Free Agency Follies: Why are baseball GMs making so many stupid deals?

by satyanaas on Dec 6, 2006 4:41 PM EST Comment 10 comments

From Slate.com:

"In 2002, Red Sox owner John Henry and GM-to-be Theo Epstein half-jokingly pleaded with Michael Lewis to ditch a book he was working on. Lewis' tome would detail the stubborn inanity of baseball executives who relied on the often-incorrect wisdom of lifelong baseball insiders. Henry and Epstein told Lewis that if he laid bare the advantages of teams that sought out market inefficiencies when gauging players' worth, those advantages would evaporate. But as this offseason has once again demonstrated, the Red Sox execs had no reason to worry about Moneyball. There are just as many mind-bogglingly stupid deals as ever."

Full article at: http://www.slate.com/id/2154944/?nav=ais

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It's not all stupidity

My 10 Sanest Signings
(compiled in 5 minutes, so no nitpicking)

Honorable Mention

Scott Williamson 900k/1 Baltimore
Yeah, it's probably nostalgia for 99 that makes me like him. But Baltimore gave out 8 figure three year deals for relievers and Williamson could conceivably best them next year.

Randy Wolf 8M/1 LAD
I don't think anybody's complaining about this.

Wade Miller 1.5M/1 CHC
I've always liked him too much. But a 1.5 million flyer for one year on a starting pitcher is reasonable.

10. Jose Guillen 5.5M/1 Sea
One year deals are just are just super. You're not trying to buy a team through free agency, just fill gaps.

Mike Mussina 23M/2 NYY
Tom Glavine 10.5/1 NYM
Greg Maddox 10M/1 LAD

They kept chugging last year. Maddox and Milton make the same amount. All these guys took a little less to be where they wanted to be, but they didn't extort lengthy contracts.

6. Jason Schmidt 47M/3 LAD
It's the length that's so good. I can't believe he didn't get four. Would you rather have Padilla for ~11M or Schmidt at 15? All big starter contracts are risky, but given this offseason this seems reasonable. Pedro got 54/4 two years ago.

5. Hideki Okajima 2.5M/2 Bos
He's a relief pitcher. Other than than I don't know much about him. But for two years he's making what Weathers will make in one. He's 30 and Japanese pitchers usually have initial success when the league doesn't know them. Saito came from Japan last year to become an ace closer for LA.

Frank Catalanotto 13M/3 Tex
David Delucci 11.5M/3 Cle

Good solid production at reasonable prices. They'll both platoon and pinch hit.

2. Moises Alou 8.5M/1 NYM
No long term risk and potentially a great bat for a team that wants to win now.

1. Aramis Ramirez 75M/5 ChC
Ok, here's a big one. But he signed so soon he didn't really test the market. I think he could have gotten a lot more. He's 28 so they're paying for his prime years. For all Jim Hendry's problems he's been good at acquiring players at the end of their contracts then locking them up if they perform (Derrick Lee was another). For a big market team this is a great method. Before him the Cubs have had a black hole at third since Ron Santo, and he's my first round pick in my death pool for next year.

But they all pale in comparison to the best signing of the offseason

* Jose Cruz Jr 675k/1 SD
He was clearly the very best talent this year. I would have paid 10M for the negotiating rights with him.

by Red Menace on Dec 6, 2006 5:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Shoddy at best

It's Maddux, not Maddox.

It's Derrek Lee, not Derrick Lee. :P

Actually, it's a pretty good list. I wouldn't rate Ramirez so high because it is still a huge contract, but it's not a bad one. I agree with the rest of your list though.

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2006 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

blame Nraj

He's my guy in Bangalore I outsourced my spell checking to. He's good, but has trouble with names and idiomatic phrases.

by Red Menace on Dec 6, 2006 7:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You're still using Nraj?

I'll send you the number for my guy Kiran. I just started using him and I've noticed a marked improvement in my grammar and spelling.

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2006 9:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

its because

the red sox, and teams like that, arent built on efficiency. Players arent evaluated to preform based on the dollars they're paid. Call it stupid, inane, a folly, but they're working in their own market. In a strange way, they're not run like businesses, they're run like games. And game theory says if you have the best players, you should win.

That's not to say that these owners and GMs dont care about turning a profit. But i think it's a lot easier for teams like the red sox and yankees, who have seemingly limitless marketing power, to be loose with their wallets than teams like us.

Am I talking out of my ass? I don't know, maybe. But that's how I've always thought about it. So put a big "methinks" around this comment.

Fynal Cut... Get skewered

by boobs on Dec 6, 2006 5:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The Red Sox

are responsible for two of the worst deals this winter. Almost as if Theo wants to remind everyone that he is most definitely not a "Moneyball" GM:

Drew (5/70) is a long time for a player with his injury history and personality. I don't usually put much stock in intangibles, but there are certain types of players who do much better away from the harsh media/fan glare. Drew could be one of them.
Lugo (4/36) sounds like Renteria redux. A lot for a 277/340/402 guy. The Gonzalez deal looks very good in comparison.

by ken on Dec 6, 2006 6:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget

$51 million for the right to negotiate with ol' whatshisname.

They must be hemorrhaging money. I bet if I went and sat outside there office, they'd give me $500 just to run down to Dunkin' Donuts and get them a dozen glazed and an iced latte.

by Slyde on Dec 6, 2006 6:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and $100 to pahk the cahh

The Matsuzaka $$ is unreal, and we don't even know what the grand total is yet. But it is contingent on getting the deal done, and that deadline is fast approaching.

by ken on Dec 6, 2006 7:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

theyre not paying that money

because they're not going to come to an agreement with him. They won't admit it, but that deal was probably nothing more than a way to keep matsuzaka away from other teams (yankees).

It's a pretty brilliant method of collusion, if you ask me. Seibu -- or the japanese league, whichever -- made the rule so that whoever had the highest bid doesn't have to pay a red cent if they can't reach a deal with him. So who wins? Seibu gets to keep their star, which they never would be able to do on a truly open market, and Boston gets to keep Dice-K as far away from the Bronx as possible. The guy who got screwed was Dice. BOHICA, Dice. You're the victim of global collusion.

I think unless the Japanese league wants this to happen more often (which they do, I'm sure), they would put provisions in the auction that if the team can't reach a deal they still have to pay a percentage of the negotiating fee (like half). Then these international GMs wouldn't be allowed to play their cute little games with the marketplace.

Fynal Cut... Get skewered

by boobs on Dec 6, 2006 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It'll get done

(1) As shrewd as Boras is, he really has no leverage here. His client wants to pitch in the U.S. - not just for the challenge and prestige, but because he'll make more money (his '06 salary was $3 mm). But more importantly, he can't incorporate the Yankees or Rangers into a bidding war.

(2) Seibu wants the posting money. 6 bb Yen is something like triple their payroll. I'd take $200mm for Harang and Arroyo both, and I'd even throw in Weathers to boot.

(3) From Boston's perspective, they need to get this done too. Not only do they need a front line starter, but they'd burn bridges in Japan and with MLB if they screwed this up.

by ken on Dec 6, 2006 10:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs