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ESPN.com's Keith Law is smoking crack again

From his Insider page on the Lohse trade:

"This is a sensible need-for-need deal: The Reds needed more pitching, and the Twins needed to get rid of Kyle Lohse in the worst way.

Lohse had been out of favor in Minnesota for some time, due in no small part to his awful performance as a starter at the beginning of this season, but he's pitched effectively out of the bullpen for the past two months and could fill a similar role for the Reds. He does have four average or better pitches, with a plus cutter. And if his command improves -- perhaps the switch to the weaker league will help -- he could even give the Reds some help in their rotation. One caveat is that he's another flyball pitcher coming to the Great American Home Run Park.

The Twins get a good return for a player they didn't want. Zach Ward, the Reds' third-round pick from 2005, has a very good arm, with a sinking fastball up to 94 mph, a solid-average slider, and a funky delivery that creates good deception but that he finds hard to repeat, leading to command problems. He's pitched well, but not extremely so, for low-A Dayton this year. As a college product he should probably be challenged with high-A competition immediately."

Star-divide

I really have no idea what makes Law think Ward hasn't pitched extremely well this year:

20 games (18 starts), 114 IP, 74 hits, 37 walks, 0.97 WHIP, 95 Ks, 2.29 ERA, 2 HR (TWO!!!!).

In addition, last year at Gardner-Webb college, Ward gave up 18 extra base hits in 429 at-bats, had a .238 batting average against, a .328 slugging against, and their web site made him out to have a 95 mph fastball and an 87 mph slurve.

What GM of any team that plays in a HR haven, gives up a guy who's allowed two home runs in 114 innings for anything less than Mariano Rivera?

More worrisome is what the Reds do to the bullpen now. Exchanging Watson for Cormier leaves them with 12 pitchers. Assuming Lohse(r) is a reliever, then one of Bray, Coffey, Cormier, Guardado, Majewski, Shackelford, Standridge or Weathers has to go. And another one has to go by Saturday when Claussen will pitch.

As badly as he's pitched, Majewski could use a week or two in Louisville, but then who? Shackelford, since there would still be three lefties in the bullpen, I guess.

It's probably too much to hope for a D.F.A. for D.F. Weathers ...

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Ward
Let me start with this:  With the "success" of the Reds' homegrown pitchers the past 20 years, to trade a guy who shows a lot of promise for a guy like Lohse is curious, to say the least.  In other words, I don't like this trade.

That said, two things to look at with pitchers are  k/9 and k/bb.  If one is great, the other can be just OK.  But if one isn't great, you start to ask questions.

Ward's k/9 (5.8) is OK at best; his k/bb (2) is good, but not great.  Those 2 numbers, taken together (especially in low A ball), can (not have to, but can) give rise to concern about control.

by sidnancy on Jul 31, 2006 3:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Ward
has a hard time throwing strikes. When he does, he's very good. But he's just as likely to go back to not throwing strikes. We've had a shit-ton of guys just like that, and Krivsky has gotten rid of most of them.

by bobestes on Jul 31, 2006 3:41 PM EDT reply actions  

Lohse
Lohse has a higher ceiling than Ward. Ward is 22.5 in low-A ball without alot of strikeouts. Yes he might make it to the majors, and yes I wish we could have got a low grade prospect from the Twins thrown in. However, Lohse has proven he can have some success. He'll be a back end of the rotation type guy (if he ever starts), but I dont know that anyone can say Ward will be able to do that. This trade is a split. Neither of these guys will probably do anythign stunning in the majors, so we might as well look short term and had some pitching depth to the Reds roster.

by Stevo154 on Jul 31, 2006 3:52 PM EDT reply actions  

higher ceiling?
We know what Lohse's ceiling is, and it's not high.  Ward's potential is high, even if we don't know his ceiling.  So I think you have to give the nod to Ward.  

Especially since Lohse has the ability to do a lot of damage in the major leagues right now.  And that's "bad" in a bad way.

I can't imagine how elated Twins fans are about now.  Acquiring a young, top 2 organizational starting pitcher with great numbers and greater potential . . . for Kyle Freaking Lohse.  

by Brian B on Jul 31, 2006 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Top 2?
I thought Cueto was ahead of him too.

by DisplacedFan on Aug 1, 2006 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well..... Lohse
can give you big league innings right now, not 3-5 years from now.  So here's hoping Wayne knows what he's doing!

by mattg on Jul 31, 2006 4:26 PM EDT reply actions  

No he can't.
Kyle Lohse gives AA innings on a major league team. How Krivsky was convinced to give up anything of value for him, I'll never know.

by Geki on Jul 31, 2006 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

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