Who's the NL MVP?
Since the powers that be have decided to fill the playoffs with off days I thought we could start debating awards. Despite the capriciousness of the official voters I'm always interested in these. I have little inclination to try to predict the horserace or to engage in semantical arguments about value (although if that's your cup of tea, have at it).
This year there will be no Morneau-over-Jeter/Mauer for statheads to rally behind. The pool of candidates in the NL is very even and any could make a good choice. Whichever player you favor, another bests him some way.
I'm looking at what I consider to be the 10 leading candidates (with apologies to Jake Peavey). I've included their slash stats (AVG/OBP/SLG), OPS+ to give some indication of park factors, Runs Created and Value Over Replacement Player to account for playing time and positional adjustment, Win Shares (THT) and Wins Above Replacement Player (level 1) to tie it all together and Jinaz's +/- runs translations of the Hardball Times fielding data (that's DEF below. I wanted to included mgl's UZR, but I couldn't find the numbers for a couple players). I'll also mention stolen bases when relevant. The candidates in alphabetical order:
Miguel Cabrera
320/401/565 OPS+ 152 RC 135 VORP 71.4 DEF -10.8 WS 30 WARP 9.1
Cabrera turned in an awesome season. If he were a strong defender he would be poised to take this, but he's a first baseman in waiting. He's near the top of the advanced metrics, but there's no compelling reason to favor him over other candidates. Also his team sucked and the player to his immediate left on the infield steals some of his thunder.
Prince Fielder
288/395/618 OPS+ 157 RC 126 VORP 69.1 DEF -11.0 WS 28 WARP 6.9
Prince took a huge step forward this year, but he looks a little outclassed among this year's top seasons. His offensive production is below some on this list and he plays a bad first base. He's the Brewer candidate and a few weeks ago it looked like he might win. Given that Milwaukee missed the playoffs he'll probably get little love now.
Matt Holliday
340/405/607 OPS+ 151 RC 125 VORP 75.0 DEF +8.3 WS 30 WARP 10.1
By powering the Rockies run to the playoffs Holliday fits a nifty story angle, but he's a solid pick even without that. He's a good defender (that brutal play in the play-in game notwithstanding) and he was worth 7-10 wins for a team that needed them all. If you like batting average that .340 is mighty tasty.
Ryan Howard
268/392/584 OPS+ 145 RC 117 VORP 53.6 DEF -7.8 WS 26 WARP 6.4
The defending champ won't likely repeat. Howard missed some time this year and saw his rate stats drop. Like Fielder he's a statue at first. He still put up a very solid season, but there's probably two teammates ahead of him.
Chipper Jones
337/425/604 OPS+ 166 RC 117 VORP 76.0 DEF +13.3 WS 26 WARP 8.7
This one surprised me. I wouldn't have included Chipper until I saw him second on David Gassko's ballot. Turns out he led the league in OPS. He's still a good defender which might make him a better choice than fellow third baseman Cabrera. The Braves' continued fall from relevance likely hurts him.
Albert Pujols
327/429/568 OPS+ 158 RC 123 VORP 72.1 DEF +30.3 WS 32 WARP 11.3
How's this for a surprise? All we heard all year is that this is a down year for Pujols, but really look at him. He saves a ton of runs with his glove, even playing first. He leads the league in WARP. His slugging is down (hurting all the fantasy players who took him first) but that could be because of New Busch Field. The Cardinals fell from their lofty 83 wins of last year which likely removes him from the discussion. But take your favorite pick for NL MVP and really compare him to down-year Albert and your guy probably comes up short.
Hanley Ramirez
332/386/562 OPS+ 147 RC 127 VORP 89.5 DEF -22.0 WS 29 WARP 8.7 (51 SB 14 CS)
Hanley put up first baseman level offense as a shortstop, which is why he kills everyone in VORP. That's balanced out by his atrocious defense--he's the Derek Jeter of the NL. However unlike Jeter Hanley isn't on a winning team. If you don't mind his D he's a solid choice.
Jimmy Rollins
296/345/531 OPS+ 122 RC 122 VORP 66.1 DEF -3.0 WS 28 WARP 9.4 (41 SB 6 CS)
Rollins seems to be the choice for people who want to celebrate the Phillies overtaking the Mets. His offense isn't close to Hanley's, but his defense is better. Even with Chase Utley's missed time it's debatable who was more valuable to their team.
Chase Utley
332/410/566 OPS+ 147 RC 108 VORP 68.8 DEF +20.2 WS 28 WARP 9.6
If Utley hadn't broken his hand in July he wouldn't probably be tops. Despite only playing 132 games he might have outproduced Rollins. He puts up great offensive numbers while playing the best second base in the league (ok, maybe it's Brandon Phillips).
David Wright
325/416/546 OPS+ 152 RC 136 VORP 81.1 DEF +28.8 WS 34 WARP 11.2 (34 SB 5 CS)
Wright leads the league in Win Shares and Runs Created. He trails only the defensively challenged Hanley Ramirez in VORP. Pujols edges him in WARP by 0.1. He plays great defense. He steals bases at a fantastic rate. But the Mets collapse will likely cost him the award, even though Wright OPSed over 1000 during the September swoon. He's my choice.
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Comments
Co-MVP's
ha.
by MixFMKyle on Oct 11, 2007 2:06 PM EDT 0 recs
boobs
by Paul Householder on Oct 11, 2007 2:17 PM EDT 0 recs
Pujols
Call me any derisive name you want, but a defensive metric that shows any 1B saves 30 runs/season (more than 1/wk) is wrong.
by sidnancy on Oct 11, 2007 2:18 PM EDT 0 recs
Wright
by ken on Oct 11, 2007 2:38 PM EDT 0 recs
i would ok with anyone of them here
- Holliday
- Wright
- Harang
- Dick Pole
by Charlie Scrabbles on Oct 11, 2007 3:00 PM EDT 0 recs
ad: I would BE ok with anyone of them here
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 11, 2007 3:01 PM EDT
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Helton
worth giving him props, but that's about it.
by bobestes on Oct 11, 2007 3:09 PM EDT 0 recs
Massive props to you Todd Helton
by Slyde on
Oct 11, 2007 3:31 PM EDT
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So far Helton is not clutch in the NLCS
by Madville on
Oct 12, 2007 1:25 AM EDT
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post season
by Red Menace on
Oct 12, 2007 2:02 AM EDT
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I agree, but I'm not sure that
by Madville on
Oct 12, 2007 9:12 AM EDT
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BBWA votes before the playoffs start
by Slyde on
Oct 12, 2007 9:18 AM EDT
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Alas, it's true.
It's too bad we can't cast our votes a little bit later, after the big shit starts to go down.

by Fat Vegas Alan on
Oct 12, 2007 9:45 AM EDT
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::cough:: 2004 ::cough::
by Brendanukkah on
Oct 12, 2007 9:55 AM EDT
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You're right.
by Fat Vegas Alan on
Oct 12, 2007 11:22 AM EDT
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I was going to make a joke about Bush's VORP
by Slyde on
Oct 12, 2007 3:24 PM EDT
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Maybe not William McKinley
Although McKinley is responsible for the scarlet carnation being named the state flower of Ohio (it was a favorite of his - he was wearing one when he was shot - and it was named the state flower in 1904 to honor him). So, the best thing McKinley did was help dictate Ohio State's colors, and have America's tallest mountain named after him. Eh, maybe it's a push.
by Brendanukkah on
Oct 12, 2007 3:41 PM EDT
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It doesn't work if you have a specific replacement
by chandrathan on
Oct 12, 2007 4:10 PM EDT
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kucinich is awesome.
:P
by andromache on
Oct 12, 2007 4:18 PM EDT
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I'm fairly certain
by Red Menace on
Oct 13, 2007 2:36 AM EDT
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haha, oh crap
by andromache on
Oct 13, 2007 3:27 AM EDT
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Speaking of 2nd Bannas How about that Gore Guy?
by Madville on
Oct 12, 2007 11:59 PM EDT
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Don't think so
by ken on
Oct 12, 2007 9:21 AM EDT
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For those of us who like some clutchiness...
Fielder 5.24
Holliday 5.06
Pujols 4.65
Cabrera 4.61
Chipper 4.23
Wright 4.09
Utley 3.78
Howard 3.48
Rollins 3.20
Hanley 2.45
All in all, prince pimped his style at the best moments, for whatever that's worth to you.
its so hard for me not to pick holliday this year, but he does have some pretty severe home/road splits. wright's gotta get the edge.
by boobs on Oct 11, 2007 4:18 PM EDT 0 recs
Matt Holiday is the NL MVP!
by Zach K on Oct 11, 2007 5:10 PM EDT 0 recs
Zach,
by ken on
Oct 11, 2007 5:29 PM EDT
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Wright or wrong
It is pretty hard to see an MVP voted in from a non-contender, so I think that Hanley and Cabrera are out. Plus, they both "sleep with the fishes".
Rollins, maybe, because he is known as a "hustle" player and had a career year in 2007.
Utley: maybe, but the Philly vote may be split between Rollins and Utley.
Pujols: no, because he's won it before with a contender.
Chipper: no, because he's a Brave and doesn't like New York City, so that faction is against him
Wright: Sure he had a great year, but the Mets just left a bad taste in the million mouths of the Metroplis Met fans. MMMMMno.
Holliday: not enough hair, plus he plays in flyover country, Colorado. If he had announced he was gay, he might have won it. Next year, better marketing.
by Lonesome George on Oct 11, 2007 5:14 PM EDT 0 recs
If we don't do AL MVP
by Zach K on Oct 11, 2007 5:21 PM EDT 0 recs
I'll post AL maybe tomorrow
by Red Menace on
Oct 11, 2007 8:21 PM EDT
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also
lose respect much?
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 11, 2007 8:26 PM EDT
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I kind of liked the pilot
by Red Menace on
Oct 11, 2007 8:29 PM EDT
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Really?
I read a good review that said that the show would be a lot better if it just lost the Cavemen. Keep the same characters, but give up the useless caveman schtick. It really provides nothing necessary to the story and it make some parts awkward because they work with a lot of assumptions that they haven't established. I agree.
Plus, I don't remember anything about it that I thought was funny. And I like the Geico commercials.
by Slyde on
Oct 11, 2007 8:46 PM EDT
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I'm open to the idea
A thing I thought was funny:
"This place is really cool."
"Yeah, if you like hanging out with pretentious posers. Can I have a tall soy machiatto and a cranberry biscotti?"
by Red Menace on
Oct 11, 2007 9:11 PM EDT
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I guess
And your description still shows that the show could be done without cavemen and probably would be a better show. I think the cavemen thing is too much of a gimmick that it overshadows what could be a mediocre idea.
by Slyde on
Oct 11, 2007 10:16 PM EDT
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I haven't seen the show..

by Fat Vegas Alan on
Oct 11, 2007 10:34 PM EDT
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mmmm
by andromache on
Oct 12, 2007 12:57 AM EDT
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ive seen both episodes that have aired
the biggest problem is the way ABC is marketing it. the "make a man date" song does nothing to sell the show and is stupidly lame. in Zach's "good to very very great" scale, it would be a "very not so good".
by Charlie Scrabbles on
Oct 12, 2007 10:13 AM EDT
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That is why he is a good player but not great
Didn't he hit a walkoff off stormy last season though?
by Zach K on
Oct 11, 2007 9:52 PM EDT
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nah
by Slyde on
Oct 11, 2007 10:11 PM EDT
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Oh that right
I'm still pissed about the Pujols Walk Off from last year! I saw it coming a mile away as well but damn...
by Zach K on
Oct 12, 2007 6:52 PM EDT
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He really needs to work on
by Red Menace on
Oct 11, 2007 10:55 PM EDT
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The Great Wright Hope
He's my choice.
by Man Mountain on Oct 11, 2007 5:42 PM EDT 0 recs
this is one instance where
by Daedalus on Oct 13, 2007 4:35 PM EDT 0 recs














