ok Redreporters.... Dunn revisited...

by MichaelRed on Aug 31, 2006 10:38 PM EDT Comment 75 comments

After Dunn's July, folks in this forum and others were all George Grande giddy about Dunn and his new lighter bat, his shorter swing, his new approach (??)....etc..etc....

Me and a few other cranky strikeout haters went on record that we were not witnessing a Dunn rebirth. Instead we maintained that we were only witnessing a Dunn hot streak which we have seen plenty of times before (unfortunately most always followed by a Dunn cold streak of at least equal duration and intensity).

By the numbers.... how did Dunn follow up his hot July? In August.....

-Dunn hit a lofty .188 with 39 Ks in 101 ABs (39% K rate)
-His OBP was a weak .284 and SLG a weak .416

The past 4 months Dunn has hit
May .212
June .221
July .354
Aug .188 (could have been .158 if not for 3 hits off soft tossing hendrickson the other night)

Some of you are the same folks who say Dunn is no Kingman or Deer, based on the last 4 months.... if not Kingman/Deer than who?

So please, to quote JD in a recent one of his "diaries" ... "admitting you have a problem is the first step"... who is ready to come clean? Who is ready to come to the other side?

This is a player Reds are slated to pay 10+ million to next year - roughly one sixth of their entire payroll. This is a player who has NOT improved one iota in any part of his game in 6 years. His struggles now are the exact same as his first year in the bigs. Are any of you still prepared to take the position that Adam Dunn is a good fit for the Cincinnati Reds going forward?

Reds have Hopper, Denorfia, soon Bruce (I'll leave out Hollandsworth) and probably others slightly lower profile or easily obtainable all either waiting in the wings or easily available as substitutes. Isn't pitching still priority #1? Wouldn't 10 million buy a little extra pitching?

Who is ready to go on record? Who is ready to admit Dunn just isn't developing? Who is ready to join me in advocating that Dunn be traded ASAP?

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Dunn

There is so much to attack in this it's hard to decide where to start. So I'll do what I can.

Your comment about how Dunn's batting avg would have been lower if not for some soft hit balls. What is this? Babe Ruth would have less homers if some outfielder somewhere would have jumped and caught the ball. Pete Rose might have had less hits if he played in the AL against Brooks Robinson. On and on and on. These comments scream that you don't know what you're talking about. Baseball is a game where balls fall in, balls drop, the wind carries the ball out, the wind blows the ball in, he faced Joe Mays too many times, he faced Randy Johnson too much, etc, etc. You get the point.
Dave Kingman and Rob Deer? Are you serious? Dave Kingman played 16 seasons, how many times did he hit 40 HRs? Once. In 5 years how many times has done hit 40, twice, this is his 6th season he'll have 3 40 HR years barring injury. How many times did Dave Kingman have an OBP over 330? TWICE. That's horrible, that is seriously terrible. Dunn's lowest OBP was .354 and that was a serious low, it's been closer to .380 every year. (For reference Rob Deer never had 40 homers and only had 0BP over .330 twice in seasons w/ more than 50 ABs Also Dunn is his 6 seasons of play has nearly as many HRs as Deer in his 11 seasons).
If you seriously think that Norris Hopper or Chris Denorfia are serious substitutes for Dunn, you are either dreaming or on something. Neither of those guys has proven anything in the major leagues and at their age none are considered top prospects either. Bruce is a huge question mark but making assumptions about someone just out of high school is a crap shoot, at very best.
Just for a reference point, baseball-reference, using stat methods I'll probably never fully understand, but I assume is more sophisticated than what I could come up, and certainly more sophisticated than you grabbing two names out of thin air say Dunn best compares to through age 25: Darryl Strawberry, Reggie Jackson, Jose Canseco, and the top 10 list rounds out w/ Harmon Killebrew, not a horrible list. BTW, in all their comparisons Deer and Kingman never come up.
What is to be said of having a legitimate 40+ HR hitter in your lineup that gets on base 38% of the time (very comparable to what Ichiro gets on base, some years Dunn actually gets on base more frequently than Ichiro). Seriously, who could the Reds substitute him for that would hit 40 HRs and get on base at a .380 clip? How much would this player cost if they could get him? Manny Ramirez hits a similar amount of HRs than Dunn, has a career OBP of .400, fields poorly, and makes 22 million dollars.

How many guys could the Reds acquire who has a legitimate shot at hitting a home run at any given time? Do you think Norris Hopper is going to hit many game ending grand slams? Do you think Chris Denorfia will ever, at any point in his career have a .380 OBP? Opposing teams fear Dunn, are they really scared of anyone else in the lineup?

6) You are a strikeout hater. Good for you. I'm an out hater. Is hitting a pop up in the infield better than a strikeout? Would it make you feel better if Denorfia played left field everyday, hit .280 w/ a .320 OBP and hit 10 homers? He might not get on base nearly as much as Dunn, but you'd be spared of seeing those strike outs, and walks, and 40 or more 400 feet HRs.

For the record, I think it's so ridiculous that so many Reds fans hate Dunn so much. Yeah, he sucks at fielding, we all know that very well. How many 40 HR hitter field great? Dunn is one of the best players in the game, that's not my opinion, that's fact, look at the homers, look at the walks, look at the OBP. There aren't many guys in Dunn's class and there is no one the Reds could replace him w/ that would be half as good as him.

7) The payroll issue, if the Reds go cheap in the offseason it isn't because of Dunn. Castellini promised championship caliber baseball, which is going to require championship caliber payroll, at least $90 M. You aren't going to win many pennants when you move your most productive, most powerful hitters to give a full time job to Norris Hopper.

So, for the record, I've stepped and said that trading Dunn would be sheer idiocy. Perhaps you could step up and give me a couple of players who you think would be better options than Dunn, hypothetically speaking if the Reds could trade Dunn for any outfielder in the game who would be it? Who is better? And when you tell me, elaborate on how much is he getting paid, since Dunn and his 40+ HRs, and 100+ walks, and .380 OBP is getting so overpaid, and let me know how this player stacks up moneywise to him as well. And don't give a list of prospects who may never play the game, or who are Dunn's age (ala Denorfia and Hopper) and who could only pray that their entire career is as good as the 6 years Dunn has produced here. I would just like to know what guy the Dunn haters want so badly. Because the fact is, almost every player has his faults, guys like Willie Mays don't come around very often, and when teams get a guy w/ Dunn's talent, if they're smart they keep him.

by JCH888 on Aug 31, 2006 11:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I agree.

Although I think its often important to make contact, especially for the purposes of moving runners over and/or scoring via sacrifice flies (recall Dunn's notorious drought), Dunn would be near-impossible to replace. However, it is important to keep in mind that he will never a player of the caliber of his outfield neighbor; Junior is a once-in-a-generation (nay, All-Century) phenomenon.

I used to argue with a roommate who whined incessantly about Dunn's lack of sac flies and poor performance in clutch situations, such as with RISP. I would argue that Dunn never hits sac flies because his flies actually go over the wall. Then, I pilloried him via telephone after Dunn's 2-out walk-off grand slam off Wickman, which is the most clutch hit possible, given the situation.

I don't trust books; they're all fact, no heart.

by Gapper on Sep 1, 2006 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

There are plenty of guys who would be a much better fit for LF for this team than Dunn (yes, including giving Hopper and Denorfia full opportunity to see what they have).

Did you know that B. Phillips, Ross, Hatteberg etc... were all out there and available this past year? Kriv can handle the specifics, I'm just hoping he doesn't overlook this fundamental problem that still exists (Dunn).

Again, a straight comparison of eras with HRs or BBs for that matter for power hitters is ridiculous. For power guys, 40 homers today is 30 homers 30 years ago... furthermore, power hitters in Kingman's era didn't look to take walks. They took them with a sigh..... Dunn takes them with a skip and a hop....

If taking 50 more walks a year would have earned them a 40% higher pay check a year no doubt Kingman et al would have taken a few more BBs......

Previous eras cared about OBP for guys who could run yes... (Rickey Henderson, Lopes, Morgan etc...) but rbi/power guys were concerned more about their power and BA (as they should be). If you haven't noticed, Dunn on first base doesn't put the fear of death into the opposition.....it is only in recent decades that OBP even for power guys has taken on new emphasis (over emphasis in the view of this reporter)...if you can run, yes then get on base anyway you can !!! If you're going to be a slug on the basepaths then take your hacks and raise the BA a bit even if it costs you some OBP.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like Dunn...

I was going to say I would trade him for Beltran, but actually, probably not. Dunn is 25 going on 26 and could still get better, while Beltran is 29 and, unless he is Barry Bonds, he is not going to get much better, if at all.

I was also going to say I might trade him for Berkman, who is 29-30 also, but he is four-five years older than Dunn and will also not get any better. The only advantage to trading him for Berkman would be to remove Berkman from the Reds' schedule for 16 games a year, which would be nice.

I would probably trade him for Miguel Cabrera, since Cabrera is already a stud (.310-30-110 annually) and is only 23.

I would also not trade him for Soriano (who is probably the defensive equal of Dunn) and is nearly 30 himself (surprisingly--I thought he was younger). It would not assuage Michael very much either, since it would mean just as many (or perhaps even more) homeruns and still a ton of strikeouts, although he might be made happier because those annoying walks and "soft" OBP would no longer be a problem, and the Rob Deer/Dave Kingman comparisons would be much easier for him with Soriano, who actually has driven himself in (43 HR) more than other people (84 RBI). He also might be able to hit leadoff, since he has such great speed and a fat .326 career OBP (cf., Womack, Tony).

The other outfielders who would give the Reds production that is even close to Dunn's are either pushing 30 or on the wrong side of 30.

Something to note is that Dunn's overall production may be undervalued by the market because of his low batting average. The Reds may actually be getting a bargain at $10 million.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Sep 1, 2006 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On the other hand

Beltran is hitting out of his mind this year and makes $12 mill next year and $18.5 per the next 4 years. That being said, he's a Gold Glove caliber CF who hits and runs pretty well; he's worth the extra money over Dunn (as long as he stays healthy).

Berkman makes $14.5 per through 2010. He's also mainly a 1B these days.

I'd also love to have Cabrera, but he's a 3B.

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Anyone else wonder how Michael manages to breathe?

by Geki on Sep 1, 2006 12:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Now you stop picking on Michael.

Or I will beat up the voice inside your head.

The only Homer I like is Homer Bailey.

by Mini Michael on Sep 1, 2006 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn

40 home runs,100 walks,100runs scored and 100 rbi's in the history of the franchise only Joe Morgan had done that before Adam Dunn. This will the 3rd straight year he has done it. That should make a very loud statement about the kind of player he is. Why complain about all the bad when the good is so much more.

by russack on Sep 1, 2006 8:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Morgan 40 Homeruns?

sorry to call you out, but when did that happen? He never even hit 30 in a season

by indy on Sep 1, 2006 8:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Dunn is hitting 40 homeruns in an era where 40 is like 25 or 30 in previous eras.....

already this year, 19 players in the majors have 30+ homers.....

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes. Go to it, Michael!

You tell 'em like it is.

Mention Rob Deer again.

The only Homer I like is Homer Bailey.

by Mini Michael on Sep 1, 2006 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Not pointing out and giving proper weight to the "bad" would be myopic.

I have given this example before but it is perfectly illustrative. Dunn is like a running back who gets you 100 yards/game. If you stop and look no further than you would say get him on my team.

HOWEVER, if you look deeper you find out that he can't pick up the blitz and protect QB, he can't catch balls out of the backfield, he fumbles 10+ times a year and he needs the ball 25+ times a game to get his 100 yards. He's not worth it !!!!!

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 9:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Running back

What a terrible example.

While your RB does one thing well, Dunn does 2 better than almost every player in the majors: Hit for power and get on base. Getting on base is the single most important thing a hitter can do - there are only 27 outs in a game; once those are used up, you lose. He gets on base more than Ichiro!, poster boy for "good hitting". At the end of the season, he'll be listed in the top 25 (about 20-22) in active players in OBP.

And when he hits the ball, it goes a long way, which is the second most important thing a hitter can do. He'll be in the top 20 in career SLG for active players by the time the season is over.

Put them together, and he's about #20 on the active list for OPS+ (OBP+SLG, adjusted for park and league). He was ahead of David Ortiz going into this year in OPS+, for instance.

Finally, he's young and durable. He regularly plays 160+ games, and he's only 26 (which means he's likely to get better). For reference, only Pujols is both ahead of Dunn in OPS+ and younger than 30.

So your runner is merely durable (25+ carries/game). Dunn gets on base, hits for power, stays healthy, and has some speed. And, like I said, is likely to get better.

Get over strikeouts. Mickey Mantle, who I hear was a pretty good hitter, struck out a ton. Same with Mike Schmidt. And Rickey Henderson. And Frank Robinson. And Willie Mays. In fact, of the top 40 in career strikeouts, 13 are in the Hall of fame, and 7 more are considered at least likely to make it.

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

Mantle was also ~.300 hitter and a great fielder before he broke his knees. Schmidt was a gold glove fielder, fast on the bases and hit ~.270.

Dunn is "young" but he is aging fast regarding physical attributes. Speed is gone from game. And as an oversized player the 160 game grind has been and continues to take its toll on his body.....

When all is said and done (no pun intended) his 195 K year 2004 may end up being his best year. He still had the legs at that point to leg out 34 doubles, he hit .265+ and the 46 HRs. Dunn has already begun the downward slide on productivity............

Have you noticed his doubles numbers this year? (21)... projecting to ~25 doubles this year..

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow.

Dunn is "young" but he is aging fast regarding physical attributes.

Evidence?

Speed is gone from game....Have you noticed his doubles numbers this year? (21)... projecting to ~25 doubles this year

Of course, the 35 doubles last year mean nothing, I guess; and 3/4 of a season makes a trend.

Wow. Just wow.

By your reasoning, the Cards should get rid of Pujols. Look at that "downward slide in productivity" since '03!

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Evidence!?

We are the Federales.

You know, the mounted police.

Evidence!? We ain't got no evidence. We don't need no evidence! We don't have to show you any steenking evidence!!

The only Homer I like is Homer Bailey.

by Mini Michael on Sep 1, 2006 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Attaboy...

Four yards per rush is actually not bad for a running back, but who cares? It's about Adam Dunn, and you hate him!

The only Homer I like is Homer Bailey.

by Mini Michael on Sep 1, 2006 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn in the Lineup

Protects Griffey and Edwin. They see much better pitches with Dunn's Presence. Take Dunn out and we have one, count them one power left handed bat. I need to get me some of what Michael is smoking, must be some good stuff.

by MixFMKyle on Sep 1, 2006 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re

some folks (not saying you) are so head over heels in man love with Dunn that they have lost their objectivity.....

look again at this summer's numbers just BA (nice and simple), remember this is a LEFT FIELDER (arguably the worst fielding left fielder in league)....

Here is what Dunn has put up the last 4 months..
May .212
June .221
July .354
Aug .188

Stat "benchmarks" (40/100/100) get respect but historically/typically they presume a player maintains close to par levels in other areas of game. Presumably, too many areas with sub-par performance wouldn't allow a player adequate playing time to put up benchmark numbers. Dunn breaks mold with that though because Reds HAVE given him PT despite a ~.215 lifetime BA with RISP, despite biggest K guy in game the past 6 years, despite arguably worst fielding outfielder in game, despite sub-par BA etc..etc.........

Reds as a team are falling on the grenade so Dunn can get his 40/100/100.... it has to stop.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA RISP

Reds HAVE given him PT despite a ~.215 lifetime BA with RISP

Which is true, only because he's never given anything to hit - his OBP over the last 3 years with RISP is .431. Which is because they'd rather walk him than let him hit, since his SLG in those situations is .507.

In fact, with RISP, Dunn walks in 26% of PA (over the past 3 years); in other situations, he walks HALF as much. When you aren't given anything to hit, it's tough to hit anything.

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow

i don't even want to address most of this derangement. just wanted to add another thing - it sure is nice to count on a guy who is going to play 160 games and not have to sit out with a hang nail or something.

BA should be the last thing people look at for productivity. get out the yellow pages and look for the clue store near you.

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Sep 1, 2006 10:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

Dunn is a slug (er.. "slugger") I'd look at BA and power numbers (slg) before I'd care the least about his OBP............

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great stuff!

And the little voice inside his head is big and slow too.

The only Homer I like is Homer Bailey.

by Mini Michael on Sep 1, 2006 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Reds have so many serious issues....

But Dunn is not one of them.
Now Larue is another question.....and Clayton....et al.

"Baseball is dull only to dull minds." Red Barber

by Sloppygolf on Sep 1, 2006 11:00 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

On The Year

Dunn's average is right around the .250 Mark. Thats one hit per 4 ABs. He hits a bunchof homers and doubles, and usually always hits the ball hard. Plus all the walks really jump starts the bottom of the order. In My opinion, it seems like The offense generated this year from our 5-6-7-8 guys in the lineup have been better than the 1-2-3-4 all year. And a lot of that starts with Dunn getting on base.

by MixFMKyle on Sep 1, 2006 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Michael...

It's time to use the random diary generator. Post another diary, and you're guaranteed another 30 comments.

The only Homer I like is Homer Bailey.

by Mini Michael on Sep 1, 2006 11:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Some people

are blinded by their hatred of Dunn so much they lose objecivity.

Yeah you Michael.

by DisplacedFan on Sep 1, 2006 11:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

Noone has been able to refute the fact whatever measure you use Dunn was pretty much lousy (particularly for a LEFT FIELDER) in 3 of the last 4 months. He is being paid solely for offense and he has only showed up 2 months this year !!

Furthermore, can anyone make case that Dunn has improved any element of his game a substancive amount in 6 years? Nothing. No improvement.

For 6 years people have been talking about his youth and potential but no improvement. He IS most definitely getting HEAVIER, SLOWER, less agile though.

His off the field life will start to get more complicated as he gets into his late 20's, perhaps starts family, now with his new house ...etc.... with his physical stature he has long sinced peaked fitness-wise - he is on downslope with fitness. I see no reason to believe his baseball productivity will do anything but decrease..............

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 11:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

And the little voice...

I know the little voice he talks to inside his head. He's telling Adam to eat more pizza, drink more beer and watch "The View."

The only Homer I like is Homer Bailey.

by Mini Michael on Sep 1, 2006 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Speaking of which...

I'm getting hungry.

I need some more Melba Toast® and prune juice.

The only Homer I like is Homer Bailey.

by Mini Michael on Sep 1, 2006 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll bite

Dunn was pretty much lousy (particularly for a LEFT FIELDER) in 3 of the last 4 months.

The season is 5 months old. Conveniently, you dismiss April (and his 1.047 OPS).
May: Curiosly, his lowest K month. But he also slugged .535.
June: .904 OPS. His .368 OBP and .537 SLG were both pretty decent.
July: Thankfully, I don't have to defend it even to you.
August: Slumped pretty badly. Hey, it happens.

As for this statement: particularly for a LEFT FIELDER, Dunn is currently 8th among LF with more than 300 PA in the majors:

Manny makes $19 mil/yr, and is god-awful (worse than Dunn) defensively.
Bonds makes $19 mil/yr, and is as bad as Manny.
Soriano makes $10 mil, and is due a big raise.
Holliday is not yet arb eligible.
Bay signed a contract buying out his arb years.
Burrell will make $27 mill over the next 2 seasons.
Either is a rookie.

So of 25 LF in the majors, only 7 with more than 300 PA have hit better than Dunn this year: one's a rookie, so who knows how good he is (and has 200 fewer PA than Dunn); Burrell has 100 fewer PA; Bonds has almost 2oo fewer PA. Three (Manny, Bonds, Burrell) make vastly more money; one is due FA money (Soriano). Only Either is younger. Holliday is having his 1st good year, but is the same age.

Among those who hit worse are guys like Carlos Lee (whom everyone was trying desperately to get), Carl Crawford, Luis Gonzalez, Brad Wilkerson, Garret Anderson, and Cliff Floyd.

Finally,
Furthermore, can anyone make case that Dunn has improved any element of his game a substancive amount in 6 years? Nothing. No improvement.

Except that while his BA (which you so love) is the same as his first full year, he hits for much more power.

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ESPN.com stats

Yes. Go to ESPN.com - the MLB page has career stats for each player. Compare Dunn's numbers from 2004-2006 to what he did in 2002-2003. It is pretty clear to me that he has substantially improved over what he did his first 2 full seasons.

Re: heavier/slower - he's not expected to steal a ton of bases each year, but when he does steal he's successful. 15 of 18 the past three seasons (including 5-for-5) doesn't seem particularly slow to me.

by rojosoto on Sep 1, 2006 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

could have been .158 if not for 3 hits

"could have been .158 if not for 3 hits off soft tossing hendrickson the other night"

Could have been over 200 if not for a couple of screaming line drives hit right at a fielder. I'm pretty sure baseball counts all the hits a player collects, regardless of the pitcher who surrenders them.

by rojosoto on Sep 1, 2006 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

could have been 0 homers

if he hadn't hit 38 so far

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Sep 1, 2006 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Posting images in Comments

Anyone know how to do it?

by bobestes on Sep 1, 2006 2:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

just put

img src="http://imagelocation"

put the greater and equal signs around both (if i do it, this will think i'm typing html)

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Sep 1, 2006 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's greater and less than signs

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Sep 1, 2006 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

As in

'Dunn is greater than you and less than no one.'

I don't trust books; they're all fact, no heart.

by Gapper on Sep 1, 2006 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re: GredD on "improvement"

his HR to AB pct by year...
    hr    ab/hr
2001    19    12.84210526
2002    26    20.57692308
2003    27    14.11111111
2004    46    12.34782609
2005    40    13.575
2006    38    12.47368421
started out at 13 in 2001 and still the same (2002 looks like blip year)...

his 2b to AB pct by year....
    2b    ab/2b
2001    18    13.55555556
2002    28    19.10714286
2003    12    31.75
2004    34    16.70588235
2005    35    15.51428571
2006    21    22.57142857
certainly NOT getting better..(2003 looks like blip year but trending to the bad)...

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

we know fielding hasn't gotten any better...strikeouts certainly no better...walks about the same, BA same or worse..., we know he is getting slower - never to steal double digits again....

Dunn is not getting "better" with passing years. He has peaked and now he is on the downslide.....

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"never to steal double digits again"

You have absolutely no way of knowing that.

"Way to go Sparks, you broke the monitor and you're dead. Happy?" - Hazel "Hank" Murphy

by Ash on Sep 1, 2006 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dunn

So Dunn's career is headed downhill fast, but a guy like Denorfia (about 7 months younger than Dunn) and Hopper (a few months old than Dunn) are better options? Guys that have lingered in the minors while Dunn has hit 200 career HRs are better options?

You have yet to give me the names of any major leaguers who would prefer to Dunn, taking in account salary, which you are very concerned about. If Dunn is so horrible as you would contend it should be easy for you to come up w/ a list of players that are substantially better than him. If Denorfia and Hopper were so good they would make the Reds better if they were playing everyday over Dunn why hasn't 1 of the other 29 teams recognized this fact and traded for them?

Again, I will await your list of major league outfielders who are by far superior to Dunn.

by JCH888 on Sep 1, 2006 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

It's certainly the case that BOTH Denorfia and Hopper could be busts at major league level.

However, Denorfia for sure wouldn't be a bust out of lack of effort, preparation, focus/concentration... I don't know the story on Hopper.

And I for one would rather pay 300,000/year to watch Denorfia get full opportunity to see if he can make transition and spend the extra 10 million saved from Dunn on pitching.

If Denorfia fell flat on face (he has only had ~80 ABs at mlb level to date), you certainly have hopper, Wise, etc.. you also could certainly pick up other prospect-type outfielders from other organizations without giving up much. Again, look at how Krivsky found Phillips, Hatt and Ross this year....guys are out there.

You don't have to settle for Dunn.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Denorfia

Has never proven he can hit major league pitching; neither has Hopper. Let alone at a pace that Dunn can.

And how do you know Dunn doesn't try, prepare or focus? Or that Denorfia does? Do you have inside information? Do you think Dunn hits all of those HRs, and walks so much, by sheer luck?

Other specific people you mention:

Wise has shown time and again, with 4 different organizations (5, if you count his 2 stints with Cinci) he isn't a ML player.
Phillips will never hit like Dunn.
Hatteberg was picked up off the scrap heap and, as a 37 year old, is having a career year. Yea, I'd count on that happening again. Oh, and his best year (this) isn't nearly the year Dunn (his supposed terrible year) is having.
Ross is having a nice year, no doubt. But he's a catcher, so he's played 1/2 of the games of Dunn, and he'll wear out pretty quickly. And there is nothing, absolutely nothing, in his history that says he'll ever do it again.

And I'd never "settle" for Dunn. I consider myself lucky to root for the team he plays for.

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"settle for Dunn"

That's hilarious. I bet there are several teams out there that would willingly "settle for Dunn" no matter what you might think about him.

I hate to admit it, but Hattie is having a career year in terms of his numbers, and we can only hope that he can duplicate his success in 2007. Same with Ross. Brandon Phillips was an interesting pickup, I think. It seems like the organization had just given up on him, and Krivsky got lucky in being able to pick him up. That being said, more eyes are going to be on Kriv this offseason which might make it more difficult for him to pick up good players for nothing.

"If Denorfia fell flat on his face..." - I hate to say it, but I think he did. I'm not saying his playing time after the trade is indicative of how he will play in the majors, but he most definitely lost his job to Ryan Freel. Norris Hopper? Dewayne Wise? ...I'll "settle for" Dunn, thank you.

"Way to go Sparks, you broke the monitor and you're dead. Happy?" - Hazel "Hank" Murphy

by Ash on Sep 1, 2006 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wise

Do you mean to say you prefer DeWayne Wise to Adam Dunn? The same guy who is older than Dunn and never hit over .228?

The Reds could certainly put someone in left field who wasn't Dunn, but that doesn't mean that they wouldn't be horrible. This team is so full of holes, Griffey has been bad in CF, playing Freel and Aurillia everyday has reduced the bench to guys like Hollandsworth. The Reds are relying heavily on the bat of David Ross. LaRue and Valentin are terrible, the bullpen has been so bad we can't wait for the return of an ancient closer who throws in the high 80's w/ tendonitis. The starting rotation has been little more than Harang w/ prayers that Lohse and Arroyo will catch fire.

All of these holes and your #1 concern is one of the biggest power hitters in the game? The Reds need to build around Dunn, Harang, Bray and Encarnacion as the foundation to a winning team in the future.

by JCH888 on Sep 1, 2006 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remember

They have to be available, as in free agent after this year.

Jason Bay is not available. Neither is Matt Holliday.

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you

by bobestes on Sep 1, 2006 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Improvement

Given that '01 was less than 1/2 of a season for Dunn, I see a pretty clear improvement in HR rate from '02-'06, with only a slight dip in 2B rate.

As his SLG has gone from .454 in 02 to .532 this year, I'd say he's improved dramatically.

And this statement:
certainly NOT getting better..(2003 looks like blip year but trending to the bad)...
why exclude the year that disproves your theory, but not this one, as the "blip"? Especially as he missed significant time to injury in '03?

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just to recap

My favorite quotes from Michael in this thread:
The best ones are bold.

Dunn is no Kingman or Deer, based on the last 4 months
Dunn is like a running back who gets you 100 yards/game.
Dunn is "young" but he is aging fast regarding physical attributes.
Reds as a team are falling on the grenade so Dunn can get his 40/100/100
Dunn is a slug (er.. "slugger") I'd look at BA and power numbers (slg) before I'd care the least about his OBP
he has long sinced peaked fitness-wise
could have been .158 if not for 3 hits off soft tossing hendrickson the other night
we know he is getting slower - never to steal double digits again

You don't have to settle for Dunn.

Wow. I think you made my head implode, man.

"Way to go Sparks, you broke the monitor and you're dead. Happy?" - Hazel "Hank" Murphy

by Ash on Sep 1, 2006 4:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gettin' rowdy in here!

Don't you think Michael knew what he was getting himself into with this thread. Knowing full well we're all in a great mood with 7 days of positive energy building within, he took up the cross off pulling it all out. We owe him thanks, really.

by sukr on Sep 1, 2006 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dear Michael,

Thanks douche!

by boobs on Sep 1, 2006 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Missed one

we know he is getting slower - never to steal double digits again

Which he's done...exactly once in his career. Yea, I'd say it's a pretty safe bet he'll never do it again.

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Strikeouts Bad

Point #542435:

While Dunn has struck out at a pretty impressive clip, and (according to Micheal, at various points in this thread) "we know he is getting slower", he exhibits a "lack of effort" (as opposed to Denorfia), "He IS most definitely getting HEAVIER, SLOWER, less agile though", Dunn has grounded into 36 double plays in his career.

Yup. The fat, lazy, good for nothing GIDP once every 93 PA.

In other words, he hits into HALF of the DPs that the average player does.

For comparison, how many of those 25 LF with more than 300 PA have fewer? Three: Floyd, Soriano, and Thames. In fact, how many hitters at any position have as many PA as Dunn, and fewer GIDP? Seven.

by sidnancy on Sep 1, 2006 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

yes, one thing you can say about having a dead pull, uppercut, strikeout swing is that you won't hit into too many double plays.

Dave Kingman never grounded into more than 13 double plays in his first 6 years. And by the way Dave Kingman was top 25 in MVP voting 3 times in first 6 years of his career. I'd take Kingman over Dunn every day of the week.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, Why havent we traded

Dunn for Dave Kingman yet? That's a great idea.

I have a better idea: Let's trade him for Mickey Mantle! His biggest salary was $100,000 a year... He'd be much cheaper than Dunn!! Let's do a comparison:

Highest yearly salary dollars per career home run:
Mantle -- 200
Dunn - 50,000

Clearly Dunn is way overpriced. We could trade him for Mantle, but maybe we could go back in history to find someone who's more efficient than Mantle AND Kingman...

Enough with the home runs and strikeouts! Let's get back to gritty players, with lots of heart and veteran presence! I'll take a guy like Royce Clayton, who really KNOWS the game of baseball and doesn't pay attention to insignificant things like "stats." Let's start by signing Narron, Clayton and LaRue, the only real gamers we have, to long-term contracts and build around them.

God, Dunn is so selfish, with his "home runs," or "the most efficient method of scoring in baseball." And don't tell me about his .379 OBP. We don't need our slugger getting on base just to clog up the bases. I don't care if he actually works counts and sees the baseball better than anyone on the team, despite his mammoth frame and, therefore, strike zone, leading to a high number of strikeouts. Uppercut farfellflutter, selfish dragging us behind so he can get his rakjdkjf, these guys dont play like they did in my day, kdgjkidj!!! Give me Dave Kingman any day of the week and three times on Sunday!!! RAhH!!!!

by boobs on Sep 1, 2006 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And one more thing...

If you take away all the hits he's ever had, Dunn is batting .000!!! With 0 home runs!! That's terrible!!!

by boobs on Sep 1, 2006 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I knew it....

Does anyone remember the profanity diary? I do. Here is a little quote from JD in his post about banning NeilyNG/BShakey.

"Heck, remember Michael? Guy never stressed me out half as much as NeilyNG does."

I guess Michael took that as a challenge.

by FritzMW on Sep 1, 2006 6:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I bet

Neil would have won at least 3 Most Valuable Heckler awards in his first 6 seasons, and wouldn't have had nearly as many grammatical errors.

by boobs on Sep 1, 2006 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

ah yes... a predictable play from a strikeout loving dunn lover, the "ban" card....

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 7:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

do you take argument notes

from Bill O'Reilly? Dodging points that might actually weaken your argument and attacking non sequiturs to avoid looking studid?

Ahh! All you stupid Dunn lovers ALWAYS say that people who have different opinions should be banned! You hate freedom!

For the record...
No one is banning you, because no one can do that but JD.
You're not using the right data (MVPs, All Star games and Gold Gloves? Come on.), and when you do use actual data, you skew it so that it fits your argument. Yes, Dunn is struggling right now. It happens to every major leaguer at some point. That's not a reason to give up on him. Despite his struggles, he is third on the team in OBP, which is much more important than you realize. Obviously he's first in home runs, but you don't seem to value those silly dongs. He's 2nd in SLG, which is an imperfect stat, second in VORP, second in EqA (an adjusted batting stat that very acurately relates how good a hitter is) and second among hitters in WARP3. He is having a down year (which you would call a "blip" if you were arguing against yourself) yet he's still the best overall hitter on the team. He is consistently one of the most underrated hitters in the league, because of people like you who are too narrowminded to look past his high strikeout rate to see a guy who succeeds despite having an enormous strikezone and is not only the best hitter on the team, but also my favorite and the favorite of a lot of Reds fans.

by boobs on Sep 1, 2006 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The "ban" card....

I wasn't trying to pull out the ban card, I was trying to point that you even annoy JD enough that he would take the time to point out how annoying you are. I am not a Dunn lover, nor am I a Dunn lover. If this team was great enough that Dunn was a problem worth whining about, then I would be happy, but as long as guys like Clayton, McCrappen, Hollandsworthless, Michalak, and the skew of other non-major league talent that has appeared on our roster, then Adam Dunn is not the first guy I want to get rid of.

Another little point for you, if Adam Dunn is soooooo terrible, who is going to take him? He would be in the same boat as LaRue. So who do you suggest we get to take him off of our hands, and what to we get back from them?

by FritzMW on Sep 1, 2006 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

haha

That should say that I am not a Dunn lover, nor am I a Dunn hater, before Michael uses my grammar to attack my baseball argument.

by FritzMW on Sep 1, 2006 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

EdE

How's EdE working out for you Michael? I seem to remember you calling him a "dead pull hitter" who'd never amount to anything.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Sep 1, 2006 9:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

hey, i'm happy for EE that he has done some good things this year. I in fact remember one game where he lined 3 balls to right field. I know at least 2 of them fell for hits......

I still have doubts about him. But I'd be happy to be proved wrong with my first impressions of EE and see him continue to develop...........

speaking of which, EE just drives in a run......

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 1, 2006 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Michael

Please answer the following questions. Just multiple choice. State your answer, no commentary.

1. Which of the following is a better statement regarding the value of an at-bat?:
a) Out < Hit
b) Out < Walk < Single < Double < Triple < Home Run

2. Which group of players will more closely resemble your National League MVP ballot?
a) 1. Freddy Sanchez 2. Miguel Cabrera 3. Matt Holliday 4. Garrett Atkins
b) 1. Albert Pujols 2. Ryan Howard 3. Lance Berkman 4. Carlos Beltran

3. If a player's OBP and SLG both improve with runners on base and with runners in scoring position, while his BA stays relatively the same, what would you say about his situational hitting?
a) This player is a good situational hitter
b) This player is a poor situational hitter

4. What was the biggest reason for the Reds' struggles from 2000-2005
a) The offense scored too few runs to keep the Reds in games.
b) The pitching gave up too many runs to keep the Reds in games.

5. Which is better out of an offensive player?
a) more runs
b) less runs

We'll start with those 5. I may have follow-ups when (if) you provide your answers.

by BLee2525 on Sep 4, 2006 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re:

instead ....

I'll ask you and I'll keep it simple by sticking to the Reds. Did you ever see Barry Larkin play? Pete Rose? Johnny Bench? Joe Morgan? ...... In 1990, Randy Meyers? Rob Dibble? Norm Charlton?

I'll use those extreme examples just for simplicity sake. What do all of those players have in common? The same things all high quality players do. YOU DONT NEED ANY STATS TO TELL HOW GOOD THEY ARE. YOU CAN TELL JUST BY WATCHING THEM PLAY.

Stats are great I like them too. But you don't need to be a stat geek to see who the very good/great players are on a field.

Your boy Dunn IS NOT ONE of them. Your boy Dunn is a big swing who became a millionaire doing something he used to do while he waited for football season to come back around. Good for him. Bad for the Reds.

Your boy is the best example in baseball of why you can't just rely on a few stats for player appraisal. Your boy Dunn is WAY OVERRATED and WAY OVERPAID

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 4, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah that's a really good point

why use "data" or "information" to come to logical conclusions when you can just look at a guy and tell how good he is and much he's worth? Stupid "researchers" with all their "facts"... Listen to Michael, he knows. Why don't you?

by boobs on Sep 4, 2006 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kind of what I expected....

But I guess I'll bite.

"Don't give me stats, I'm going by what I see."

That might be the most ridiculous thing I've ever read. Obviously you can't construct a coherent argument explaining your hatred of Dunn using relevant stats. The fact that you refuse to answer my questions proves that.

When I watch Dunn, I see a fine young hitter who needs lineup protection to succeed. Narron is killing him by putting him in a position that minimizes his strengths (on-base skills, punishing pitches in the zone), and exacerbates his weaknesses (contact rate, going outside the strike zone) by putting him at the end of the run producers.

Every argument you make is laughable. Your "High Value Player" post included several guys who have never won a championship, several "athletic freaks," players with Hall-of-Fame teammates and coaches, and one other guy (George Brett). Now, you tell me that these Reds you named are great despite their stats, as though nobody remembers Pete's 4192, or Larkin's 30/30.

This is ridiculous. I take on your points and put forth arguments to the contrary (on strikeouts, situational hitting, batting average, etc.), but you refuse to acknowledge that anybody else has brought any additional evidence to the table. When we're talking batting average, you say "See, that's what I'm talking about." When we talk OPS, you say "Screw stats. I go by what I see."

Great way to debate. Pretend the other guy didn't talk, then answer whatever question you want. I'm done with you until you answer my questions. They're not that difficult.

by BLee2525 on Sep 5, 2006 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good luck

getting an answer.

by DisplacedFan on Sep 4, 2006 12:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dunn over the last 31 games

Dunn over the last 31 Games as Reds make their run for the play offs... (you know kinda like other situations when it COUNTS..like RISP situations....)

BA .188
OBP .289 (obp one of your favorite "stats")
SLG .420 (SLS another fave stat of many of you)

You don't need to be a saber guy to see that those stats blow. When it was most important - much like an RISP situation for an "rbi guy"... when it was most important, Dunn didn't show up....

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 4, 2006 5:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Again....

He's in a slump. It happens to everybody who has ever played this game.

And why do you refuse to acknowlege that Dunn's OBP and SLG with RISP have been better than his stats in other situations for the last 2 years?

by BLee2525 on Sep 5, 2006 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

BLee..... hey you're in the majority BLee.

You're like most other Reds fans on the internet. You're in man love Dunn. Well he's all yours! He is completing his sixth year with the Reds. Guess what? If you haven't checked the W/L record lately.... Reds have a pretty good chance of running off their 6th losing season in a row.

Yippee for homeruns into the river, league leading error totals, ~.215 lifetime batting averages with RISP and 190+ strikeout seasons.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 5, 2006 5:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's try more multiple choice

(Note: some of these may look remarkably similar to some questions I've already asked)

What is the number 1 reason the Reds currently have a losing record?
a) Their offense is 5th in the NL in runs scored
b) Their pitching is 12th in the NL in runs allowed

Complete the sentence: If the 2 most important indicators of offensive production increase with RISP for a particular hitter 2 years in a row, one might say that hitter is......
a) a good hitter with RISP
b) a poor hitter with RISP

Complete the sentence: Strikeouts are....
a) irrelevant to run production

by BLee2525 on Sep 5, 2006 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs