesomely great and cool"
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2007 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is this "very great"?
by Fat Vegas Alan on Oct 10, 2007 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no redheads
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2007 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this is "very very hot"
fiscal solvency is one of my naughty pleasures.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 10, 2007 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is very very good
by Zach K on Oct 10, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of going downhill....
by Madville on Oct 13, 2007 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think your projected Cubs rotation...
Zambrano
lilly
Hill
after these three, the rotation becomes difficult to project, because Marquis may be traded (although I wouldn't bet on that), Marshall may be traded (he is one of our better pieces of trade bait, and he's expendable due to the existence of two other similar curveballing lefties already in the Cubs rotation), and trachsel's option hopefully won't be exercised, as he is bad at sports.
And then of course, there is general uncertainty over who will perform best in spring training, and win spots 4 and 5. I can say with some certainty that Samardzija has almost no chance of breaking camp with the team, and probably won't be seen in the majors before next september. It's also unknown whether he'll become anything special at all; his case is extremely uncommon, and therefore very difficult to project.
for the remaining 2 spots in the rotation, here's how I'd rank the likely order:
-Marquis
-Sean Gallagher--(quite young, but one of the more underrated pitching prospects in the game).
-Sean Marshall--(He is probably the odd man out; Piniella wants one of our three curveballing lefties out of the rotation).
-free agent or trade aquisition
-Kevin Hart--(the proverbial 'dark horse').
by Thelonious on Oct 14, 2007 5:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess I forgot prior
by Thelonious on Oct 14, 2007 5:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
4 man rotation?
The fifth spot is really muddy. The canidites are (in no particular order), Maloney, Cueto, Rameriz, Dumatrait (not real likely, but I guess should be listed as a candidate), Gosling (a real long shot) Livingston (if healthy, shoulder surgery is tough to come back from), and Shearn (i only really want him as a long reliever),
Let's say Belise improves to a mid 4's ERA, solid starting pitcher, and Bailey has moments of disastor and greatness, like most young talented pitchers, in 2008. That means the Red's have an Ace in Harang, a solid dependle (mark him down for 200 innings, and an ERA around 4) pitcher in Aroyo, an ok pitcher in Belise (not as guarentted as Arroyo), and a propably inconsitant Bailey. The Red's could use Shearn as a swing man. Shearn seems most suitable, because he is a vetern rookie, and I think he could handle the uncertainity of bouncing from the bullpen to the rotation. He would be used during long periods without off days, or if the rotation appears to need a bit of a lift. Bailey would be limited to 90 pitches. Belise and Arroyo would be limited to 100, and I think Harang should be limited to 100, but if he has exception stuff on a given night, he should have the most fluid pitch count.
The Red's could keep an 8 man bullpen. Shearn, as I said above would be the long man, Weathers and Burton the answers at the end of the end of the game, Stanton (since realistically he will atelast start the season in Cincinnati, all though he could be the 2008 Rheal Cormeir), be used in mop up situations only, Salmon could be a solid reliever, Coutlangus (if his ERA isn't over taken by his WHIP) could help out, Bray has the makings of a good reliever, and I liek McBeth alot. Plus the Red's have some other fine relievers in the minor's who have yet to see the big leagues.
I know the bullpen is made up of the same cast of characters as last year, but I think guy's like Bray, McBeth, and Salmon could improve with another year of development. They all have the talent to be quailty relievers.
If say Cueto, or Maloney bust down the door to Cincinnati, I don't want to keep them out of the rotation.
I have one question, and I don't mean to sound too "old school". But 40 years ago, pitchers pitched in 4 man rotations, and were expected to finish what they started. Did the injuries still occur, but their were less teams, and less media and therefore those pitchers faded into the night without fanfare, and teams trying to find retreds? Did global warming make their arm's more fragial. Is it because the mound was lowerd? Is it because kid's played catch more? Is it because today's pitchers are bigger and stronger?
I read that Dick Pole through 200+ pitches in 11 innings, in the minors. If a manager allowed a pitcher, especially a minor leaguer to do that, he would recieve so much abuse. Maddux threw a complete game in the 80's with 170 pitches. I am sure Clemans broke 150 a few times too. Why is it that today's pitchers can't do that?
by justin0070000 on Oct 14, 2007 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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