What The New Guy Needs To Do (Or All Krivsky Has To Accomplish To Be A Better GM Than Dan O'Brien)

by Watubi on Feb 8, 2006 7:39 PM EST

It is my thought that, contrary to established beliefs, the Reds are not actually all that far away from being viable playoff contenders. Seeing how it's too late for the new guy to make any significant signings before the start of the season, it's not likely to happen this year, but if he can keep the offense together, there should be real hope for 2007.

If the Reds can continue to score runs at their 2005 clip, then all Krivsky would have to do would be to put together just a marginal, run-of-the-mill, simply average pitching staff, and the Reds would be in the thick of things.

Last year the Reds led the league with 820 runs, 13 more than Philadelphia and 15 more than St. Louis (the only other NL teams to score more than 800). It's no secret that the pitching staff did them in, allowing a league high 889 runs. Throw those numbers into the Pythagorean Theorem and you get a record of 74-88, which is only one game better than the club's actual mark of 73-89 (actually, if you round up a couple of times you get a 75-87 record). That means, of course, that the Reds performed basically as they should have in 2005, given the staggering amount of runs their pitchers gave up.

The average runs allowed in the NL in 2005 was 732. The mean was 726, a number shared by the teams tied for eighth in the league, the Padres and Cubs. That means if the Reds just had an average pitching staff last year, like the Cubs or Padres, they would have had the second best record in the league (behind St. Louis), and been in the postseason as the Wild Card winner. Using the arithmetic average (732) in the PT gives the Reds a record of 90-72, one game ahead of Houston; the mean (726) gives a record of 91-71, a two-game cushion over the Astronomicals.

Knowing this, I suggest that Krivsky forget trying to put together the big bucks to lure a Dontrelle Willis or Pedro Martinez or Roger Clemens to town. Keep the offense together and get us more guys like Horacio Ramierz or Brad Halsey or Victor Santos!

On second thought, maybe a 2006 run isn't completely out of the question. Harang and Claussen were above average last year. Dave Williams was right about average (4.41 ERA). If somehow Eric Milton can only revert to his old, mediocre self, the Reds'd need only one more humdrum starter to make a serious run, and maybe Luke Hudson or Paul Wilson could be just banal enough to get the job done!!!

Tweet Comment 10 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Don't forget...

The bullpen, though. It was a complete disaster.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Feb 8, 2006 7:57 PM EST reply actions

average pitching

Unfortunately you can't assemble an "average" staff by acquiring average pitchers. You need at least one Pedro/Dontrelle type to make up for the below average pitchers that will inevitably comprise a staff, most likely in the bullpen.

There's a really small margin of error in hoping for Harang/Claussen/Williams/Milton/Whomever to be a league average starting 5. In the very likely event one or more of them falters, we're looking at 800+ runs allowed.

by Red Menace on Feb 8, 2006 10:07 PM EST reply actions

average

And I'd add that if the strategy is to be good enough to lose in the first round of the playoffs, then this kind of number-crunching can be persuasive. But the evening-out that occurs during a long regular season does not exist in a short playoff series; you need at least one legitimate number-one starter and a good bullpen. Sometimes that's all you need -- the best example of this from the last 20 years is probably the '90 Reds. I'd agree the Reds are not as far away from contending as it may seem, but instead of getting more Wilsons or Miltons (which is what I fear will happen), I would rather roll the free agent dice on an ace. If one of the young closer candidates steps up, then all of the sudden we have a team that could not just contend, but actually catch lightning in a bottle and win it all (as in '90). And until the farm system is rebuilt, I think that's our best hope.

by ctnyc on Feb 9, 2006 12:59 AM EST reply actions

Free Agency

I actually don't think we should go the free agent route. The market for starting pitching is just too inflated. Look at Milton before last year. Forgetting the ominous fb/gb homer stats, he appeared to be a thoroughly average pitcher, with an ERA+ that drifted from 90-110. And that average pitcher commanded 8 million dollars a year. If you have a payroll like the Reds, you need to be able to produce an average pitcher from your farm system. If you can't you won't compete. You can't go looking for them on the free agent market. It's just too expensive.

At the time of the signing there was some gee-whizzing among Cincy commentators that he chose the Reds over the Yankees. Of course he didn't straight "choose" us. We offered him more money. Think about that. At some point the Yankees said, "Whoa, we're not paying any more for that!" And the Reds did. Should the Reds ever pay more than the Yankees or any other large market team is willing to pay? That's what it takes in free agency.

But maybe the mistake was aiming too low. Should the Reds have opened the purse strings for a true number one--a Pedro type? Now you're talking 15-20 million a year, for a player who takes the field every five days and is always one ill-fated pitch away from the DL.

I agree the Reds are closer than it initially seems to competing. The offense is championship caliber. But until they can develop good cheap pitching they will never compete. Once you have some cheap young arms you can dip into free agency to try to put the team over the top, but it's not the way to turn things around. That road just leads to Milstones.

Sigh...It's late (early actually) and I can't sleep so I'm rambling...

by Red Menace on Feb 9, 2006 5:14 AM EST reply actions

Good points

That's some pretty good rambling.

Here's the other horn of the dilemma that the Reds face. If they wait to develop pitching, they are not going to win before the current set of young offensive players start to wonder off. And, much like the pitching, there aren't any young offensive studs waiting in the minors to replace any big leaguers that leave.

The fact of the matter is, unless Krivsky is some sort of trade wizard, the Reds likely won't be able to compete for 2 or 3 years without picking up some sort of free agent help. Now there is always hidden help on the market (see: Milwood and Loaiza 2005). Those are the kind of pitchers that Krivsky is going to have to find. They may not be staff aces, but if they can be a solid #2 or 3, that would go a long way to helping the team win.

And unless Homer Bailey or Travis Wood or some other young pitcher suddenly turns into the next Felix Hernandez, the Reds aren't likely to have a killer ace coming out of their system for a long time.

"No matter what happens, someone will take it too seriously."- Dave Barry
Reds (and Blues)

by Slyde on Feb 9, 2006 8:56 AM EST up reply actions

defense

One problem with that thought process is that "keeping the offense together" means continuing to field a defense that includes Wily Mo, Dunn, Griffey, etc...which will greatly damage any pitching staff.

by greg456 on Feb 9, 2006 1:01 PM EST reply actions

Griffey

I still don't get these defensive shots taken at Griffey. I know we've all seen the "statistics." But put him in center in St. Louis, and he wins the gold glove.

by Brian B on Feb 10, 2006 11:26 PM EST up reply actions

I know I'm dreaming...

...but what would it take to have Barry Zito with that beautiful curveball in a Reds uniform? I know that his salary (current and expected) is gonna be a shot to the wallet, but if Krivsky could weasel him out of the A's...that would be the sort of move that would move us from talking about maybe making the playoffs to talk about maybe hanging another banner in the stadium.

And before anyone starts, yeah, I know that the 'pen is a mess, the rotation after Zito would be a little shaky, and that we're starting a basic rook at third, and that there's little chance of the catching situation coming up roses like it did last year, but a guy can dream, can't he?

Don't wake me until next Thursday. :)

"I'd walk through hell in a gasoline suit to play baseball" - Pete Rose

by Officer Dibble on Feb 10, 2006 8:50 PM EST reply actions

Zito bait

Unfortunately, I don't think we have what it would take to get Zito. I say unfortunately not because I'm dying to get Zito (I think a new league and the ball park and his occasionally-flattening curve could spell doom), but because we don't have the trade bait. The A's have plenty of young pitchers with strong arms and low innings. They like projectable hitters who get on base and maybe take the extra base. To get Zito, we would have to give up at least a couple of these types who will be ready soon. Doesn't sound like anybody I can see...

by ctnyc on Feb 11, 2006 11:46 PM EST up reply actions