Open Thread: Bronson Arroyo

by JD Arney on Dec 28, 2006 4:25 PM EST in News

Bronson Arroyo

Bronson Arroyo has ended up being 1/3 of the Holy Trinity (Phillips and Ross being the other two) that Wayne Krivsky can point to as his best moves. The outlook on Krivsky would be even bleaker if not for the Arroyo for Pena trade. It's funny to remember now how brilliant everyone thought Krivsky was after Arroyo's April. And he was at that point. Since ...

Anyway, I'm digressing from Arroyo. Bronson had an outstanding season in 2005, and he's a legit number two starter, and he's probably passable as a number one on a weaker team. Add that for a significantly below market contract and you've got one of the best values on the Reds roster.

The Reds really aren't that far from contention if they had someone in charge with a clue. They have two above average starting pitchers who aren't making much money, and on the offensive side of things they have some high value players as well. EdE, Denorfia, Freel, Dunn, and Phillips are all fairly cheap (some more than others) for what they provide.

The big question with Arroyo has to be whether he can continue what he did in 2005. The league change probably played at least a small part in his improved numbers, but he's also entering the prime age of his career so it's tough to tell. It's probably just as likely that he could improve even more as it is that he'll regress.

Questions to kick off this open thread:

Since Arroyo is signed to a cheap contract his trade value is probably fairly high. If the Reds are out of it this July do you think they should trade him?
Do you think Arroyo will be able to repeat his 2005 numbers?

Here are Arroyo's career stats for reference.

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Answers

nope
nope

I dont think a ballclub, especially a small-market club, should ever trade a starting pitcher that is being paid $7-9M under market value. Unless its to the Yanks for Phillip Hughes.

Courtney for President, 2008

by ohiobobcat on Dec 28, 2006 4:45 PM EST reply actions

Zito signs 7yr/$126M contract with

Giants. Option for 8th yr @ $18M if Zito has 200IP final year/400IP final 2 yrs/or 600IP over final 3 yrs.

Fugly.

Courtney for President, 2008

by ohiobobcat on Dec 28, 2006 4:48 PM EST reply actions

I say...

Depends. If he can stay better than average, we should try our damndest to resign him for a couple of extra years. Even if that's unsuccessful, the Reds look (right now, on paper) much better in '08 than in '07, and even if he falls to #3 in the rotation, he'll be hideously cheap. If he shows signs of returning to "just below average", someone will give the moon and stars for him at the deadline.
I don't think so. But I don't think he needs to be nearly that good to be very, very valuable with his contract.

just....wow.

by sidnancy on Dec 28, 2006 5:50 PM EST reply actions

I always get the sense

... that Bronson has a calendar in his room and he is just crossing off the days until his contract here expires. I think we should hope for the best from him this year, but if we are out of it, then we should trade him, because he is gone at year's end.

by TheC on Dec 28, 2006 7:12 PM EST reply actions

Bronson Is dying to get back to Boston...

He's made it clear he's not thrilled about being in Cincinnati, and that he won't be here after his contract expires.

His trade value will never be higher, as he is signed for two cheap years, and is coming off of a career year.

I have doubts he will be able to repeat last year's success, and given my optimism for this year, even if he does it won't help the Reds.

They should have traded him for an Outfielder or other starter this offseason, and given his spot in the rotation to Homer Bailey.

Michigan was Robbed!

by chandrathan on Dec 28, 2006 7:21 PM EST reply actions

Pleasantly surprised...

I am very happy to have been wrong about this move. I hated this trade when it happened; Arroyo never impressed me and we gave up a very promising (but admittedly frustrating) young outfielder for a guy who seemed to be a more hyped because he happened to be on the Red Sox team that won a Series. Obviously I was wrong and it's worked out great.

That said, I don't think he will repeat his numbers. He'll most likley have some climb-down, due to several factors (new league, wanting to prove something to his old club, just plain old happening to have a career year) that will go away next year. Or maybe he's "gotten it" and is playing up to his true potential. But if they trade Dunn, and Griffey gets hurt again and the offense completely tanks (like I fear it will) and the Reds are looking at a 70-win season, absolutely trade him for young talent.

by ellipsis11 on Dec 28, 2006 7:59 PM EST reply actions

Trade

How much do we think Arroyo would bring? If the Reds could get a top flight starter prospect on the same timeline as Homer--real due date, 2008--and a second sure starting position player--outfielder (to go with Bruce and Stubbs), catcher, maybe SS--could we pass that up if 2007 is clearly in the tank by July 1?

by HokieRed on Dec 28, 2006 9:48 PM EST reply actions

Don't trade him

There's nothing more valuable than pitching depth.

Let's hope WayneK can put together the winning team that would make Arroyo want to stay in Cincinati.

Did I say that?

by dmcgee on Dec 28, 2006 9:57 PM EST reply actions

Hmmmm.

1 Hell no
2 Yes

Reds fan for 40 years!

by gejoe on Dec 28, 2006 11:14 PM EST reply actions

Hrumph.

I'd explore trading him at the deadline when we're 15 games out of it. If there's something real nice on the table, we'd be stupid not to take it.
I can't see him repeating last year. That 2.60 ERA at GABP isn't likely to keep.

by Geki on Dec 29, 2006 1:01 AM EST reply actions

Arroyo

Yes, absolutely.
Sorta. Something around a 3.65 ERA is what I expect, along with similar K numbers and IP.

I really hate to even think about this team being out of the race in July. I'm convinced that Castellini and Krivsky both want to win now and I think it can be done without trading away our future.

by Blue on Dec 29, 2006 2:57 AM EST reply actions

Trade Him

The chances that Arroyo will even resign when his contract is over is slim to none. We need to get as musch out of him as possible. If by the trade deadline we are out of it, he needs to be traded. We could easily get some good prospects for him. If we are in the playoff hunt, he needs to stay, he has good veteran presence and at times can undoubtably be the best pitcher we have.

by redacolyte on Dec 29, 2006 8:13 AM EST reply actions

No, maybe

As great as he was in '06, Arroyo's peripherals were not out-of-whack with his career. His K/9 and K/BB were much better than '05, but actually a little worse than '04 (his only other year with more than 100 IPs). His G/F ratio was right at his career average. So it's not as if his '06 came out of nowhere.

Some think that he benefitted greatly from his defense last year, but I find that hard to believe on its face (his FIP was a bit higher than his ERA, however). It could be that he scattered his hits instead of clustering them. Or, it could be that some well-hit balls happenned to be hit right at our fielders. But even if some regression is likely, he should still be a All-Star caliber starter and an absolute bargain.

by ken on Dec 29, 2006 11:14 AM EST reply actions

2007 Zips

Name                     Age    ERA   W   L   G  GS     INN    H   ER  HR   BB    K

Bronson Arroyo            30   3.86  13  10  34  32   212.0  209   91  28   59  155

Not too shabby. Zips likes Arroyo better than Harang. Does anyone want to share pecota?

His value is high right now but I'd be more interested in trading Milton at the break and having a go at '08 with Bronson.

It's a given that he's not going to be here after his contract expires, and that's fine, but I've heard he wants to return to Boston. Why? He took a below market deal with a handshake agreement that they wouldn't trade him, then they promptly shipped him out. Shouldn't he be pissed at Boston?

by Red Menace on Dec 29, 2006 11:24 AM EST reply actions

Trade Brandon!

You think the Yankees would consider trading us Phillip Hughes for him?

Michigan was Robbed!

by chandrathan on Dec 29, 2006 11:56 AM EST up reply actions

If so, what is the rush to trade him by July of 2007?

My answers are:

Yes (actually no, as explained below), only if the return is high enough based on his actual contract status (which is signed for dirt cheap through 2008). Anybody is tradeable aside from only a handful of players in history (players who are so valuable that you will never get equivalent value for them, such as Roger Clemens in his prime, Pedro in his prime, etc.), and the Reds don't have any of them. My fear is that Krivsky is such a not-so-good GM that he will be unable to get equivalent value for him. When I look at The Trade, I fear that he will trade Arroyo for middle relief prospects. So perhaps my answer really is "no," since not doing a trade eliminates the chance of a huge mistake, which, from a probabilistic perspective, seems much more likely than a good trade.
No, but he still will be worth a lot more than $3.8 million.

Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Dec 29, 2006 3:27 PM EST reply actions