"A Logical Fallacy describes an error in reasoning that can lead you to a false conclusion."

One of the problems with saber heads and their reasoning about OPS (OBP + SLG) correlating with runs scored is the following:

And by the way this is CONCEPTUAL. Stat heads like to play the same games car salesman do when they ask you "What do you want your monthly payment to be?" Once you get a dollar amount you can then of course go through gyrations with numbers/formulas and beat it by 20 bucks to presumably get "the sale" (don't look at the down payment or years on loan though).......

As HORRIBLE as Dunn has been this year stat heads will say look at his OPS only Ross is higher. Then they will say OPS correlates with Run Scoring stronger than OBP, SLG or BA so the conclusion is simple - Ross hasn't played every daye, so Dunn has been the best offensive player on team.....(not really though).....

As a pitcher who would you rather walk? Ryan Freel or Adam Dunn? You'd rather walk Dunn.  Who is more likely to cause trouble on the bases and presumably more likely to score starting from first base? Freel or Dunn? Freel of course. Freel on first base is of much higher value to the team than Dunn but OBP awards them equal value.

Similarly, suppose you have two outs and bases empty. A pitcher now has in essence 3 free bags at his disposal to use to get ONE out. If he tries to get ahead with the first batter (Dunn for example) but doesn't, then he just walks him - no sweat.  That walk has NOWHERE NEAR the same value to the TEAM as a walk with no outs or a bases loaded walk, etc...etc... with Dunn on first and no risk of stealing second, the pitcher now still has 2 free bags at his disposal to get just ONE out. Again, he can pitch to get ahead, get batter to make a mistake....

In above situation, a homerun "threat" will be far more likely to pick up a tactical walk. It will count as a base for his OBP but it will be of far less value to team than a walk in other situations or to a different player.

If you've ever played Texas Hold 'em you know POSITION is everything.   A pair of fours has one value when you're on the button and a whole different value when you're first to play.

Trying to place a value on tactical walks is dicey and difficult. So what do the saber formulas do? They just dismiss the different values.  They dismiss the fact that walks have different values depending on player receiving walk or situation and treat them all as the same.....all comes out in the wash right? wrong

Ryan Freel walks will ALWAYS be of higher value than Adam Dunn walks. And Ryan Freel not being a homerun threat will always get fewer tactical walks based on situation/men on base/outs etc and his speed.......  

Furthermore, apart from a bases empty situation a walk will ALWAYS be of less value than a "single". Hits advance runners at least one base but maybe more and force defense to execute.  OBP treats singles and walks equally. OBP as a measure of value would say a player who received 100 walks had the same value to team as a player who had 100 singles. This couldn't be further from the truth.

Be wary of the slow "power hitter" with the high OBP - his OBP is artificially inflated. He is being given the open jump shot because the defense wants him to shoot. Check out the BA of a high OBP power hitter before making appraisal. If you see high OBP and relatively high BA (along with POWER) then you have a find. If you see OBP but peculiarly LOW BA....red flag it baby !!!