2008 = The Year

by bobestes on Oct 4, 2007 4:24 PM EDT Comment 53 comments

Chicago will be a fat, bloated team owned by owners who have taken on so much debt that they will either cut payroll or hold steady.
Pittsburgh will be the piece of crap they've always been.
Jocketty is out in St Louis because they're going to be bad for the next 3-5 years. Mark it down. No farm system + no payroll = rebuilding.
Houston has no young talent and no Biggio, Bagwell, Clemens or Petitte. See St. Louis.
Milwaukee should be good.

That leaves your Cincinnati Reds. Honestly, if there were an offseason to make a run, this is it. Bruce, get your ass up here; make a big trade for pitching, pick up Dunn's option.

Hell, they could pick up Dunn's option for next season and let him walk after. In my eyes, 2008 is the year.

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Could not agree more

2 starting pitchers, perhaps one reliever (hoping that other guys will come around), and the Reds could be set. Between the glut in the OF I think you can piece together the bench depth needed - not sure about catcher - do we bet on a return to form on Ross? what were his defensive numbers this year?

by VirginiaPreps on Oct 4, 2007 4:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ross was a top 3 defensive catcher this year

but his bat was so terrible it kind of negated it. i still think a ross/valentin catching tandem can do the trick for this team because the offense comes from every other position. i would love to see wayner make a big move and get a few arms. the farm system is fairly well stocked and we also have a few young guys who could be deemed expendable at the right price. this is going to be fun. i may not get to watch basketball at all this year if this winter turns out the way i like...

at least this isnt pittsburgh

by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 4, 2007 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately

I think 2007 was Ross's return to form.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 4, 2007 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ross

Returned to form this season, sadly.

by bobestes on Oct 4, 2007 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hookah?

Are you smoking something in your hookah?

Go for it, but just remember that a lot of these teams will look different on Opening Day in 2008.

Nobody will be standing still. I would be happy if the Reds added one good (not great) starter for 2008 (trade someone we would all like to think is surplus, eh?) and improve the bull-pen through subtraction (and you know who I mean), and brought just about everybody else back to fight it out in Spring Training.

2008. Just maybe it could happen.

I hope.

My karma just ran over your dogma

by Lonesome George on Oct 4, 2007 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

No smoking

Did you read what I wrote? Pittsburgh is terrible, and Houston/St Louis are rebuilding.

That leaves Chicago, who I think will be cash-poor due to the $1bil+ they'll sell for, and Milwaukee, who, admittedly, could be strong.

by bobestes on Oct 4, 2007 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pittsburgh is terrible...

And the Cincinnati Reds were FOUR GAMES BETTER.

So at least, we weren't terrible in 2007. That's a relief.

My karma just ran over your dogma

by Lonesome George on Oct 4, 2007 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dude

come on, they're PITTSBURGH

by bobestes on Oct 4, 2007 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More Hopper (a la More Cowbell)

by obc on Oct 4, 2007 5:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well...

This could have been the year, too. Except for the bullpen from hell, I think it would have been.

Agree about the Cubbies. They're built to win now or never.

The Pirates might not suck quite that much. They'll have a new GM. Dunno who, but presumably someone who won't take Victor Santos with his Rule 5 pick.

All Things Bubba: Because how can you not love a baseball player named Bubba?

by BubbaFan on Oct 4, 2007 5:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I still think 2009

Next year will show some promise, but 2009 is the year. Bailey I am expecting to come into his zone in the second half next season. Cueto will probably be up at some point next year, but he won't really be productive until some point in 2009. McBeth and Bray, I think next year could be a year of development for them. I think in 2009 a rotation of
Harang, Bailey, Arroyo, Cueto, Belise? could be strong. I am predicting a strong 2nd half next season, but 2009 we will be rocking and rolling.

by justin0070000 on Oct 4, 2007 5:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget

Josh Fogg and Brian Lawrence, our big free agent acquisitions.

by Red Menace on Oct 4, 2007 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Stupid signings

With Bailey up and Cueto waiting in the wings. The Red's need to give their home grown talent a shot. The only free agent's this team should be looking it is in the bullpen. Seriously Harang, Bailey, Arroyo, and Cueto could be one of the top rotations in baseball in a couple of years.

by justin0070000 on Oct 4, 2007 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

For the first time in a long time, there's some exciting talent coming from the farm system. I do appreciate the patience the organization has shown, the caution. But, when I consider that Lohse will get $10 million+ per year this offseason, I don't think free agency is the place to go for SP. Relievers, maybe. Bailey should be #3, and Cueto should get a serious look at #4. Perhaps we start out with Belisle at that spot and allow Cueto to come in if Belisle can't hold his spot.

One reasons the Reds have been so bad--no, the major reason which seems to explain so many other reasons--is the lack of home-grown talent, of players molded in the organization's vision. Now it's time to put these guys to work, I think. Votto's ready. Bailey is ready. Cueto won't be far behind. And let's not forget Bruce, a player waiting for a position.

I really believe this upswing in minor league talent will bring about a lot of positive changes for the big-league team. And soon. Who else in the division has this much top-shelf talent coming up through their system?

by jamesp50014 on Oct 5, 2007 6:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What?

No Tomo Ohka?

We Are ... Marshall!

by Thundering Turtle on Oct 4, 2007 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

oh well ohka

he will pitch this team into the world series. I mean he will throw 36 CG SHO's, and then throw 5 more CG SHO's in the post season, before his arm explodes in game 4 of the World Series.

by justin0070000 on Oct 4, 2007 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he's on our team...

He will no longer be on the Tomo Ohka All-Stars. He will become a Jimmy Haynes All Star.

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Oct 5, 2007 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

2008

Milwaukee - Will be really hungry. Look for them to go out and get another very solid starter.

Chicago - Will be competitive but finish behind Milwaukee

Pittsburgh - Will not finish last in the Central in 2008

Houston - Will improve as a team but not in the standings.

St. Louis - Will continue their slyde down the slippery slope.

Reds - ??

Hope Springs Eternal! Go Reds

by Caleb on Oct 4, 2007 6:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

When the cubs get A-Rod

I think they will be good {atleast in the regular season}

Brewers could add a veteran starter who is solid

St.Louis gets lucky so they might get a random 20 game winner {Carpenter in 04} or 40HR guy who does HGH

Stros-Pence,Berkman and Lee will be good...can the rest of the lineup be good? Oswald great....ther others could be worst than the reds

Pirates-Bay had a down year, Sanchez is solid. But they are Pittsburgh...they do have Matt Morris now!!!

Reds-Dunn and Griffey could be gone after one season...Harang had a good year not great, Bronson is an average starter who struggles to hit 90MPH now. Could be a 4th place team at best no matter what happens

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Oct 4, 2007 10:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Explain to me

how Harang didn't have a great year?

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Oct 5, 2007 2:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He was close but not there

Great is word we should rarely use

He wasn't lights out every start, in fact early in the season if he didn't get atleast 5 runs a game he wouldn't of had a few of his 16 wins. He is obviously very good, but not great. I believe that their are only two great pitchers in the MLB. Santana and Halladay. Webb, Beckett, Wong, Harang, Sabathia are very good pitchers.

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Oct 5, 2007 5:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Halladay?

It's the name isn't it? :)

I think Halladay is a great pitcher, but I'd probably rank Peavy and Webb ahead of him and maybe Oswalt as well.

I know it's just one season, and I would say that Halladay is a better pitcher, but I thought it was interesting that you said he was great and not Harang when their numbers this year were probably as close as any two starting pitchers get.
Year Ag Tm Lg W L G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP 2007 30 TOR AL 16 7 31 31 7 1 0 0 225.3 232 101 93 15 48 139 3.71 4.65 125 1.243 2007 29 CIN NL 16 6 34 34 2 1 0 0 231.7 213 100 96 28 52 218 3.73 4.75 127 1.144

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2007 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope close...

Was Slyde Speak for "Harang's numbers were quite a bit better"

The Reds and the Radio...They're on it.

by chandrathan on Oct 5, 2007 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nah

The only things Harang had a significant edge in were strikeouts and hits, and given that Halladay rarely faced pitchers, I'll give him some slack on the hits. On the other side of it Halladay gave up nearly half as many home runs and pitched 5 more complete games. I think they balance out pretty well.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2007 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes...

The homeruns were quite different, but Harang had three more starts than Halladay.

Of course, Harang didn't pitch in the A.L. East....

The Reds and the Radio...They're on it.

by chandrathan on Oct 5, 2007 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

It is the name

Zach Day
Roy Halladay
Matt Holiday

All are good players...well ok 2 of the 3 are but you can make it in the majors if you have Day anywhere in your last name. This proves that.

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Oct 5, 2007 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For a second there

I thought you were saying YOU were Zach Day.

You're not, are you?

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2007 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You caught me

I am Zach Day, but since I didn't do so well in the majors. I now work as a scout/media boy for Wayner. I report to him what the boys at RR are saying about this team and then do the exact opposite {I played the game, he is a baseball guy so we know more than you.}

...you know too much Slyde

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Oct 5, 2007 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's going to have to kill you!

Eek! red reporter voltron slyde protection force assemble!

Oh wait. I dunno if we have one of those.

Everybody's a jerk. You. Me. This jerk.

by andromache on Oct 5, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Other great pitchers...

Josh Beckett?

Jake Peavy?

Cole Hamels?

Chris Young?

Erik Bedard?

Zach, are there really only two great pitchers in MLB, or are you talking about Sega Genesis Baseball again?

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Oct 5, 2007 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did we just get lectured

on the proper parsing of good and great by the human exclamation point? Did that really happen?

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Oct 5, 2007 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gotta agree with ya MM...

Zach, hmm...there are several great pitchers right now, and Adam Harang is one of them!

The Reds and the Radio...They're on it.

by chandrathan on Oct 5, 2007 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there are only two great pitchers

Claudio Vargas and Ambiorix Burgos

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Oct 5, 2007 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exciting.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Oct 5, 2007 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you the Real Paul Householder!?!

That's Exciting!!

The Reds and the Radio...They're on it.

by chandrathan on Oct 5, 2007 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't get it...

If Krivsky doesn't exercise Adam Dunn's 2008 option, I'm a Mets fan until they fire him.

by Paul Householder on Oct 6, 2007 2:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oswalt?

Take a look at him Slyde. Ol Roy has started on a very clear decline.

by Red Menace on Oct 6, 2007 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just like Dunn, right?

I have a feeling you are being serious about this, and I think I know what you will show me, but I'm still interested to see how you see his trend as a clear decline.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 6, 2007 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

hold on

what's Red Menace going to show you declining?

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Oct 6, 2007 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oswalt

Part of this might be me thinking in terms of fantasy baseball. Oswalt fell from the ranks of elite fantasy starters this year, chiefly because his strikeout rate has continued it's steady decline. He K'ed just 154 last year.

He also posted the highest WHIP of his career by a large margin. His innings pitched have been steadily dropping as he hasn't been going as deep into games. Basically he's still a very good pitcher but he's not dominant anymore.

These peripherals haven't affected his ERA much yet. He still has that boogeyman thing going on for Reds fans, which I think makes it easy for us to overrate him. If you're talkig about the best-of-the-best pitchers (Johan, Peavey, Webb) he just doesn't belong in the discussion anymore. Especially if next year at age 30 things keep trending the way they have.

by Red Menace on Oct 7, 2007 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His K/9 in 2004 was 7.82

2007 is was 6.54. It has been dropping steadily. Also his H/9 has increased by .5 since 2004. His WHIP is 1.33. I would still take him behing Harang and before Arroyo.

by justin0070000 on Oct 7, 2007 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Surprisingly

Neither of you mentioned his most serious change, which is that he walked a full batter more per 9 IP this year compared to last. That honestly is the only thing that bothers me about the season that he had.

His K/9 rate has been dropping pretty much since he came up in the majors, with only a slight uptick in 2004 compared to 2003. Until this year, his walk rate had been dropping. Not sure what happened this year, but like I said, it's my only concern.

His line drive against rate has been dropping while his GB rate has been going up (over 53% this season). He's not up to Brandon Webb levels, but perhaps his style is evolving?

And he is going as deep into games as in the past, well almost. This year he averaged 6.6 IP per start. In his peak season when he pitched 241 innings, he averaged 6.9 IP per start. So he's averaged about 1 fewer out per start. I don't think that is significant and could be just a result of the fact that he's been injured enough to miss a couple of starts each of the last two seasons. I suppose that could be a reason to knock him off the elite step, but I'm not sure.

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 7, 2007 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he is off the "elite step"

Because he has almost 20 wins vs The Reds...that is nearly 1/5 of his wins. I think he has always been close to Elite. He is no Roy Halladay or Johan Santana. Or Madux, Glavine when they were in their prime. That is Elite!

Matt Holiday would be an Elite Pitcher as well...I knew you would ask me that!

Killer Tucans all the way!!!

by Zach K on Oct 7, 2007 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a matter of degree

When great players decline they're still really good. Then again Roger Clemens was clearly in decline in the early 90's. Maybe Oswalt has another act in his career. Like you said he may be adapting his style since his stuff is not quite as dominant.

And sure I wouldn't mind penciling him into our rotation after Harang.

by Red Menace on Oct 7, 2007 11:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe Oswalt has another act in his career.

If he's like Clemens, then the next act in his career will be titled, "Steroids".

The Reds and the Radio...They're on it.

by chandrathan on Oct 8, 2007 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I doubt it

he isn't as dedicated. He doens't seem to like playing much. He said that he will retire rather young, I feel like at the age of 32 or 33. Which bother's me. I am not saying everyone should be like Larkin, and play until they rip the uniform off of your back, there is nothing wrong going out, the way I think Glavine is going out, gracefully (minus his last start). But to just retire in your prime, pisses me off. I would give anything to have Roy Oswalt's talent and abilities. I would love to throw a fastball 94 miles per hour. I would love to be a big time starting pitcher.

by justin0070000 on Oct 8, 2007 8:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would love to have a giant tractor

I'm not superstitious...but I am a little stitious.

by Slyde on Oct 8, 2007 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then you could join...

Farmersonly.com

Lex Luthor?!? That man's my sworn enemy! I mean...uh...Who's That Dude?

by chandrathan on Oct 9, 2007 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bronson never exactly blew out the jug gun

he was always a high 80's top out at 91 kinda guy. He is successful because of his breaking stuff, and he is a smart pitcher. He has an infinite number of speeds, there is more to a pitcher then velocity (See Greg Maddux.)

by justin0070000 on Oct 5, 2007 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dont forget about the bullpen help we have

on the way in calvin medlock. calvin? hello? where's calvin?

Marty may have a shirt on, but Billy Beane just ripped his off and is squeezing his nipples. - Brendan's ukkah

by boobs on Oct 5, 2007 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

gone, but I don't blame wayne

it was predestination, as Calvin himself would tell you

"Two Dunn's enter, but only one Dunn will leave...unless neither do because they decide to play cards, drink beer, golf, and fish."--SlydeFrog

by Man Mountain on Oct 5, 2007 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Calvin's got a job. Hey Calvin!

Calvin's building his esteem and helping out his neighborhood with his job at WacArnold's. They're bringing the Rib Sandwich back soon, so you'd better be nice to Calvin. He's got that shit on lockdown. If you want ribs, you gots to go through Calvin.

by Brendanukkah on Oct 5, 2007 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs