A Little Milestone Poll

by satyanaas on Jan 31, 2007 11:35 AM EST

Slyde's post got me interested in the general optimism/pessimism towards Griffey's 2007 season right now. I'm hoping, like many of you, that he does himself (and the team) a favor and takes a little bit of pressure and wear and tear off himself and makes the move to RF. But, regardless, I think he still has at least one 40 HR season left in him. So I think he's going to tease the 600 HR mark this season. For once, I think its going to refreshing to be able to root for somebody hitting a HR milestone that doesn't warrant an "*". (besides Juan Castro chasing 40 of course).

Poll

In 2007, Griffey will

hit over 37 and join the 600 Club!

17 votes

Hit over 30 but not 37 HRs.

13 votes

hit over 20-30 HR.

18 votes

hit 10-20 HRs.

3 votes

be out slugged by Juan Castro.

1 votes

52 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

HOME RUNS

I think Jr will have a big HR year, 40+

Also, I think Ryan Howard will become the first guy to eclipse Roger Maris' long standing record record of 61 home runs. Can you believe it has stood for 45 seasons?

"Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes." - Crash Davis

by Caleb on Jan 31, 2007 12:14 PM EST reply actions

junior will hit 40+

but you might as well say pete rose didn't break ty cobbs record, because everyone knows he and the entire big red machine used greenies.

A woman needs baseball like Lance Armstrong needs a bicycle.

by Daedalus on Jan 31, 2007 3:01 PM EST up reply actions

greenies

were they a banned substance?

"Your shower shoes have fungus on them. You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes." - Crash Davis

by Caleb on Feb 1, 2007 12:16 AM EST up reply actions

steroids weren't banned, either

A woman needs baseball like Lance Armstrong needs a bicycle.

by Daedalus on Feb 1, 2007 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

it's up to him

Okay, I realize that many of Junior's injuries havce been legit and freak accidents. I acknowledge this and defend Griffey in this way. However, I would really like to see Griffey show that he really WANTS to have a big year by coming into camp at a lighter weight. Has anyone else noticed that he has put on quite a bit of weight over the past few years? I know he is getting older and that it is harder to take off the weight but, to me, I think he needs to get into tip-top shape and prove everyone wrong. I just don't see that he is fully aware of how his status has dropped in everyone's eyes. I don't get a feel that he feels URGENT about coming back in awesome shape and playing at a higher level. I think he tries hard and wants to play well. I just wish he would come into camp about 10-15 lbs lighter than he has been lately. I'm not saying this would fix everything but it would go a long way in showing that he is "sold out" to playing well.

Am I off-base here?

by nighthawk32 on Jan 31, 2007 5:04 PM EST up reply actions

Bubble Wrap

that's what I want Jr encased in when he arrives for training. If he's carted in 200lbs heavier to prve he wasn't doing anything strenuous that could possibly shred an internal, fine with me. We'll set him in the field and just have him to look at.

I know what you're saying, but what can you do, the dude's fragile. Almost too fragile to be used everyday or whipped into shape. But paid too much to sit. I think the biggest question is do we want him re-signed when he's done?

"Sometimes life kicks you in the teeth, kids.....even when you're eating cake"- obc

by sukr on Feb 1, 2007 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

yeah, definitely put on weight

lots of it.

A woman needs baseball like Lance Armstrong needs a bicycle.

by Daedalus on Feb 1, 2007 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

Slimming down...

...might help with the injury issue. Less weight on the joints and muscles, and all that. Jorge Posada lost 12 lbs. over the off-season last year, and it made a big difference, both with injuries and defense.

And it might shut up the critics who say the injuries are the result of not working out in the off-season.

"A man once told me to walk with the Lord. I'd rather walk with the bases loaded." - Ken Singleton

by BubbaFan on Feb 1, 2007 7:31 PM EST up reply actions

HR rate

It's really an issue of playing time, how healthy his is. Here are Jr's AB/HR since he came to Cincinnati.

13
16.5
24.6
12.7
15
14
15.8

His average is 15, or what he's done the past three years. His injuries obviously sapped his power in '01 and especially in '02.

At his rate of 15 at bats per home run he would need over 550 at bats to hit 40. He hasn't done that since '99. Even if he had an uptick in his power--13 AB/HR--he would need 520.

I voted for 20-30, which would mean 300-450 at bats, and I do think I'm being positive and optimistic.

by Red Menace on Jan 31, 2007 12:36 PM EST reply actions

Dude

Thanks for going and swaying the poll with your well-reasoned statistical analysis. Geez. ; )

by satyanaas on Jan 31, 2007 1:07 PM EST up reply actions

honestly

I take a weird glee in this.

by Red Menace on Jan 31, 2007 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

As you should

That's an RR instant classic signature if I've every seen one: I take a weird glee in this

by satyanaas on Jan 31, 2007 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

Did you know?

Griffey is the second on the Reds career AB/HR ratio list? Only behind Dunn? Surprised the hell out of me.

Dunn 14.3 AB/HR
Griffey 14.9 AB/HR
Eric Davis 16.1 AB/HR
Frank Robinson 17.1 AB/HR
Wally Post 17.6 AB/HR

by indy on Jan 31, 2007 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

I was also surprised to see he's second in team history in slugging percentage.

Frank Robinson .554
Ken Griffey .530
George Foster .514
Adam Dunn .513
Ted Kluszewski .512
Eric Davis .510

by Red Menace on Jan 31, 2007 3:45 PM EST up reply actions

I wonder

what that looks like park and era adjusted. Davis probably jumps to second place.

by ken on Jan 31, 2007 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

An Attempt

Comparing them to their league (an estimate):



      Player           SLG    LG  DIFF

   1. Frank Robinson  .554  .414  .140

   2. George Foster   .514  .388  .126

   3. Eric Davis      .510  .401  .109

   4. Ted Kluszewski  .512  .416  .096

   5. Ken Griffey     .530  .444  .076

   6. Adam Dunn       .513  .437  .076

This is just an estimate. I calculated a number of TB the league would have had with that player's number of At Bats in each season as a Red and then used that to estimate an overall league slugging percentage for their time with the Reds. I don't know if that's the right way to do it, and if I was at home, I would just pull it up on the old Sabermetric Encyclopedia, but I'm not so you get this. I also only calculated this for the players on the list, so potentially someone could knock Dunn and Griffey off when compared to the league.

by Slyde on Jan 31, 2007 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

my methodology

My methodolgy was guessing, but you got this up first and it's probably a little more accurate.

by Red Menace on Jan 31, 2007 4:32 PM EST up reply actions

Thanks

I didn't realize Foster's era was that offensively depressed. Then again no one hit 50 HRs after him until Cecil Fielder squeezed into a Tiger uniform.

by ken on Jan 31, 2007 5:14 PM EST up reply actions

Correction

It looks like my method was slightly off, plus a couple of guys from long ago jump on to the list. Here's the top 20 vs. league average (min 1000 PA):

SLG                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE  

1    Frank Robinson             .147     .554     .407  

2    George Foster              .127     .514     .387  

3    Cy Seymour                 .122     .463     .341  

4    Sam Crawford               .118     .474     .356  

5    Eric Davis                 .115     .510     .395  

6    Kal Daniels                .114     .506     .392  

7    Charley Jones              .110     .447     .337  

8    Lee May                    .108     .490     .383  

9    Babe Herman                .103     .510     .407  

10   John Reilly                .103     .449     .346

11   Ted Kluszewski             .100     .512     .412  

12   Ken Griffey Jr.            .093     .530     .437  

13   Tony Perez                 .091     .474     .383  

14   Johnny Bench               .090     .476     .386  

15   Hal Chase                  .085     .423     .339  

16   Joe Morgan                 .083     .470     .388  

17   Wally Post                 .082     .498     .416  

18   Adam Dunn                  .080     .513     .433  

19   Edd Roush                  .079     .462     .383  

20   Jake Beckley               .079     .443     .364

by Slyde on Jan 31, 2007 10:04 PM EST up reply actions

Wow

I can only imagine what kind of immortal, Cincinnati legend he would be if he hadn't had the misfortune of the past few years of injuries. Damn.

by satyanaas on Jan 31, 2007 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

I think the 600 mark will inspire the 37

He strikes me as the kind of guy who would like to retire on an even number.

GO REDS!

by ewquinn on Jan 31, 2007 2:06 PM EST reply actions

He'll get stuck..

He likes to get stuck on numbers so probably 598 or 599.

by snohio on Feb 1, 2007 2:15 PM EST reply actions

by the way

Craig Biggio is chasing 3000 hits, but I"m sure nobody cares about that.

by Red Menace on Feb 1, 2007 2:24 PM EST reply actions

Yeah

that's pretty much the only reason he's still playing. Did you know his OBP was .306 last year? This is for a guy with a nearly .370 career OBP. Have some pride and realize you've no longer got it. At least he is blocking Chris Burke from playing and hurting the Astros offense.

by Slyde on Feb 1, 2007 2:28 PM EST up reply actions