PECOTA batting projections

by teb7 on Jan 17, 2007 9:58 PM EST

Baseball Prospectus just released their 2007 PECOTA projections. Here are some notable Reds' offensive projections. The one that blew me out of the water was Votto. Hopefully he'll be up with the team sometime in 2007. Remember, these are the "weighted mean" projections.

Jay Bruce: .264/.319/.464 (not quite ready yet)

Jeff Conine: .268/.334/.401 (thanks Wayne)

Bubba Crosby: .249/.315/.376 (thanks again!)

Chris Denorfia: .296/.365/.459 (pretty tasty...especially if they play him in CF)

Adam Dunn: .267/.390/.574 (um...seems a bit optimistic, but we can hope!)

EdE: .277/.350/.482 (I'm hoping for more)

Ryan Freel: .271/.361/.404 (eh...)

Alex Gonzalez: .258/.309/.426 (hold me)

Junior: .275/.344/.506 (I'll take it)

Hatteberg: .285/.372/.416 (too bad he plays 1st)

Hollandsworth: .269/.323/.452 (erm, not bad for a 4th OF...why do we need Conine again?)

Phillips: .273/.331/.419 (he'll SLG better than this)

David Ross: .240/.324/.459 (he'll be better than this)

Drew Stubbs: .217/.282/.311 (DEFINITELY not ready)

Valentin: .242/.314/.403 (meh)

Joey Votto: .284/.366/.511 (holy CRAP that's an awesome line--get him in the bigs! Hafner is on his comps list!)

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thanks

I'd been waiting for a BP subscriber to hook me up.

Adam Dunn's projections are always optimistic, especially BA. They used to always get me excited. Not so much now, although I still expect him to bounceback.

ZiPs loves Denorfia too. He could be a big surprise.

by Red Menace on Jan 17, 2007 10:20 PM EST reply actions

Dunn

My SlydeRule puts Dunn at .255/.381/.530 next year.

Deno's slugging looks a little high to me, but otherwise, I think it's close.

Edwin's line is basically what he put up last year. I would expect a little more development since he has proven in the past that he can make strides when he starts to learn a league. SlydeRule says: .285/.365/.490.

I wish there was a system behind SlydeRule, that would be cool.

by Slyde on Jan 17, 2007 10:49 PM EST up reply actions

ross, phillips, and EE

I disagree with teb7. I think that's pretty realistic for those three.

by greg456 on Jan 17, 2007 10:30 PM EST reply actions

Marcel

For comparison, since they haven't been posted on the site before, here is how Marcel predicts the same players (minor leaguers not included):

Jeff Conine: .270/.330/.406

Bubba Crosby: .247/.302/.379

Chris Denorfia: .278/.351/.423

Adam Dunn: .254/.378/.528

EdE: .276/.355/.478

Ryan Freel: .275/.367/.397

Alex Gonzalez: .256/.303/.405 (I think I picked the right one)

Junior: .267/.337/.497

Hatteberg: .271/.356/.396

Hollandsworth: .259/.314/.427

Phillips: .277/.332/.430

David Ross: .245/.323/.465

Valentin: .266/.329/.454

by Slyde on Jan 17, 2007 11:05 PM EST reply actions

Am I missing something?

Hollandsworth? He's not on the roster anymore, right?

by indy on Jan 18, 2007 7:53 AM EST up reply actions

No he's not

I think he was included on the Reds for PECOTA because he doesn't have a team yet. I left him on the Marcel list just as a reference.

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 8:46 AM EST up reply actions

Hey how about that...

Todd Hollandsworth doesn't have a team? Never would have guessed.

I will always remeber the Todd Holandsworth Reds Era with that catch he made in extra innings against the Phillies to temporary save the game. The same game that we eventually loss in 14 innings that was highlighted by Eric Milton being brought in to pinch hit for our last relief pitcher in the 13th, Harang pitching a scoreless 13th, and EZ Ramirez (the next day's starter) pitching the 14th.

I hated the Todd Hollandsworth Era.

by indy on Jan 18, 2007 10:50 AM EST up reply actions

Hollandsworth doesn't have a team...

...but Chad Moeller does!

by greg456 on Jan 18, 2007 11:33 AM EST up reply actions

Oh

I just noticed that Moeller had gone unprojected...

PECOTA doesn't list him, but Marcel gives him this line: .224/.283/.360. Awesome.

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

And for those scoring at home

That's the 5th lowest OPS that Marcel projects for next season. Good thing Wayne snatched him up before someone else grabbed him.

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 11:39 AM EST up reply actions

Hollandsworth

I read the other day that Colorado is talking with Hollandsworth. That should tack a few more years onto his career.

by Brian B on Jan 18, 2007 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

A couple of others that are missing

Juan Castro
PECOTA: .254/.292/.364
Marcel: .253/.291/.384

Norris Hopper
PECOTA: .270/.312/.313
Marcel: .289/.360/.442
(wow, that's a big difference)

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 11:48 AM EST reply actions

Norris

I had no idea he was Rafael Furcal. Look what we have on our hands.

Marcel be crazy.

by greg456 on Jan 18, 2007 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

As I understand it

Marcel is purely a regression system, and supposedly it's the simplest of the major forecasting systems. I think that's why you can get crazy numbers for a player like Hopper.

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 2:13 PM EST up reply actions

Accuracy

PECOTA was the most accurate for hitters last year, Zips was tops for pitchers. FWIW.

by ken on Jan 18, 2007 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

and ZiPS fpr good measure

Name                     P  Age   AVG   OBP   SLG   G  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB   K SB CS

Adam Dunn*               lf  27  .259  .382  .536 160 556 103 144 32  1 40  98 107 170  4  1

Ken Griffey Jr. *        cf  37  .270  .342  .506 111 423  60 114 22  0 26  77  47  86  0  0

Edwin Encarnacion        3b  24  .275  .351  .489 132 454  66 125 37  0 20  72  46  95  6  3

Chris Denorfia           cf  26  .287  .353  .440 129 418  64 120 22  3 12  51  41  82  8  3

Rich Aurilia             ss  35  .280  .336  .465 110 389  50 109 22  1 16  62  33  56  1  0

Dave Ross                c   30  .234  .326  .482  77 197  24  46 11  1 12  37  25  64  0  0

Scott Hatteberg*         1b  37  .270  .360  .398 140 460  55 124 26  0 11  62  63  50  1  1

Joey Votto*              1b  23  .259  .334  .451 132 474  76 123 32  1 19  56  53 110 10  5

Javier Valentin#         c   31  .256  .326  .446  83 195  26  50  8  1  9  33  19  34  0  0

Ryan Freel               cf  31  .265  .361  .376 129 441  69 117 25  3  6  26  58  89 30  9

Brendan Harris           3b  26  .258  .318  .431 127 418  64 108 25  1 15  61  32  79  3  2

Jason LaRue              c   33  .234  .331  .411 101 316  33  74 18  1 12  48  32  93  0  1

Jesse Gutierrez          1b  29  .256  .324  .402 114 383  44  98 24  1 10  51  35  73  0  0

Brandon Phillips         2b  26  .266  .320  .405 138 511  71 136 27  1 14  56  36  81 17  4

Earl Snyder              3b  31  .238  .291  .441 131 474  64 113 28  1 22  73  33 118  1  0

Noochie Varner           lf  26  .256  .314  .368 131 429  58 110 26  2  6  42  33  92  5  3

Todd Hollandsworth*      lf  34  .247  .296  .407  99 231  25  57 14  1  7  34  16  80  1  3

Norris Hopper            lf  28  .286  .330  .329 119 416  51 119 11  2  1  31  24  40 15  7

Jay Bruce*               rf  20  .236  .289  .403 117 419  59  99 33  2 11  45  29 113 11  7

Royce Clayton            ss  37  .261  .314  .347 140 499  54 130 28  3  3  41  38 108  9  4

Javon Moran              cf  24  .284  .316  .356  74 278  36  79 10  2  2  14  11  40 13  9

Brandon Watson*          cf  25  .282  .324  .337 124 439  68 124 14  2  2  28  24  52 19 13

Ray Olmedo#              ss  26  .256  .311  .343 111 344  40  88 17  2  3  23  27  67  9  4

Eric Crozier*            rf  28  .208  .281  .383  49 154  17  32 13  1  4  17  15  64  2  1

Matt Kata#               rf  29  .243  .287  .368 102 296  34  72 15  2  6  24  14  51  3  3

DeWayne Wise*            cf  29  .233  .280  .380  99 292  36  68 13  3  8  31  16  58  8  4

Jerry Gil                ss  24  .226  .256  .415 113 424  62  96 20  3 18  61  14 105  5  5

William Bergolla         2b  24  .258  .292  .330 114 415  48 107 20  2  2  28  18  50 10  5

Juan Castro              ss  35  .240  .277  .351 104 262  23  63 15  1  4  28  11  58  1  1

Ryan Jorgensen           c   28  .194  .276  .327  67 196  20  38  8  0  6  21  20  61  0  0

Andy Machado#            ss  26  .201  .288  .303 109 333  39  67 15  2  5  24  39  96  5  5

Marland Williams         cf  26  .203  .262  .314 106 354  49  72 13  4  6  26  25 113 27 14

Miguel Perez             c   23  .217  .256  .275 108 374  36  81 13  0  3  25  15  84  3  1

by Red Menace on Jan 18, 2007 12:00 PM EST reply actions

Interesting

All three systems are pretty much identical on EdE:
PECOTA: .277/.350/.482
Marcel: .276/.355/.478
ZiPS: .275/.351/.489

And all of those are fairly close to his 2006 line of .276/.359/.473. Seems like they would project someone at his age group to progress some, doesn't it?

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

Also interesting:

Brendan Harris with 15 HR and 61 RBI.

Either ZiPS or Waynerhead is out to lunch. I have my theories on which is true...

Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Jan 18, 2007 1:35 PM EST up reply actions

And, while we're here

Here is how the CHONE system sees the Reds:

name                Age   AB    R     H  Dbl Tpl   HR  RBI  SB  CS   BB   SO HBP   BA   OBP    SLG   OPS

Dunn,Adam            27  531  108   133   26   1   42   99   6   1  107  169   7  .251  .383  .542  .925

Encarnacion,Edwin    24  454   68   124   32   1   18   70   8   2   47   89   7  .274  .352  .465  .816

Griffey,Ken          37  439   70   115   22   0   24   71   0   0   45   87   3  .262  .334  .479  .814

Ross,David           30  233   32    56   11   1   12   32   0   0   27   67   3  .239  .325  .454  .779

Hatteberg,Scott      37  461   64   123   25   0   11   53   1   1   61   48   4  .268  .358  .393  .752

Valentin,Javier      31  193   24    51    9   1    8   26   0   0   17   32   1  .266  .327  .444  .772

Denorfia,Chris       26  440   55   123   22   2   11   53  13   4   40   82   2  .280  .343  .417  .760

Votto,Joey           23  491   63   127   32   1   16   61  10   5   56  130   1  .258  .336  .425  .761

Freel,Ryan           31  437   77   115   25   3    6   41  30  10   54   83   9  .262  .355  .375  .729

Phillips,Brandon     26  513   77   134   28   1   14   53  14   5   37   83   6  .261  .319  .405  .725

Abad,Andy            34  335   39    83   16   1   11   39   1   2   30   52   4  .248  .317  .396  .713

Conine,Jeff          41  454   50   121   25   2    8   50   2   2   36   70   3  .266  .325  .384  .709

Gonzalez,Alex        31  425   47   108   24   2   13   51   2   1   24   78   6  .255  .303  .412  .714

Crosby,Bubba         30  211   24    52   10   1    5   23   7   1   16   42   4  .246  .310  .372  .682

Olmedo,Ray           26  320   34    85   16   2    4   33  10   4   23   56   2  .266  .320  .364  .684

Hollandsworth,Todd   34  239   26    58   13   1    7   28   1   3   17   52   1  .243  .297  .400  .697

Wise,Dewayne         29  277   30    68   15   2    7   32   9   3   15   55   3  .245  .292  .392  .684

Hopper,Norris        28  461   47   126   16   2    3   44  20   6   26   46   2  .273  .316  .338  .653

Mccracken,Quinton    36  186   19    47    8   1    2   18   3   2   15   30   1  .251  .310  .344  .653

Watson,Brandon       25  410   42   113   15   2    2   39  18   9   23   48   1  .275  .315  .337  .652

Bruce,Jay            20  331   35    80   22   1    7   37  11   6   20   91   2  .243  .289  .382  .671

Bergolla,William     24  406   41   105   22   2    3   40  17   5   22   52   2  .260  .301  .345  .646

Janish,Paul          24  385   41    89   16   1    9   39   6   2   29   66   4  .232  .293  .348  .640

Strait,Cody          24  474   53   106   23   2   13   50  29   6   28  125   8  .223  .277  .360  .637

Moeller,Chad         32  222   22    49   10   0    5   22   0   1   15   52   3  .221  .280  .341  .621

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 2:16 PM EST reply actions

hmm

Not very nice to Ross.

by greg456 on Jan 18, 2007 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

Finally

Here is the average of the 4 systems mentioned on this page:

Name           AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS

Dunn          .257   .384   .541   .925

Encarnacion   .275   .351   .476   .828

Griffey       .265   .337   .488   .826

Votto         .269   .347   .462   .810

Ross          .245   .321   .464   .785

Denorfia      .285   .353   .432   .785

Gonzalez      .272   .328   .443   .771

Valentin      .259   .325   .444   .768

Hatteberg     .273   .360   .400   .760

Freel         .268   .358   .388   .747

Bruce         .250   .303   .425   .727

Phillips      .259   .314   .410   .724

Conine        .267   .330   .393   .723

Crosby        .251   .321   .390   .711

Wise          .242   .290   .391   .680

Hopper        .277   .323   .347   .669

Moeller       .216   .274   .336   .610

I tried to only include players that might have a chance at playing time this year (and Jay Bruce).

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 3:11 PM EST reply actions

Last Years

Does anyone have last years pre-season numbers to compare with the final results? I'm always curious how they turn out.

And the closest to .300 is short by 15 and that is Denorfia.. Wow.. I know Average is meaningless..blah blah, but still..

by snohio on Jan 18, 2007 4:35 PM EST reply actions

Here's some

http://www.redreporter.com/story/2006/1/27/174043/146

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 4:39 PM EST up reply actions

Lazy.

Yeah, but I am lazy and that would require me to put stuff in a spreadsheet.. I've been doing that all day for work.. :)

Thanks for doing the search for me though.

by snohio on Jan 18, 2007 4:41 PM EST up reply actions

somewhere

I know they compare who the various systems do. Pecota is generally hard to beat.

by Red Menace on Jan 18, 2007 5:04 PM EST up reply actions

oh, here you go

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/2006_projection_results/

by Red Menace on Jan 18, 2007 5:05 PM EST up reply actions

care to share

the numbers for our pitchers?

by Blue on Jan 18, 2007 6:57 PM EST reply actions

Pitching PECOTA

Remember, pitcher forecaster is much less accurate:

Name                W   L  SV   G  GS     IP    H   BB   SO  HR   GB%  BABIP   WHIP     RA    ERA

Bill Bray           3   3   3  49   2   54.7   54   19   45   6   44%   .294   1.34   4.24   3.91

Todd Coffey         3   3   4  52   0   59.0   66   19   42   6   51%   .316   1.43   4.49   4.10

Aaron Harang       12  10   0  29  29  189.7  196   48  159  27   45%   .301   1.29   4.56   4.21

Eddie Guardado      2   2   3  38   0   38.3   39   13   36   6   38%   .303   1.36   4.56   4.28

Matt Belisle        3   3   1  38   3   56.7   61   21   39   6   53%   .305   1.45   4.77   4.33

Bronson Arroyo     12  11   0  31  31  201.7  207   57  148  29   43%   .288   1.31   4.76   4.40

Gary Majewski       3   3   1  50   0   57.0   61   24   35   6   52%   .297   1.49   4.88   4.44

David Weathers      3   3   4  45   0   53.0   57   22   36   7   47%   .299   1.50   5.01   4.61

David Shafer        2   3   1  22   4   47.7   48   18   38   7   42%   .288   1.39   5.00   4.63

Homer Bailey        7   8   1  32  20  129.0  122   66  119  18   46%   .290   1.46   5.03   4.64

Kyle Lohse          7   9   1  41  18  132.7  150   43   93  18   45%   .311   1.45   5.28   4.87

Jon Coutlangus      3   4   1  29   6   57.3   60   34   40   5   53%   .304   1.64   5.53   5.00

Elizardo Ramirez    6   8   0  31  17  113.3  128   32   71  18   46%   .299   1.41   5.50   5.07

Brad Salmon         2   3   1  23   5   49.7   51   28   41   7   46%   .301   1.58   5.52   5.08

Rheal Cormier       1   1   1  30   0   29.0   34   11   15   5   49%   .299   1.55   5.58   5.12

Johnny Cueto        7   9   0  35  21  138.3  145   58  105  26   44%   .288   1.47   5.49   5.13

Mike Stanton        2   2   2  44   0   42.0   49   17   29   6   44%   .316   1.58   5.61   5.17

Brian Shackelford   2   2   1  46   1   37.7   41   20   28   5   47%   .308   1.62   5.67   5.21

Eric Milton         6   8   0  29  17  112.7  127   35   71  23   37%   .288   1.43   5.73   5.39

Steven Kelly        4   6   0  25  12   82.3   95   36   49  12   50%   .305   1.59   6.14   5.63

Travis Wood         6   9   0  23  23  123.0  128   67   91  29   39%   .271   1.58   5.98   5.68

Carlos Guevara      3   4   1  27   6   57.3   67   28   46  11   45%   .319   1.65   6.21   5.81

Phil Dumatrait      4   7   0  27  16   94.7  108   50   64  16   46%   .304   1.66   6.30   5.84

Paul Wilson         3   4   0  19   9   60.3   75   18   31  12   43%   .304   1.53   6.29   5.88

Josh Hall           4   7   0  27  15   93.7  114   38   52  15   53%   .311   1.61   6.55   6.01

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 7:35 PM EST reply actions

whoah

that's depressing

by Blue on Jan 18, 2007 7:52 PM EST up reply actions

Ha

I looked at that and thought "hey that's encouraging". This team has really set the bar low for pitching.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Jan 18, 2007 10:35 PM EST up reply actions

lol

I think it's safe to say that no formula can figure out who's closing games for the Reds this season.

BTW, the best WHIP in those projections is 1.29.

by greg456 on Jan 18, 2007 10:52 PM EST up reply actions

That's funny

I noticed that too. Hopefully it's not because they don't expect the Reds to win too many close games.

by Slyde on Jan 18, 2007 10:55 PM EST up reply actions

why do our pitchers

start a combined 255 games? If we play 255 games, we'll win at least 100. Looks like we're in the playoffs...

Fynal Cut... Get skewered

by boobs on Jan 19, 2007 12:35 AM EST up reply actions

I like that math

PECOTA doesn't take depth charts into account. It's a projection of what a player would do if he were a starter. His projected playing time is heavily dependent on his previous 3 years' playing time, which is why many projections must be taken with salt licks. BP does publish a spreadsheet with projections based on depth charts/playing time that gives a more accurate picture of counting stats.

by teb7 on Jan 19, 2007 1:01 AM EST up reply actions

ahh

thank you very much, tebnacious

Fynal Cut... Get skewered

by boobs on Jan 21, 2007 1:46 AM EST up reply actions

For those who don't like to follow links

Here's how the projection systems fared last year.

Hitters
PECOTA .736 (!)
Shandler .702
BIS/James .685
ZiPS .684
Chone .677
Marcel .664

Pitchers
ZiPS .459
PECOTA .451
BIS/James .445
Marcel .432
Chone .424
Shandler .423
Prior YearFIP .370
Prior Year .290

This really shows how hard it is to forecast pitchers. Also of note is how Marcel performed. Here's how a smart, well known guy who came up with Marcel put it:
Note: I do not stand behind these forecasts. These forecasts are the minimum level of competence that you should expect from any forecaster. Do not attach my name to these forecasts in any kind of evaluation experiment. They should only be referred to as Marcel The Monkey Forecasting System, or simply The Marcels.

Despite all the hard work put into these systems nobody can beat Marcel by more than 10% which goes to show how hard it is. And Marcel fared well in pitching.

And my answer to anyone who would poo-poo the proceedings is "give me your predicted stats for everyone in baseball."

by Red Menace on Jan 18, 2007 11:02 PM EST reply actions