How good is Brandon Phillips?

by rojosoto on Sep 21, 2006 3:11 PM EDT Comment 29 comments

Is Brandon Phillips part of this untouchable, young core that should be a mainstay in the middle of Cincinnati's infield for the next 5-10 years?

Should he be shifted to shortstop next year to improve the middle of the diamond defense?

He's been very streaky this year. Everyone in Cincinnati is in love with him after a great first impression in April. He's been branded as being a good bat, with a good glove, and great speed. Let's examine each of these.

.763 OPS on the season is 8th out of 20 qualified 2nd basemen (ESPN.com stats page.) His OBP is only .329, ranking 15th out of 20. He is #1 in SB% for anyone attempting more than 10 steals.
By month he has hit - OPS
April - 970
May - 675
June - 871
July - 564
Aug - 981
Sept - 398

His defense has not been as good as advertised. His .977 fielding percentage ranks him 21 out of 23 qualified fielders. His Range Factor (12th) and Zone Rating (11th) are middle of the pack. Will that translate to successful play at Shortstop?

For as much grief as Adam Dunn gets about his streakiness and his defensive errors, Phillips seems to have gotten a pass, regardless of his 675, 564, and 398 OPS's in each of May, July, and September or his 15 errors.

If I were the Reds GM, I would definitely consider the possibility of Phillips being a good buy low, sell high candidate. If Phillips trade value has grown appreciably over the course of the season, I would certainly entertain trade offers for Phillips.

It also appears on the surface that moving him to SS may be a bad idea.

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Phillips

While he's nowhere near as good as people make him out to be, we really can't afford to trade him. He's still an average to above-average 2B (and I do not support the move to SS), and with the trade of Felipe, we just don't have the room to trade a MI.

by Geki on Sep 21, 2006 3:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's slick-fielding...

Which is why his defense will always be thought of as better than it is (like T.S.F. Juan Castro). He will continue to be slick-fielding until he is old enough to use a cane.

That being said, he is a better option at 2nd than anyone else I can think of, and he fields well enough to not have to hit like Chase Utley.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Sep 21, 2006 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

does EVERYTHING have to be negative?

don't we have enough to complain about without ripping apart the bright spots of the season?

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Sep 21, 2006 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not negative

I was attempting to point out facts about Phillips season. I tried to focus on both the good and the bad.

Is it negative to discuss Phillips expected value to the team or the expected return that could be yielded in a potential trade?

by rojosoto on Sep 21, 2006 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why trade Phillips

He is one of the few bright spots for the Reds, the errors that I seen him make this year have been hustle errors. Normally errors that he makes a normal second baseman can't get to. Why not trade Griffey before he has no trade value at all

by redsfan615 on Sep 21, 2006 5:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

its usually a bad idea to sell low

last year was the perfect time to trade Jr, coming off comeback POY honors, playing most of the season, batting .300, generally looking like a stud again. it was the perfect time to trade him. Now we've pretty much gotta stick with him, because he has underperformed and we're not going to get a good value out of him. Anyway, if he can keep healthy (yeah i know) and show the kind of patience he did in august, he's a great corner outfielder.

Phillips is ripe, as Greg pointed out. As much as I like him, I think this is the perfect chance to parlay him into some more established talent. Or maybe some really promising prospects. Anyway, his stock is probably higher than it's worth, and I agree that Wayne should at least be considering it.

Fynal Cut... Get skewered

by boobs on Sep 21, 2006 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Feel free to edit...

I made a small addition to your wiki.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Sep 21, 2006 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that is amazing

i do look strikingly similar to that as well.

Fynal Cut... Get skewered

by boobs on Sep 21, 2006 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

rasputin?

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Sep 21, 2006 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ding Ding Ding!!

That's the picture that PH is going to randomly place everywhere so as to cause mass confusion.

"No, no, no. It's "step, pivot, step, pause." Are you TRYING to piss off the volcano god?" - Peter Griffin

by Ash on Sep 21, 2006 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shh! You Two!

This is a black ops operation. Need to know.

And what are you doing using your real names over a non-coded frequency?

"Don't mind me....just managing with the old ticker, that's all"

by Jerry Narron on Sep 21, 2006 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

it's strange

how rasputin was known as a "ladies man." gross.

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Sep 21, 2006 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any resemblance...

To real persons, whether living or dead, is purely coincidental.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Sep 21, 2006 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

[no subject]

óæàëüòå åãî è âû óìð¸òe!

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Sep 21, 2006 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

shoot.

I guess cyrillic does not work here. Wonder why, since this is RED Reporter, after all.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Sep 21, 2006 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

first impressions

People do tend to selectively read information to support their initial impressions. I can't remember the psych 101 term for it right now, so I'll just call it the Joe Randa Effect.

by Red Menace on Sep 21, 2006 5:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As opposed to the Ryan Franklin effect...

Which causes a sudden and irresistible urge to puke.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Sep 21, 2006 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

guffaw

I don't trust boobs.

by sukr on Sep 21, 2006 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What we really need

is Michael to tell us how good Phillips is, because he can evaluate talent just by seeing guys play. We should pay to get him to some ballgames, have him watch Phillips and some other 2B around the league, and then when he gets back we'll just ask him who has the most guts, and who is a gamer, and who has that presence.

Your "stats" are great, but they don't measure those intangibles that only guys like michael can recognize.

Fynal Cut... Get skewered

by boobs on Sep 21, 2006 6:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I say keep him.

Only because Krivs would trade him and a few PTBNLs to get Dempster back.

I don't trust boobs.

by sukr on Sep 21, 2006 7:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

For some insane reason

I foresee our 2007 Opening Day roster having 25 middle relievers on it, with 20 of them will be lefties...

"No, no, no. It's "step, pivot, step, pause." Are you TRYING to piss off the volcano god?" - Peter Griffin

by Ash on Sep 21, 2006 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

aargh

...with 20 of them being lefties...

"No, no, no. It's "step, pivot, step, pause." Are you TRYING to piss off the volcano god?" - Peter Griffin

by Ash on Sep 21, 2006 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can't be.

Not enough room for the five catchers.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Sep 21, 2006 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Silly me!

Five catchers, 18 middle relievers (17 lefties), and two platoon-first basemen.

And we're set!

"No, no, no. It's "step, pivot, step, pause." Are you TRYING to piss off the volcano god?" - Peter Griffin

by Ash on Sep 21, 2006 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

remember when we had 7 2B?

seems like long ago...

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Sep 22, 2006 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

was that back when we were trying to solve

the outfield log-jam? Man, that does seem like a long time ago...

"No, no, no. It's "step, pivot, step, pause." Are you TRYING to piss off the volcano god?" - Peter Griffin

by Ash on Sep 22, 2006 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

when we had four starting outfielders instead of one?

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Sep 22, 2006 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Phillips

Here's the deal (so to speak)...

Trading Phillips now might be "trading high". However, as opposed to Jr:

He's really cheap (he won't even be arb-eligible for 2 more years).
He's still young (he's only 25).
He's pretty good for his position (Win Shares as calculated by these guys really likes him.)

IF the Reds are a rebuilding team (which I hope they finally realize), he's probably someone you want to keep, at least until he gets more expensive.

I think this is the perfect chance to parlay him into some more established talent.

"Established talent" is expensive; further, you don't rebuild with "established talent" as they may not be any good by the time the rest of the team is.

by sidnancy on Sep 21, 2006 8:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Farm system

Has a 1B, a RF/CF, and a few pitchers. There might be a middle infielder, or two but they are in the low minors.

Votto is 07/08. Bruce is 08/09. Stubbs is not projectable. Janish needs another season of data to get a modicum of projectability. Ditto Cuerto/Lecure. Homer is as close to a can't miss as I've seen. I think his floor is Kris Benson, assuming he remains healthy.

Dunn and BP will be 28ish when the cavalry arrives. EE will still be 25ish. That leaves C and SS as question marks. OF's are the easiest piece to fill on the ML level.

I'd eager Kriv goes for power arms and C next year in the draft. I'm still cheesed at Stubbs over Lincecum. I'd like to have more confidence in Kriv's ability to draft talent. Arroyo, BP and Ross were more than luck , however. So was El Guapo. I'm going to remain bullish on Bray and Magi, pending '07 results.

But ya gotta sign Harangatang to a 4yr/40 mil contract NOW.

Confucious say: "Baseball wrong - man with four balls cannot walk."

by ohiobobcat on Sep 21, 2006 10:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs