Reds have traded Kearns and Lopez to Washington
More to come.
Reds get:
Bill Bray
Gary Majewski
Royce Clayton
Brendan Harris
Daryl Thompson
Washington gets:
Austin Kearns
Felipe Lopez
Ryan Wagner
This has apparently been reported by 700WLW.
[Update]: Just got an email. Bergolla and Denorfia are being called up for tonight to replace Kearns and Lopez. Majewski, Clayton and Bray will be in uniform tomorrow night.
There will be a press conference at 4:30, you'll be able to hear it on Reds.com or at 700 WLW.
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GARY MAJEWSKI!?
Krivsky better be right.
Oops. They're closers, that's about right.
Kearns
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree
And Lopez, while not a superstar, did not suck. He just batted right-handed too often.
Reds
by gnarley on Jul 13, 2006 3:51 PM EDT reply actions
As a Reds fan
I think Bowden just fleeced the Reds. I feel dirty.
Fire Krivksy.
Hacked
Maybe Kearns and Lopez are at the center of a performance-enhancing-drug cartel?
by Eric Hinz on Jul 13, 2006 4:02 PM EDT reply actions
In Wayne I trust...
Now there is no excuse not to call up Denorfia.
I'd be ok with this
Why Bergolla instead of Olmedo?
by pw on Jul 13, 2006 4:06 PM EDT reply actions
My guess
Trade
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 4:08 PM EDT reply actions
Why not defend the Titanic?
by cggarb on Jul 13, 2006 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
The Trade
RF-Freel
2nd-Phillips
CF-Griffey
1st-Hatteburg
LF-Dunn
3rd-EDE
C-Ross
SS-Clayton
Look how much worse we are
Belise
Standridge
Bray
Mejewski
Weathers
Coffey
Mercker
Everyday EDDIE
Wow this trade sucks
It said on ESPN that Mejewski,Bray,Clayton would be there for the game tonight.
Still one of the guys in the bullpen must go
by gnarley on Jul 13, 2006 4:09 PM EDT reply actions
BP slides over to SS?
by pw on Jul 13, 2006 4:10 PM EDT reply actions
my reaction
... even though it feels like we've really taken one here...
trade
As for ya'll going off on Krivsky..can you wait please. This is the first year we actually have some hope and a GM who is TRYING.
Lopez was not strong on defense. Austin's track record in terms of staying healthy has not been good.
Like most trades of this sort, we need to give it time. I will say that having some new arms for the pen will be refreshing....
by Davey for Hall of Fame on Jul 13, 2006 4:15 PM EDT reply actions
Lose the "In Krivsky we trust" shit.
Kiss my ass, Krivsky.
here's the rub
this trade BLOWS
1B-Hatteburg/Aurilla
2B-Freel/Phillips
SS-Freel/Phillips
3B- EE or Aurilla depending on Narron's mood
C-Ross
RF-Denorfia
CF-Griffey
LF-Dunn
With maybe a slightly better bullpen. Is Krivsky serious with this? Two young, talented players starting to come into their prime, and we get who? Trade Dunn and his not so clutch hitting and no glove for these no name parts, but waste kearns and his defense and a switch hitting all-star from a year ago at short? Jim Bowden was probably drunk in his covertible, fighting with spouse and decided to prank kricsky with this offer and I guess he accepted. I hade faith in wayne...now? I REALLY hope he knows whats going on here b/c I don't. Doesn't a G.M. have to run these trades through the fair trade mode on MVP baseball for PS2 to make sure it makes any sense at all?
by bmaxwell13 on Jul 13, 2006 4:21 PM EDT reply actions
effing pessimism
Are you serious?
Dunn's not-so-clutch hitting? Have you been watching any Reds games lately? Forget his incredible "clutch hitting", the guy has the team's highest OPS for qualifiers. He's slugging .547 and his on-base is .369, despite his low batting average. Get over it, he is the BEST players the Reds have. No, his defense isn't superb. But his bat is one of the best in the game.
Yes, Lopez was an All-Star last year, for what that's worth (nothing), but his offense, if you haven't noticed, has been less than superb. Among everyday starters, his .749 OPS is lowest on the team. He's really never been much more than a spare part.
I'm not thrilled about Kearns departing, but Denorfia is the real deal. He will be as good, if not better, and he was never going to get a chance if one of the outfielders wasn't shipped. Clayton is not an important part of the deal; maybe Krivsky will trade him to a team desperate for a quality defensive shortstop. Doesn't matter, Lopez's absence frees up a spot for Freel to start every day.
As for the arms, they're young, but they look like they could be really good. Bray, if you'll take the time to look, hasn't give up an earned run in his last 6 appearances, and Majewski has a respectable whip of 1.34 (and dropping), which makes him a significant upgrade from almost everybody else in the bull pen. And he's young; he'll probably get better.
This team was going nowhere without some arms. Now we may have some. I'm happy Krivsky is trying.
Trades
or
Kearns RF
Soraino CF
Guillen LF
Nick Johnson 1st
Vidro 2nd
Lopez SS
Zimmerman 3rd
They have a better lineup then us
by gnarley on Jul 13, 2006 4:21 PM EDT reply actions
Net gain/loss
by Sultan of Swaff on Jul 13, 2006 4:21 PM EDT reply actions
Geki
RA, Clayton and Castro will just be stop gap SS's for the rest of the year.
Harris is a stud.
More will come....
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 4:22 PM EDT reply actions
Nats
by Sultan of Swaff on Jul 13, 2006 4:26 PM EDT reply actions
Lopez was not in the long-term plans
by pw on Jul 13, 2006 4:28 PM EDT reply actions
Well put
I think that Wayne was just bothered so much by the bullpen and defense that he went all out to try to fix it. I just hope that he didn't hurt the offense too bad in the process.
The relievers are young
by pw on Jul 13, 2006 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
Not at all what I was expecting
Brendan Harris is nowhere near a stud.
Yeah
Harris will be 26 next month and while his numbers are okay for a MIF, he's not someone that makes this deal all worthwhile.
Harris...
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Clayton
I understand his defense will be an upgrade, and I don't mind that. But his offense is abysmal. He has never had a league average OPS. Ever. And the last 6 seasons have never been over 84% of the league average. He better be a defensive wizard with that kind of offensive production.
What I meant by that is...
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand
The game is a balancing act, and the Reds are already on the negative side of the run differential. Losing Kearns and Lopez is a lot of offense. I hope they did enough to balance that out. I think Deno will do an admirable job balancing the loss of Kearns, but I don't expect him to keep putting up the same kind of numbers that Kearns has been doing. But who knows, he's been pretty hot in Triple-A.
I'm just not sure I see this netting out as a positive for the Reds.
I agree...
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
what article is Krivsky referring to?
How does our bullpen now stack up?
by biggsd on Jul 13, 2006 4:36 PM EDT reply actions
well
Denorfia
"Clayton has a young body"
by biggsd on Jul 13, 2006 4:39 PM EDT reply actions
I forgot
Even if the Reds make the playoffs...
Playoff team
By the way, anyone know how long Bray/Mejewski have left on their contracts?
service time
Debuts
by pw on Jul 13, 2006 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Also...
What's the goal here?
by Sultan of Swaff on Jul 13, 2006 5:03 PM EDT reply actions
I don't get it
My god, he listened to Daugherty.
New pitchers
by Sultan of Swaff on Jul 13, 2006 5:06 PM EDT reply actions
this pessimism
Well
And I don't think this changes Freel's role at all. He'll play the same amount that he plays already. Clayton is the everyday shortstop.
common sense
Are you kidding?
"All-Star"
I doubt seriously that Krivsky would have traded Kearns for the middle relievers he got if he thought he could get something better.
Just because Freel has a spot...
I disagree
Freel will not play everyday, but I'm OK with that. Play him when he's hot and sit him occasionally for Castro/Clayton/Aurillia.
lopez
maybe his value wasn't as high as we think?
I was thinking this
by DisplacedFan on Jul 13, 2006 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
um
by DisplacedFan on Jul 13, 2006 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
that may be true
the thing that can't be explained
For what it's worth
that
I don't know
Lopez (82.3 adjusted games): 4 FRAR, 10 FRAR2
Clayton (81.1 adjusted games): 5 FRAR, 11 FRAR2
I don't know how much to trust FRAR, but given the huge difference in offensive output (Lopez - 16.7 VORP, Clayton - 3.1 VORP), I'm concerned that Clayton isn't THAT much of an upgrade on defense.
Anybody having any insight as to the value of FRAR and FRAR2?
Too bad...
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 5:18 PM EDT reply actions
Its All About Pitching and Defense
* 2005-06 = 141 IP, 6 HR Allowed
No it doesn't
Shocked and depressed! I think it's a salary dump
Salary dump in preparation to resigning Harrang and Phillips?
I really don't see this trade making sense on a talent level.
Kearns departure makes room for Denorfia, but that is not an even swap by any measure. We'll have to clear out two spots in the bullpen for the new additions, thus in the trade we will also loose two of the following (Standridge, Weathers, Mercker, May or Yan). No options in this group to the best of my knowledge. And then throw in Wagner? I would not be at all surprised to see Wagner get his act back together in the next year or two.
I just do not see this trade panning out to additional wins. I don't think it helps us this year, and I don't think it helps us next year, and I don't think it helps team chemistry (Kearns had a lot of friends on the team and Lopez was universally seen as a good team oriented man.) I really think it may have been motivated by looming financial concerns. Kearns and Lopez would have cost the Reds about $8 million next year, about what they will have to pay Harrang to keep him.
No, I really dislike the trade. I really hate it. I want to pretend it didn't happen. Damn I hate that this happened! It is a damn dumb destructive stupid O'Brienesqe deal.
Pre-emptive salary dump
I don't know this, but I think when this group was looked over the Reds decided they could only afford to keep some of them. Apparently Kearns was seen as expendable, and surprising to me, so was Lopez. Kearns can more easily be replaced. There is no one in the Reds system that can replace Lopez. No one that comes close.
I notice that, besides the Royce Clayton throw-in, none of the players acquired come into their money next year. The move will save the Reds about $2 million this year, and probably save them $6-8 million next year. I figure this money will then go to Harang and Phillips.
So, if looked at in this 2006/2007 perspective, I think this deal may well have been motivated by the pocketbook. How else can you explain it? No way is this an even deal if talent is the bottom line. I've looked over the acquisitions at the Baseball Cube, and...
Brendan Harris (26 years old) - Nothing impressive here. Above average minor league bat but nothing eye popping. Given his age, I doubt he will ever develop into an above average MLB player.
Gary Majewski - (26 years old) Pretty good minor league numbers. Pretty good 2005 MLB numbers. Bad 2006 to this point. Looks like a decent bullpen pitcher but I don't see a very high ceiling on this guy.
Bill Bray (23 years old) - Probably the best acquisition. Very high upside on this guy who has risen through the minors very quickly and with very impressive numbers. He is the only addition I am excited about.
Daryl Thompson (20 years old) - Very young and has accomplished nothing very impressive to day. Might be a talent, but he is raw and, even if he pans out, years from contributing to the club.
And we all know about Royce Clayton. Hell, we already have Castro on the team. Did he need a twin? Nothing, no reason for him to ever play a game for the Reds. Reds should lock the club house door when he arrives and pretend they are not home.
Truth is, this trade might have been worth EITHER Lopez OR Kearns, with Wagner included, but in no way was it worth both, ... unless the 2007 budget was the deciding factor.
I'm happy to lose Lopez.... Kearns is the question
Let's face it. We were going to trade Kearns or Dunn this summer. The question is what could we get back. My guess is that we couldn't find anyone to take Dunn for a big prize, so we dealt Kearns for an area of serious need. Maybe if we were a big more patient.....
boobs....
War Reds. Its nice to have a GM/Owner who are at least TRYING!
by Davey for Hall of Fame on Jul 13, 2006 5:26 PM EDT reply actions
there it is
My take. Ill wait and see, but it feels kinda like when the Reds traded Wetteland for Greene. I really wanted that trade to work out also, but itnever did.
The Reds don't need Clayton, and Harris' celing is lower than Royce's. If Bray or Majewski were flamethrowers with control I'd be more optimistic.
That said, I'm sure Kriv is sold on this deal..r he would have never included AK and FeLo. I know Leatherpants asked for Wagner as a throw in, too bad he didn't ask for LaRue also.
by ohiobobcat on Jul 13, 2006 5:26 PM EDT reply actions
Krivsky took it in the heinie
And every non-high observer will agree that this trade was a first class ripoff.
by cggarb on Jul 13, 2006 5:29 PM EDT reply actions
So what you're saying is...
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Who's on first?
C: Ross
1B: Hatteberg/Aurilia
2B: BP/Freel
3B: EdE/Freel
SS: Clayton/S.F. Castro (ugh--Narron would never be creative enough to use BP here and start Freel at 2nd)
LF: Dunn
CF: Junior/Denorfia/Freel
RF: Denorfia/Freel
Compared to what we had before, we're effectively trading Lopez and Kearns for a mix of Freel and Denorfia, plus Clayton. Overall, this depends to a certain extent on Denorfia and Freel stepping up and giving the Reds at least a .750-.800 OPS to make up for the offensive zero that is Royce Clayton (think Q-Crapp, and you are getting close). Maybe the errors decrease, and you wind up with a slight net loss overall at SS.
The b***pen might actually have a chance of giving up fewer than five and a half runs every nine innings, although Bill Bray and his 1.43 WHIP in a pitcher's park (.692/.857 home/away OPS against) does not seem to offer much help immediately, compared to what was already there. When he's on the road, he basically turns everyone into Ken Griffey Jr. Seems like he's there for the potential, more than anything else, since mlb.com says he is the Nationals' top pitching prospect.
Majewski could help, but he seems to walk too many people. Nevertheless, over the last three years, he seems to pitch better and walk fewer batters away than home, so the home/road splits are not worrisome for him.
I don't think I like this trade, unless the prospects that we got are really stellar, because the major leaguers are leaving me more than a bit underwhelmed. Krivsky has traded two starters (and above-average ones, at that) for an OK reliever, a not-so-good reliever with potential, a weak hitting shortstop and two players I haven't heard of.
by Paul Householder on Jul 13, 2006 5:30 PM EDT reply actions
I can't wait....
optimistic
I think another SP is needed, and Homer will strengthen the bullpen around 8/30.
by ohiobobcat on Jul 13, 2006 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Hope you're right
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
by joshetc on Jul 13, 2006 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
naysayers
I don't think there's anything wrong with hating this trade. As far as I can tell, most of the world thinks the Reds lost it. Here's one example.
speechless
auditions
Wayne
Twins
Kriv
El Guapo and the two Nats(sound like a bullpen moniker) are acquired right when the RR Nation was pulling out their hair.
I sure would like to hear O'Brien's take on the past two trades. And the selection of Stubbs. Just for kicks.
by ohiobobcat on Jul 13, 2006 5:49 PM EDT reply actions
Sorry, y'all, but Majewski rocks.
I have much more to say about this on the only Reds/Nats blog on the planet.
I hate to lose Kearns, but I think we should all wait and see before getting ourselves worked up about it. And should you forget, I will remind you that our bullpen has single handedly put us at one game over .500 instead of 8 or 9 over where we should be, maybe more.
Thinking about it
by gnarley on Jul 13, 2006 5:58 PM EDT reply actions
don't like 2 see this-Nationals win deal with Reds
posted: Thursday, July 13, 2006 | Print Entry
Do you think Jim Bowden took a little pleasure in thoroughly robbing the organization that fired him in 2003? If not, perhaps he should, because he just pushed the Reds to the back of the NL playoff queue, and in the process picked up three players who entered the Reds' organization while he was their GM.
The Nationals were widely expected to be sellers in the July trade market, and that may still come to pass, but in this deal, they took on more salary than they gave up. In exchange for a talented left-handed relief prospect and three spare parts, the Nationals just added an above-average corner outfielder, an above-average shortstop, and a talented right-handed relief prospect. Whether they choose to keep Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez or move them for younger talent, the Nationals won this deal in a rout.
----------------
Only time will tell if this is something that haunts Reds fans later. What is for sure is that teams with great pitching have the upper hand in every aspect of the game/business. Sadly we are not one of them.
by BryanL on Jul 13, 2006 6:00 PM EDT reply actions
Ken Rosenthal
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5782006
I'm like gnarley, here, the more I think about it, the more I think we'll really be liking this trade come Aug/Sep.
The Reds may make the playoffs...
With this trade our bullpen has improved and our offense and defense have not suffered. Basically, it's not a bad trade.
What this does is gives the Reds a chance to make the playoffs. That's it. They have no chance of beating the Mets or even winning the World Series. Let's be frank. Hopefully, with a playoff birth it will bring in more revenue, more season tickets, where Wayne can make some runs at quality free agents.
That is what is needed in order make a run at being World Series Champs.
by Clove @ Red Reporter on Jul 13, 2006 6:05 PM EDT reply actions
Don't forget 1990
by jambolyajones on Jul 13, 2006 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed
by Clove @ Red Reporter on Jul 13, 2006 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Matbe with the 1.5 Million the Reds saved
LaRue and Brendan Harris and 2 Mil for a starter? Definate possibility.
I'm also suprised Kriv didnt get one of our catchers, the Nats only have one listed on their 40-Man.
For Those of you Upset
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/
big trade in the division today -- the reds sent felipe lopez, austin kearns, and ryan wagner to washington for a bunch of relief pitchers. one of them, bill bray, is lighting things up at triple a; another is pitching in short-season a ball; and the 3d is gary majewski, who's your basic middle-innings guy.
oh yeah, the reds also got an uninspiring everyday player at short, ie royce clayton, and a backup infielder.
trade seems to make no sense on its face; reds fans are skeptical, to say the least. but check out chris dial's position-by-position defensive rankings, posted just today. felipe lopez ranks dead last among nl shortstops; the reds must have had internal data showing much the same thing re felipe's glovework. now check out his batting splits -- he can't hit left-handers, and he's not such a great hitter away from GAB. so he's not nearly as great a loss as it might appear on the face of things. kearns is a genuinely good hitter, but the reds can replace him with chris denorfia, who is batting .350 at triple a and has already been recalled. . . . .
let's add it all up: the reds traded from their surplus (offense / home run power) to improve their two major weaknesses, defense and relief pitching. they also got rid of two guys who are heading into their arb-eligible years and likely to tie up more payroll than they are worth. that's a sensible rationale for a deal. it might not work out, and for obvious reasons i hope it doesn't. but if the reds weren't in the cardinals' division, i'd be rooting hard for krivsky to come out ahead on this trade.
=======
Well if you think about it, maybe it does make some sense.
Way too early to judge
The reason why this trade is upsetting is that you'd think Krivsky could capitalize on the perceived value of Kearns and Lopez. When my brother told me about the trade, I asked him "So...did they get Cordero?" Not because I thought that would be the fair deal, but because I figured that Krivsky would sell Bowden on the perceived value of Lopez and Kearns. Guess JimBow has wised up a bit.
I'm a bit disillusioned that this is all we could get for two of our regular starters, but we have to assume that Krivsky tried his best. Our bullpen is improved, we didn't lose anything in the field, and we're saving some money, perhaps for another deal. Let's take a deep breath and hope Denorfia is as good as we think he is.
Denorfia
by ohiobobcat on Jul 13, 2006 6:37 PM EDT reply actions
Crack smokers...
Terrible, terrible trade. Kearns isn't "replaceable" - he's a 30/30 guy who's a Gold Glove-caliber defender.
The numbers show that Clayton is as bad defensively as Lopez. At least he hits worse. And is 10 years older.
Middle relievers are this expensive only when you're out of your mind. I could see a couple of B+ prospects for Majewski or Bray - but 2 major league starters???
Um...
Kearns 30/30
by mattg on Jul 14, 2006 7:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Defense improved?
...below only - Your starting shortstop...Royce Clayton!
Clayton will not be the starting SS
by Clove @ Red Reporter on Jul 13, 2006 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Not so sure...
When pitiching is at a premium
by joshetc on Jul 13, 2006 6:47 PM EDT reply actions
someone else
They kinda break even
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Well said
by harangatang on Jul 13, 2006 7:59 PM EDT reply actions
I don't know
Phillips
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Spin it all you want
I'll start off by saying that I like Bray and Majewski. I live in Washington and go to Nats games fairly often, so I've seen both of these guys pitch several times. Neither of them will wow you, but they're both bulldogs. They know how to pitch, and just get people out, even if the K/BB ratio doesn't look the greatest. Even better they're both young, cheap, and far from free agency.
However, this deal makes no sense for one simple reason. The Nationals got the 2 best players in the deal currently, and the 2 players with the highest upside for the future. Period.
"Bashing Krivsky"
Instead it's freaking Majewski who's got about as much potential as my grandmother. Clayton, who's prime was about 8 years ago . . and it wasn't even that good then. Daryl Thompson who is apparently the opposite of everything we thought Krivsky liked in a pitcher. And Brendan Harris who is just plain mediocre. What is supposed to be the key to this deal?
How does Krivsky manage to spin some of our highest trade commodities into 4 bags of crap?
Sometimes people can play the ol' "don't bash Krivsky until you see the results" card. This is not one of those times. This is an absolute abominable trade.
whoa
Potential?
I'd venture to call Majewski and Bray solid
pen
And those guys aren't solid.
We'll see
Frankly, I'm sick and tired of watching this team blow leads in the late innings. I'm happy with anything that would represent an improvement. I'm not jumping for joy, but I'm not shedding any tears. We won't have any trouble scoring runs and the defense improves by leaps and bounds without Lopez at SS.
I think we just learned what a tough trade market it is this year, as well as what major league GMs think about Kearns--ie, not much.
Disagree
by BuckeyeRed on Jul 13, 2006 9:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Two quality pen guys.
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Kearns for Soriano
I'm just trying...
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Kearns and Lopez
I agree...
Again, I say that assuming that Krivsky and his scouts aren't a complete morons - and I don't think either of us would say that. He wouldn't be in the position he is in if he were.
by mattg on Jul 13, 2006 9:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying they're worthless
However, I suspect that most GMs have looked at the Phillips and Ross deals and are worried about getting burned. I think it's shortsighted to assume that Krivsky didn't try as hard as he could to get better players for Kearns and Lopez, which is what everyone here is implying.
Bottom line is, we weren't going to make the playoffs with Kearns, Lopez, and that bullpen. We can replace those two players and improve the bullpen. It's easy to see why he made the deal.
Would people be this upset if it had been Denorfia instead of Kearns? I think not. Yet, I believe they are about equal in value.
Missed Our Point
by BuckeyeRed on Jul 13, 2006 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree
However, if Majewski and Bray suck, I will be the first guy to say I was wrong. But if they end up helping the pen, I think it could be the move that nets us the wild card and all that extra TV money.
Best Case Scenario
How did Bud Selig let this deal go through so fast?
Ugh
If you haven't read the comments to the diary on Sickels' page, here it is:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2006/7/13/155437/683
It's a mix of people laughing at Krivsky and people feeling sorry for Reds fans.
I Heard Krivsky Interview today
I am not upset we traded Kearns and Lopez. I am concerned with what we got in return. Middle relievers are the easist players to obtain. Look what we gave up to get Guardado.
We are heading in the wrong direction Reds fans.
by BuckeyeRed on Jul 13, 2006 9:24 PM EDT reply actions
This trade
Time will tell and I hope this works out. I really hope it works out. This could easily turn into Frank Robinson for Milt Pappas or Tony Perez for Woody Fryman.
I don't like moving Phillips
That said, I hate Deno in the leadoff spot. It just doesn't work for me. He's not much of a basestealing threat (he strikes me as a good baserunner, but not particularly fast), and I'm not hopeful that he'll hit .300 this year. I think .280/.345/.420 is probably a realistic projection for this year, with a few sprinkled in steals and homers. He ought to be hitting 2nd or 7th.
A relief
Dumbest line: "look, this is the price you have to pay for pitching."
So, its nice to be back among the thinking fans.
We gave up one legit top flight player in Kearns.
We gave up a guy in Lopez who is only average this year, but has the potential to be very good.
You got one relief pitcher who appears to be a little above average.
You got another relief pitching who is too young to tell (But WLW says Wayne says "lots of teams wanted him" so you can take that to the bank).
And you got a very average SS. And a couple minor leaguers who will likely never be anything.
I think our offense is now growing old and thin and I think the bullpen was helped only a little.
Finally, they kept adding these guys to the Guardado acqusition. Where was it decided he was going to be our answer at closer.
We needed help this year. But I think we have given away too much of next year.
by orangeandbrown on Jul 13, 2006 10:07 PM EDT reply actions
Kearns
top flight
Yeah, I did say that...
by orangeandbrown on Jul 13, 2006 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Delusional
While Kearns is not a hall of famer when you combine offense and defense he is your best player. Even if you call Lopez for Clayton even, which is crazy in its own right, you just traded your best player for two middle relievers. These aren't even top flight middle relievers either. Just two above average guys at the easiest position to fill in the majors
This is the worst trade not involving prospects in my lifetime. It is a complete unmitigated disaster that makes them much worse in both the short and long term.
The fact that some think that what you got is as good as Jake Westbrook shows that if you like this deal it's because you don't know what you're talking about.
Simply horrible.
by Gaelan on Jul 13, 2006 10:44 PM EDT reply actions
Westbrook
if anyone here doesn't know what they're talking about, its you.
yes, I'd take Westbrook for Kearns
so
Hmm
this is what I'm trying to get at
huh?
yeah
The most I can remember being offered for Kearns was Westbrook or Jason Marquis. You said you didn't know if you'd do that deal. I assume you wouldn't do that deal because you don't think it would be fair value. So, if that assumption is true, then you value Kearns more than the people who were making offers.
yup
if you think
Westbrook
Middle relievers, on the other hand, have very limited value. Good teams find them for free every year. They certainly don't trade their best player for them.
Here's a little thought experiment for you. If the Cardinals offered the Reds Adam Wainwright and Josh Hancock for Kearns would you make the trade? The answer is no because that trade would improve the Cardinals substantially and make it very difficult to catcth them and thus explode the myth that this trade was done for the pennant drive. This, despite the fact that Wainwright and Hancock are better than Majewski and Bray.
by Gaelan on Jul 13, 2006 11:06 PM EDT reply actions
that trade
outfield
I don't want to have a subject
So I have a question. If middle relief is so valuable then why don't the Nationals (who presumably have good middle relief) have a better record.
What really makes the deal crazy is that by virtue of a single trade the Nationals, one of the worst teams in baseball, and the Reds, nominal playoff contenders, are now of similar quality. The Nationals have the better offense but their starting pitching is probably worse than the Reds. Their bullpens are similar. The Nationals have the better closer but the Reds have middle relief to their credit (hoorah). In a single trade your GM turned you into one of the worst teams in baseball.
by Gaelan on Jul 13, 2006 11:34 PM EDT reply actions
Look at Denorfia's OBP
Lopez, on the other hand, is the worst defensive SS in baseball and slugs under .400. I'm not sad to see him go.
To counter your question--if Kearns and Lopez are so damn good, then why were the Reds only 1 game over .500 with them?
This trade says more about the current market than it does about Krivsky.
Excuses for a bad trade
Denorfia is easily as good as Kearns for different reasons. But we already had him! t's not like they traded Kearns for Denorfia.
wait a sec
why not?
playoffs
yes
you're right
Meh
Anyway....I completely understand why everyone is upset, to an extent. But to immediately call this the 2nd worst trade in Reds history is overreacting just a tad. Let's wait and see what happens, mmkay?
Denorfia is not as good as Kearns
by Gaelan on Jul 14, 2006 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Kearns vs. Denorfia
342/407/685. Denorfia's line this season is remarkably similar except without all the power. It's also not like Denorfia is young. He's a 25 year old marginal prospect destined to life as a fourth outfielder on a good team or a starting job on a hopeless team like the Reds. He isn't within ten miles of Kearns as a baseball player. Not only is Kearns a better hitter but Kearns is one of the top defensive right fielders of the game, is an above average baserunner and has an above average arm. There isn't a single thing that Denorfia does better than Kearns.
It's usually a good idea to deal from a position of strength but when you do you should deal from the bottom of the deck not the top. I get the impression that most of you are glad you traded Kearns instead of Denorfia. That's plain wrong.
by Gaelan on Jul 14, 2006 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions
just so you know
I don't think Denorfia is better. I just hope Deno can put up a good OBP and OPS a little over .800, which I think he's capable of.
However, while he certainly doesn't have Kearns' power, he does have better speed. That's all I really know. However, from things I've read about him, I think he'll be a better baserunner and I think he'll be a better outfielder than Kearns and has more aptitude for CF than Kearns. (Yes, Deno has a good arm.) This isn't to say Kearns wasn't good in these areas, I just think Deno will be better.
Denorfia
What I'm not fine with is that WE ALREADY HAD BOTH OF THESE GUYS! The pisser of it all is that we got bullpen improvement that could have been picked up anywhere. AND we lost both of our trading chips in one fatal swing. So very very sad.
How do you know?
THat's one fanboy's take. Hooray fanboys!
evidence
well in a way
Kearns is the best player the Reds have
The Reds are only one game over .500 because they have a mediocre starting rotation, a bad bullpen and the worst defensive centerfielder in the majors.
They "solved" the least important of these problems by trading their best player which only gives them new and bigger problems to solve.
by Gaelan on Jul 14, 2006 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Jeez, overreact much?
It doesn't look good right now what with the spectre of Clayton looming over our heads, but all of this Chicken Little BS is making us sound like friggin Cubs fans.
Where did this Kearns fetish come from anyway?
we've seen this before
Hatteberg stinks
Aurilia will be our starting 3B
why do we need Dave Ross
the year is over
I don't know how many times I've said that I wanted to trade Kearns. So you can't call this a fetish. We got marginal crap in return though. Cubs fans are laughing at us right now along with the rest of the planet.
clayton is crap
Infield
How do we see this year's and next's infield? That's what's unclear to me as we have all these redundant players, and I also don't see what this deal means for Ryan Freel. Is the real outfield replacement for Kearns going to be Edwin? Do we see Hatteberg, Freel, Phillips, Aurilia in the infield, with Dunn, Griffey, and EE in the outfield?
by HokieRed on Jul 13, 2006 11:49 PM EDT reply actions
Robinson is before my time
by Gaelan on Jul 14, 2006 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions

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