BA vs OBP
Batting Average vs. On Base Percentage
Which one is a better judgement of the value of a hitter? Why?
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OBP is the answer
except, I can't figure out why the Phillies have the #1 offense in the NL while the Reds have the #6 offense in the NL, despite equal OBP and only .001 higher SLG.
Anyone have an explanation?
by Blue on Aug 16, 2006 1:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lineup construction.
by sidnancy on Aug 16, 2006 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
so basically
by Blue on Aug 16, 2006 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lineup
On the other hand, we're also only talking about 35 runs in 120 games, or 47 runs for the season (.29 r/g). The holes at #2 and #3 will explain most of that; luck would explain the rest I'd guess.
If you're really interested in this stuff, read The Book, which goes through the theories and realities of such stuff as righty/lefty splits, hot streaks, lineup construction, and the like.
Using today's lineup, the batting order should be:
Hatteberg
Dunn
Ross
EE
Jr
Phillips
Freel
Aurillia
Lohse
Of course, Narron would rather give you his spleen than not have his speed guys at the top of the order (even if they're killing the team's scoring ability).
But Aurillia's been bad enough vs. RH that it should be:
Hatte
Dunn
Castro
EE
Ross
Jr
Phillips
Freel
Lohse
While lefties should see:
Aurillia
Dunn
EE
Ross
Freel
Hatte
BP
Jr
(pitcher)
and actually, Deno (!) should hit 7, BP 8, and Jr should watch.
In other words, the lineup is so screwed up most nights (compared to what would score the most runs) that while .29 r/g approaches the maximum difference a lineup can make, it makes sense that Reds are missing that much offense.
by sidnancy on Aug 17, 2006 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Clayton
by sidnancy on Aug 16, 2006 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Stathead answer
Another look at this: from a really simple analysis I did for fun a year or two ago, here are the r-squared values for a variety of different team offensive statistics when regressed onto team runs scored. Higher r-squared means that there's a tighter relationship between those variables and runs scored--in other words, they're probably a better measure of offensive production.
OPS 0.91
SLG 0.83
OBP 0.81
AVG 0.71
Hit# 0.68
HR# 0.52
BB# 0.35
K# 0.03
(SB-CS) 0.004
SB# 0.0005
These admittedly simplistic data indicate that OPS (on-base plus slugging) is the best single measure of offensive production among those I considered (if you include [1.8*OBP+SLG], you get an even better fit, though not by much--0.92). SLG and OBP were roughly equal overall, though they tell you slightly different information, which is why OPS is better. Batting average alone explains ~10% less variation in runs scored than either of OBP or SLG. It's not worthless, just not as good at predicting runs scored as OBP or SLG.
Interestingly, K's and SB's have almost no effect on runs scored. Some of the best hitters strike out a lot, but so do some of the worst hitters, which makes K's a poor predictor of production. The issue with SB's, of course, is that teams that don't score a lot of runs tend to run a lot out of necessity. But some teams that score a lot of runs and make good use of steals (Reds are an example), so again, they're not a good predictor of team runs scored.
-j
by JinAZ on Aug 16, 2006 2:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
who were the two who voted for the wrong answer?
by Daedalus on Aug 16, 2006 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Why?
by DisplacedFan on Aug 16, 2006 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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