Geki's End of the Season Rantings and Ravings

by Geki on Oct 5, 2007 2:21 PM EDT

Now that I've had some time to reflect on the season (read: I'm bored as hell at the moment), I'm gonna toss out some random, possibly inane, possibly enlightening thoughts on the Reds year. It shall be glorious and you shall all be better after reading it.

First off, I'd like to eat a little bit of crow. Norris Hopper, I was wrong about you. I still don't want you starting, but you've shown that you can get your job done pretty damn well at this point, and I'd be pleased with you as a 4th OF next season. I don't know if I like you yet, but I may be getting there.

Now that I ate a little crow, I'd like to take a little credit for this. Burton is a perfect example of the kind of pickups Wayne should be making with great regularity to improve the bullpen, and hopefully Burton's success will allow him to realize that. Not every young guy with great stuff works out, but I'd sure as hell rather be giving them a shot than old guys with no stuff. Which is why I think Josh Roenicke should be in our bullpen to start off next year, and why I think Pedro Viola and Carlos Guevara deserve very long looks.

Speaking of Roenicke, Viola, and Guevara, I just can't help but be a little excited by the Reds farm system these days. It's gonna have four top-25 prospects when BA's list comes out, and while it's not very deep yet, it's definitely improving. Toss in a young nucleus on the major league squad, and this team should be going places in the next couple of years. Should be.

I'm not worried about Homer Bailey. He wasn't impressive in most of his outings coming up, but he showed flashes of some dominance and it wasn't difficult to predict some struggles with command given how raw he was. Expectations on him were too high to begin with, but he'll live up to them eventually -- just probably not until 2009. I think something like 180 innings of 4.75 ERA, 1.40 WHIP baseball is probably a reasonable expectation, with a few outings in there that let you know he's gonna be a good one.

I hate to say it, but I'm still not sold on Josh Hamilton. He's got crazy talent, but until he shows he can use it for an extended period of time, I'm going to remain a little shaky on him. If he's healthy then he'll be great, but I'm not sure he'll ever be particularly healthy. Something like 110 games of .270/.345/.500 hitting is what I'm expecting out of him next year.

I'm glad to see that the tides are finally turning on Adam Dunn. If Marty is really in Dunn's corner now, then I think we can expect most of the rest of the media to soon follow. And when the media starts focusing on what he does well instead of what he does not, the fans who haven't already will come around as well. I might be unusually optimistic here, but I think we're gonna lock Dunn up long-term.

Jay Bruce deserves to be this team's starting CF next season (with Hamilton in RF and Dunn in LF). For that to happen, Griffey needs to be traded. I wish I could say it's been a nice run with Junior, but it really hasn't. Let's ship him out for a live arm or toolsy bat and move on. As for Bruce, he's going to be absolutely exceptional. I have not seen a reputable source that doesn't think he'll become anything other than a superstar, and the stats as well as his attitude back that up. For those of you who aren't excited about him, get excited. For those of you who are excited about him, get more excited. The last hitting prospect with as much talent as Bruce (other than Justin Upton) is our very own Josh Hamilton. I think we're looking at a .930 OPS out of a guy who can play above average defense not just in RF, but in CF as well.

I don't know what the Reds saw in Votto to make them think he was a AAAA player, but I'm just not seeing it. He's not gonna be an all-star, but he's gonna be a very productive staple for us at 1B. I expect him to regularly OPS above .850 for us. As for Cantu, I don't think we should platoon Votto until he shows he can't touch lefties, but if we need to, Cantu's got the makings of a nice bench bat. He can play three infield positions and probably a fourth in a pinch, he's got some pop, and he does seem to be an RBI machine. I'm not sure he'd be productive enough to be an every day 1B, but I'm glad we've got him off the bench.

I can't even decide if Brandon Phillips is overrated or underrated. In terms of fantasy stats, he's a superstar, and he also has great defense. But, at the same time, he really can't take a walk, though I think he's more valuable than statheads give him credit for despite that. It's tough to get a read on him, but I'm glad we've got him either way.

Edwin Encarnacion gave us an OPS up north of .850 and hit over .300 once he came up from the minors, with much improved defense. His power looked like it was coming on pretty big late in the year. Why would we trade this guy? Even if he doesn't smile enough, I think he'll probably be a solid .300/.360/.500 type hitter for us -- and his defense will be above average to very good as well. Also, interestingly enough, I think his little trip to AAA kept him from being super-two eligible this year.

Aaron Harang is just a consistent horse of a man. He took a step up with his hit rate this year, and if he can do that with his homerun rate next year, he'll really be earning that ace moniker. Either way, I'm sure as hell glad we have a guy who can go toe-to-toe with Carlos Zambrano, Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, or any other pitcher in the league and still give us a good chance to come out on top.

Bronson Arroyo is a good middle of the rotation starter and will continue to be a good middle of the rotation starter. An ERA just under 4 is a reasonable expectation of him next season, I would think.

I'm not sure if I want to throw out Gonzalez for Keppinger or not, but I'm leaning towards no. Why? Because that means Juan Castro would be our top back-up infielder again. Shucks.

Even though the starting pitcher market is awful this year, I think the Reds should probably try to sign one of those guys who can give an ERA between 4.50 and 5.00. Right now, I'm not sure we have five guys in the organization who can do that if we aren't giving the youngsters a chance.

If I never see Jason Ellison again it'll be too soon. Same with Buck Coats, though I'm sure I actually will see him again. Ellison is arbitration eligible, and I can't imagine he'll actually be tendered an offer, so that's a good thing at least.

Saarloos is gone. I would only be halfway surprised if Belisle was as well.

I'd like to see Hatteberg back next year, even in a bench role. With Votto able to play the OF and Cantu able to play other IF positions, I don't think we'd have too much of a logjam at a single position.

I don't really like our catching situation, but it's not going to improve. Ross should be marginally better at the plate next year, and Javy should hopefully be marginally better behind it.

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Comments

Great Post...

I agree almost 100% with your breakdown...

The Reds and the Radio...They're on it.

by chandrathan on Oct 5, 2007 2:26 PM EDT 0 recs

Wha?

I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2007 2:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

take your phone of vibrate

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Oct 5, 2007 2:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

but I like vibrate

It's fun!

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2007 2:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

That was me

Sorry about that. My Bad.

"He's no good to me dead."

by BobbaFan on Oct 5, 2007 3:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Good post, Geki

Nary an F-bomb or an insult. :)

I like your point on Gonzalez/Keppinger. I'm for keeping both of them if only because then the Reds might actually have a decent bench. That's definitely not a bad thing.

The only point I disagree on is signing a pitcher. I agree that the rotation might be short, but I'd rather suck it up with some rookies, pocket some money, and use that to spend on what right now looks like a solid free agent crop of starters after 2008. If the market does indeed become quasi-saturated with quality starters, that should help drive the price down somewhat.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2007 2:35 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm not really advocating a big signing

More or less a rebound-type signing of a guy like Matt Clement or maybe even Bartolo Colon on a one year deal. My first preference, as I've stated in the past, is to go with a rotation featuring Bailey, Cueto, and Maloney right off the bat, then with Belisle as the guy who can fill in in case of injury. But if that can't happen, I'd prefer not to see another situation like we had at the end of this year.

by Geki on Oct 5, 2007 2:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maloney

Has anyone figured out how he started striking out people with an 88 mph fastball yet?

Of all Krivsky's moves, this one might turn out to be his cagiest.

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Oct 5, 2007 3:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

The more I think about it,

I think it'll be Girardi.

I think he and Castellini agreed upon the position a long time ago, regardless of how Mackanin did in his interim stint.

by bobestes on Oct 5, 2007 2:40 PM EDT 0 recs

But...

What if Cleveland sweeps the Yanks, and Torre gets fired?

The Reds and the Radio...They're on it.

by chandrathan on Oct 5, 2007 2:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Look at it this way

I don't think the Yankees is that great of a job. The cupboard is pretty bare, there isn't any starting pitching to purchase (Kyle Lohse?), and Cashman seems to be winning in his quest to hold on to prospects. Which is smart, but doesn't make the team any more competitive in the short-term.

Plus, you've got a meddling owner like Loria.

by bobestes on Oct 5, 2007 3:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

But...

...look at it from Girardi's perspective- In New York he'd have endorsement deals providing extra cash and he'd likely get four or five years from the Yankees when no small-to-mid market team could/should go beyond three.

And, it should be noted that the Reds now have dugout dancing cheerleaders which Girardi is opposed to.

by Fat Vegas Alan on Oct 5, 2007 3:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think Torre will be fired

unless the Yanks win the WS. And even then, he might still be fired.

As it is, it seems to me that Cashman is calling the shots now, far more than in previous years.

BTW, this is a great diary. I was almost afraid to click on it, but it's very reasonable, and I, too, agree with just about everything Geki said.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Oct 5, 2007 5:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

I never thought I'd say this, but..

I'm starting to agree that now is the time to move Griffey. Whether Bruce is ready to go full-time or not, it is clear with Hopper and Votto, we have a couple backups that can step in and start if needed. Even if we don't get much for Griff, we lose the salary and we start a new era.

It would be nice to make a playoff run next year and have Griffey around to enjoy it and help, but the way he went south in August and September this year makes me wonder if he'd be much help in October.

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Oct 5, 2007 2:51 PM EDT 0 recs

This was discussed at length

at the Red Reporter outing last week...

I think the tide is definately starting to turn, and most people are getting on board with trading Griffey...

The Reds and the Radio...They're on it.

by chandrathan on Oct 5, 2007 2:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

I offer kudos

This was perhaps the most optimistic posting by Geki, at least in my recollection. I usually feel that most of your points are dead on, and this wasn't an exception. I hadn't been thrilled with Cantu, but I'd be okay with him as a bench guy. Segueing from that, the one thing we need that you didn't address is a manager that knows who to keep on the bench and who to play in the field. Having Narron really hurt us. I don't know that Mackanin is the way to go, but he did have a winning record with the team.

Also, about Gonzalez. If we can trade him, fine. I think we could really get something useful for him. But I'm also more than happy to bring him back, have Keppinger as a great bench guy, and tie some cinder block's to Castro's golden hands and drown him in the Ohio River. Does anyone know any more details about Gonzalez's son? Is his condition such that Alex will be worrying and caring for him next season? I have no idea, but I suspect that it will still be an issue.

I'm excited for Bruce, but I'm also still optimistic about Hamilton. This was his first season back after being out of ball, and his first ever above A. Yes, he looked a little fragile, and we may be lucky to get 140 games out of him in any given year, but he's a special talent when he does play. I'm glad he's on our team.

by Brendanukkah on Oct 5, 2007 3:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Manager

Looks like the Pirates fired Jim Tracy. I have no interest in him, but how long until we see him being touted in the paper because of his local ties. That is no reason to pick a manager, but someone (probably Fay) will indicate that the fact that Tracy is from Hamilton means he knows what Reds baseball means and would be great for the city and team.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2007 3:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

Don't we already have...

..a former Pirates manager kinda locked into the job?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Oct 5, 2007 3:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well

Stop me if you heard this one before...

Team fires former catcher turned manager because team sucks.

Team hires Pete Mackanin as interim manager.

Team plays much better under Mackanin.

At the end of the season, team hires recently fired Jim Tracy as new manager.

That's a formula that works!

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2007 3:44 PM EDT up 0 recs

When do we..

..trade to get Sean Casey?

by Fat Vegas Alan on Oct 5, 2007 3:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

Looking around the division

Great post, I'm on board too. Even before the pursuit of more pitching this offseason, it's critical to trade Griffey and keep the bench intact. Trading away cheap veteran depth is dumb. As for the pitching, I'm wishy-washy on paying free agent money for mediocrity when we have Belisle in house. Looking around the division, we know the cubs will be good for another season before the bloated contracts, age, and a weak farm system catch up with them. Houston, St. Louie, and Pittsburgh will all be in full blown rebuilding mode. That leaves us and Milwaukee. Click to Brew Crew Ball and read up on their starting pitching situation and you won't feel as bad about ours. They definitely won't be separating themselves from the pack next year and more payroll isn't an option. Expect more of the same. IMO, with one acquisition, we could possibly turn this into a two team race. Coco Cordero is a lockdown closer, and a free agent. By acquiring him we could stabilize our bullpen, effectively knock them from contention, and position ourselves with the cubs as the teams to beat in the Central. How much in dollars and years would you be willing to go if you believe this to be the case?

Sultan of Swaff

by Sultan of Swaff on Oct 5, 2007 4:22 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm not sure what I'd give...

But I think the going rate for him is gonna be 4 years, $40 million at the bare minimum.

by Geki on Oct 5, 2007 6:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not to challenge anyone, but...

why are people giving up on Belisle so quickly? Wasn't this basically his first full season as a starter? I didn't actually see him pitch, so there may be things you guys picked up on from actually watching. His numbers were pretty mediocre to poor, but it sure seemed like he pitched well for stretches in a lot of games and then had one bad inning where he lost his focus and gave up a bunch of runs. I know you guys hate arguing annecdotes, but what is baseball if not a bunch of annecdotes? Anyway, if my particular annecdote can be accepted as fact, it might be something he can improve with age, turning him into a pretty servicable 4th starter.

Quick! Somebody make a Cincinnati loves Ken Griffey Jr. too! video

by TheC on Oct 5, 2007 4:31 PM EDT 0 recs

Belisle

I tend to agree. The Reds fooled around with him too long in the bullpen. He's a couple of years behind in his development as a starter. I saw him pitch in AAA and the Majors, and he does have a live and moving fastball. I would rather give him another year than grab some crappy free agent and give Belisle away.

Hopper: If Hopper was starting everyday, that would actually be a sign of weakness for the Reds. But as a fourth outfielder, I really like him on the team.

Trade Griffey (?): Yes, but I think the moment passed in July. I think the Indians would have taken him then, as they had offensive outfield problems, and some other young talent worth trading. But the moment passed.

Catching: I think Valentin will be gone next year, and maybe Ross too. This is an area of weakness with no internal minor league alternative at this time.

Shortstop: I would gamble on Keppinger, quite frankly. The Reds are strong at this position in the minors, and if Kepp fails, they could come up with some in-house talent. If A-Gon has trade value, I'd roll the dice on this one.

The bullpen: Problem #1 to be solved.

Tune in tomorrow, same time, same channel, for more of the heart-rending saga, of

"RED SCARE, 2008!"

Be there. Aloha!

My karma just ran over your dogma

by Lonesome George on Oct 5, 2007 4:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Whos on the market behind the plate?

and are Ross and Valentin's contracts up?

by The Crushinator on Oct 5, 2007 8:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

catchers

LLM has a team option for $1.3M. Ross is under contract thru next season with a 2009 Team Option.

The only catchers on the market who are under 32 are Michael Barrett (30), Ramon Castro (31), and Yorvit Torrealba (29). Production-wise, there aren't a lot of free agent catchers that are worth spending money on.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2007 9:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree on Belisle

I don't think we can really give up on him yet. Let's see how he is doing next June. He may turn out solid, or he may be once highly touted dud.

by justin0070000 on Oct 6, 2007 1:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

Geki

I'm so glad I have educated you during my time here at RR, you went from knowing nothing to knowing something! Great post buddy!

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Oct 5, 2007 5:13 PM EDT 0 recs

I agreed with nearly everything you said, Geki.

I wouldn't mind dealing Gonzalez for pitching, if that can happen, and I might be a tad more in Phillips' and Hamilton's corners, but we think a lot alike.

Scary, ain't it?

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Oct 5, 2007 8:25 PM EDT 0 recs

Geki-man

I dont know a lot about ya, i know we kinda miffed on Hopper,i think, and an infield fly rule judgment, lol...

GREAT post.

by obc on Oct 5, 2007 8:51 PM EDT 0 recs

because everyone else has been so nice.....

Geki, this post sucks

(in a nice pleasant way)

by jacob brumfield on Oct 5, 2007 10:13 PM EDT 0 recs

Geki

dude, some one has hijacked your log-on.

Great post.

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Oct 6, 2007 11:45 AM EDT 0 recs

Geki - you're turning to the light - Welcome

I have been suggesting a trade of Jr. for quite some time. I hope that he can go somewhere (Seattle) and either get his ring or at least be loved. I think that Hamilton is the real deal. If he works at keeping his body in shape he should be all right injury-wise. I too, have suggested the outfield of Dunn, Hobbs and Bruce.I still hold out hope for Belizzl. I would trade Hatte in a minute for the right middle rotation pitcher. I've begun to think that for next year the catching duo we have will be all right.Unlike you (and boy do I hope I am wrong) I'm concerned about Homer...he still has a ways to go - He needs to be dominate and right now he ain't.
Of course I think that Pete is not the answer but then neither is Tony LaLoser, Dusty Baker or a host of other good old boys. And it does look like we are stuck with Waynr for another season.

Who Dey!

How long 'til Spring Training?

by Madville on Oct 6, 2007 2:33 PM EDT 0 recs