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Open Thread: The Bullpen

David Weathers

I kind of thought it would be overkill to have a seperate thread on each and every reliever, so I figured we could knock them all out at once. Let's run down the current list:

  • Toddy Coffey: Coffey is one of the Reds relievers with the most upside. He's also one of the few relievers who I didn't dread coming into a game last season. He's a lock to make the team, unless Krivsky does something stupid and trades him. Which could certainly happen since Coffey's young and good, and Krivsky doesn't seem to appreciate either of those qualities. He does run to his position though, major props for that.
  • Rheal Cormier: Absolutely no reason to give Cormier two years on his contract. If not giving him the extra year meant not acquiring him then that would have been ok. The guy's going to be 40 years old this April, and I'd be absolutely shocked if he's useful all season. His ERA was near 6.00 in 2005, so who knows what we'll be getting in 2007.
  • Bill Bray: He damn well better be good, that's really about all I have to say. He's just about the only reason we gave up two starting position players, so he needs to become a shut down closer for that trade to be anything other than worthless.
  • Gary Majewski: I actually like this guy, even though he wasn't worth anything last year. If he's healthy I think he'll be solid. Reminds me of Scott Sullivan for some reason, although I couldn't really tell you why. He'll be 27 next season, so you'd hope that he's getting ready to enter his prime.
  • Mike Stanton: Pretty much everything I said about Cormier applies here too. The main difference is that Stanton won't be 40 until June. Don't laugh, but it really wouldn't surprise me to see Stanton as the closer in 2007. I don't think it'd be smart, but I could see it happening.
  • David Weathers: I'm a fan of Weathers, and I'm glad that he was resigned. He seems to have a bad month every year, but other than that he's pretty solid. He's had an ERA under 4.00 two years in a row now for the Reds, which means he can stay however long he wants as far as I'm concerned. Things are that bad with Cincinnati's relievers. Plus he's a spring chicken at only 37 years old. I'm sure Krivsky figures he's got another five years in him, at least.
  • The Rest: That's six spots that I figure are pretty lock solid, leaving just one open bullpen spot heading into spring training. I really can't remember the last time things were so certain in December when it came to the Reds bullpen. The last guy will probably be one of Matt Belisle, Elizardo Ramirez, Jon Coutlangus, Phil Dumatrait, Bobby Livingston, Calvin Medlock, Brad Salmon, Brian Shackelford, or David Shafer. My guess right now is Brad Salmon, but we'll have to see how it plays out.

Questions to get the ball rolling:

  1. Does the age thing bother you as much as it does me? I've gotten pretty sick of Krivsky signing over the hill relievers, but that might just be me, I don't know.
  2. Do you think the Reds will have a better bullpen this year than last? If yes, why?
  3. Who fills the last spot in the bullpen in your opinion? Why?

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Hmm
Who is the JD Arney guy that posted this?  The name seems familiar, but I can't quite put my finger on it. :P

by Slyde on Dec 21, 2006 11:50 AM EST reply actions  

Just a guy...
who got stuck on "The Polar Express", which caused a seven day delay in posting new material.

My kids are absolutely hooked on that flick, fyi.

Courtney for President, 2008

by ohiobobcat on Dec 21, 2006 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

My real thoughts
  1. The age thing bothers me only because those guys are getting 2 year contracts.  There is no reason for it, yet it happens.
  2. Yes, the bullpen will be better, but I don't think it will be a strength like it was in the early aughts.  It sucked so much last year though, that maybe I'm just thinking it has to be better by default.
  3. If it were me, I'd be giving Coutlangus a try every night.

by Slyde on Dec 21, 2006 12:00 PM EST reply actions  

Wow.
The must have gotten inside your head in the Rios mega-thread.

Word for word, baby, word for word.

by sidnancy on Dec 21, 2006 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

WTF?
I always proof read before I post.

I must have gotten...

by sidnancy on Dec 21, 2006 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

scary
Every single guy on that list scares me. Every one of them could implode on a given night.

by greg456 on Dec 21, 2006 12:31 PM EST reply actions  

Yuck.
No confidence in anyone on there. For all the love we give Coffey, he still had a 1.44 WHIP last year. He's really, really hittable and unless he makes new strides with that splitter we saw some last year, that's unlikely to change. Cormier is useless -- a LOOGY who is worse against lefties than righties. I didn't like anything I saw out of Bray last year. His control was bad and his stuff was pretty unimpressive, and I don't see him ever becoming a good closer. Majewski is probably the best of the bunch when he's healthy, but his control and lack of strikeouts scare me. Stanton was a decent signing for one year, terrible one for two. Let's just hope he does well enough to be traded off for a decent prospect at some point. Weathers is the reliever I have the most confidence in, and let's not act like he's really anything more than a solid 7th inning guy in a decent bullpen. As for the rest, I still like Belisle as a potentially good back of the bullpen guy, assuming he can stay healthy. Coutlangus is also intriguing, if for no reason other than his name. Elizardo shouldn't be a bullpen candidate, there isn't much room for Love Shack without dumping Cormier (and we should be dumping him for Shackelford), and the rest are probably still a year or so away.

by Geki on Dec 21, 2006 12:54 PM EST reply actions  

Coutlangus is also intriguing
You said a mouthful right there.

(please, somebody stop me.  I need help.)

by Slyde on Dec 21, 2006 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

INTERVENTION!
Reds fandom: A study in futility and masochism.

by Ash on Dec 21, 2006 12:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Coffey did well when he set up
I wonder what his numbers look like when you separate his set up numbers from his closer numbers...

We're gonna need some Depends for this bullpen, I think.

winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Dec 21, 2006 1:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Coffey by inning
I Split         G   PA   AB   R   H  2B 3B HR  BB IBB  SO HBP  SH  SF ROE GDP  SB CS Pk   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip
+-+------------+---+----+----+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+--+-----+----- +-----+-----+-----+
   5th inning     2    5    5   0   0  0  0  0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .000  .000  .000  .000  .000
   6th inning     6   18   17   5   6  1  0  2   1   0   2   0   0   0   0   2   0  0  0  .353  .389  .765 1.154  .308
   7th inning    15   56   46   7  12  2  1  0  10   1  11   0   0   0   3   1   0  0  0  .261  .393  .348  .741  .343
   8th inning    41  131  124  10  36  5  3  2   6   1  28   1   0   0   1   3   0  1  0  .290  .328  .427  .755  .362
   9th inning    26  103   94  12  26  5  0  2   7   1  11   1   0   1   1   4   0  1  0  .277  .330  .394  .724  .296
   Ext inning     6   27   24   3   5  3  0  1   3   2   6   0   0   0   0   0   0  0  0  .208  .296  .458  .754  .235

I suspect this will be unintelligible.

by Red Menace on Dec 21, 2006 1:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Add a little more to RM's post
Here are Coffey's numbers in games where the Reds had the lead and he pitched in the 8th inning or later.  I've also broken those into specifically save situations (lead of 3 runs or less).  These are both small sample sizes, so take with a grain of salt.  

Situation                 IP  R ER   ERA   BF  AB   H  2B  3B  HR  SO BB IBB HB SH SF RE DP  Avg  Obp  Slg  OPS
Lead 8th or later       23.2  7  6  2.28  100  95  28   5   0   0  12  3   2  1  0  1  0  3 .295 .320 .347 .667
Save Sit(8th or later)  14.1  5  5  3.14   61  57  18   3   0   0   6  2   1  1  0  1  0  2 .316 .344 .368 .713

As was pointed out in a thread a while ago, Coffey's numbers got killed in tie ball games more than anything.  He also had one outing against Houston in August where he pitched in the 7th inning and gave up 4 runs without getting an out.  Those kinds of games can kill a reliever's numbers.

by Slyde on Dec 21, 2006 1:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Bullpen
The reds should get more out Bray and Majewski, hopefully they become the late innings answer, together with Coffey. In other words change roles with Weathers and Stanton.

Remember 1990

by Dominican Red on Dec 21, 2006 1:28 PM EST reply actions  

No Nasty Boys
I think saying, Remember 1990, might be a strecth, as that bullpen will most likely never be repeated... espeically with the heat that Dibble could throw, Myers track record of being an established closer, and Charlton's versatility.

I'm hoping, and will definitely settle, for a repeat of the 1999 three-headed monster of Graves, Williamson, and Sullivan... all relatively young, cheap, with something to proove before getting hurt (Williamson), cocky (Graves), or over used (Sullivan).... although, apparently Majewski had already jumpstarted Williamson's career path before we even got him.

by indy on Dec 21, 2006 1:58 PM EST up reply actions  

No nasty boys
Remember 1990 is just a phrase that i use in every post to keep upbeat and positive.

Remember 1990

by Dominican Red on Dec 21, 2006 5:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Not bad, but not great...
Age doesn't bother me as much as production.  I don't care if a guy's 60 as long as he can get people out.  Signing people circa 40 for more than a year is a little risky, I think.  This makes me a little uncomfortable with guys like Cormier.  But I don't feel the same about Stanton.  The guy's old, sure, but of everyone in the bullpen, he absolutely knows what he's doing.

Also, the only way it seems the Reds will ever construct a solid bullpen is either by signing aging relievers or grooming a young group in the farm.  There's no way they go out and spend big $$$ on prime relievers.  At least, I don't see it happening under this administration.

All this being said, I think it's a better bullpen than last year.  Maybe that's just 'cause I actually know who's in the bullpen this year and that makes me more comfortable.  Actually, I think the main reason we're better is that we know where Coffey does his best work (8th inn) and where Weathers does his best work (7th inn).  I guess that still leaves the 9th open, huh?  Well, I still feel better about things, no matter irrational.

by ben nevis on Dec 21, 2006 1:29 PM EST reply actions  

My Pick
Jared Burton

by gnarley on Dec 21, 2006 2:04 PM EST reply actions  

Burton
I was wondering when he would get a mention.

Considering the Reds have to give him a shot, he might be worth it.

Certainly more than Rheal Cormier - oops...who will be here for the next two years without fail.

by jmcclain19 on Dec 23, 2006 2:31 AM EST up reply actions  

The Pen
  1.  Yes, the age issue is a problem.  Relievers are not like wine. However....
  2.  Is there anyone on that list that you WOULDN'T take over Estaban Yan, Rick White, Chris Hammond, or Ryan Franklin?...  we are much better off than last year.
  3. I would say Shack, but I still can't get over the whole match.com thing from last year.  It has to be Belisle as I don't see anyone else that can be the mop-up inning eater in the previous 6 'locks'

by indy on Dec 21, 2006 2:24 PM EST reply actions  

2006 DIPS Rates
Todd Coffey: 3.74 DIPS
Rheal Cormier: 4.89 DIPS
David Weathers: 5.22 DIPS
Gary Majewski: 4.20 DIPS
Bill Bray: 3.86 DIPS
Mike Stanton: 3.07 DIPS
Matt Belisle: 5.17 DIPS

2006 NL RP Average ERA: 4.17

Now, this is quick and dirty, but let's assume the Reds relief corps achieves virtually the same number of Innings as last season (@470 IP) with those pitchers getting the following IP splits in 2007:

Coffey: 80 IP
Cormier: 50 IP
Weathers: 75 IP
Majewski: 80 IP
Bray: 60 IP
Stanton: 65 IP
Belisle: 60 IP

Assuming that each produces a 2007 ERA that approximates their respective 2006 DIPS rate, the raw ERA would project to be 4.28. Given no further backtracking by the senior citizen RP contingent and hoping for progress from Coffey, Bray, and Belisle, we might see a bullpen ERA right around league average in 2007.

But I hate plans that require everything to go right and there's no safety net under the tightrope the pen projects to walk in 2007. As currently composed, the bullpen is mediocre at the top and it could be extremely soft past Coffey and Bray if anything at all goes wrong.    

by Reds123 on Dec 21, 2006 2:39 PM EST reply actions  

Answering the Q's
  1. The age in the bullpen? To an extent. I think that it IS absolutely necesary to have a couple of veteran relievers in there... David Weathers is the best example. As for Stanton and Cormier... We DO need one lefty veteran pitcher... Merker was the man last year... having two though seems like suicide to me. I totally agree with JD that Stanton will probably end up being our closer... not a good thing though in my opinion... he closed a good bit for the Giants last year.
  2. I think the bullpen WILL be a bit better this year than it was last year. For one thing... you really can't get a lot worse than last year's bullpen. Majewski... who knows? He could end up being pretty good... One of the few guys in the pen that has a heater that can acutally reach the mid-90s. Bray is one of my favorite guys to watch. I think he's gonna be great in a year or two for us. Also, if Stanton doesn't work out, maybe we will start to SLOWLY integrate Coffey into the closer's role... He wasn't real good there last year... but he DOES have closer stuff.
  3. Last spot in the bullpen? Assuming he's healthy, I'd probably say that on OPENING DAY... it should be Matt Beslile. He's got some experience, but isn't ancient. The other guys are all good and fine, but I'd really like to see them start in the minors so we could keep an eye on anything at the beginning of the season.

by crolfer on Dec 21, 2006 3:25 PM EST reply actions  

my take
Someone made the comment that this bullpen scares them, which is somewhat true. These guys will be losing some games this year, there's no doubt.

But there's hope. I like Stanton and Weathers for this year at least. Hopefully, one of the younger guys (Majewski, Bray, Coffey) will step up and have a decent year. I would love to see Coffey in the closer role by the end of the year. Since Krivsky didn't go after an established closer this offseason, he might be counting on it.

As far as the last spot goes, I like Belisle. He'd be a good middle innings guy.

by KAredsfan on Dec 21, 2006 5:33 PM EST reply actions  

My take...
I'm with Slyde. There's something I also like about Coutlangus.

Sometimes Coutlangus stinks. Sometimes Coutlangus just doesn't get the job done. Sometimes Coutlangus is so much to handle I can't get the words out of my mouth. Sometimes Coutlangus leaves me so drop-jawed that I can't open my mouth for days.

But there's another side that i can't put my finger on. Sometimes Coutlangus is pretty sweet, smometimes, smummttmies... sorry, sometimes Coutlangus leaves me toungue-tied. It's hard to talk about, especially around a lot of people you know and respect. But as much of a pain in the neck as Coutlangus can be, I can't imagine life without him.

My favorite thing about Coutlangus? He teases with the fastball, then the change up, then the fastball, then another changeup, until, just when he's driving you so crazy you think you're going to scream, he finishes things off with a wicked screwball.

by boobs on Dec 22, 2006 12:50 AM EST reply actions  

I like Coutlangus
Coutlangus should be excellent as long as Coutlangus isn't ever paired with Rusty Kuntz. Even considering the enticement associated with the potential involvement of Dick Pole, I feel that the influence of Rusty Kuntz would entirely spoil my interest in Coutlangus.

Now, should Rusty Kuntz not be an issue, then I think that a Coutlangus/Dick Pole combination should rock the world of even the most discriminating fan.

by Reds123 on Dec 22, 2006 3:01 AM EST up reply actions  

I realize...
That this is only the tip of the iceberg.  I can't imagine what it will be like on this blog if, during a game thread, you hear Marty saying, "Dick Pole coming out of the dugout to see Coutlangus."
Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Dec 22, 2006 10:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Coutlangus has nasty stuff
"...And that's ball four. Coutlangus tried to slip that one in the back door, but he's not fooling anyone. Coutlangus' stuff really isn't working tonight. He's nibbling. ...And here comes Dick Pole. This should end the night for Coutlangus. And sure enough Coutlangus gets the tap on the shoulder. His night is through. He can hit the showers."

by Red Menace on Dec 22, 2006 4:45 PM EST up reply actions  

Only reason I like this bullpen better
At least after three appearances, I'm assuming each of the pitchers in the 'pen will have an ERA.  Unlike Chris Hammond, who couldn't even get anyone out the first several games he was in, so his ERA was incalculable.  Amazing.  Simply amazing.  

And Majewski, the dashing buccaneer, represented our fine country in the World Baseball Classic last spring.  I'm hoping that that screwed him up, and this year he'll be great.  This is probably not realistic, but that's my hope.  And while we're there, all of Junior's misfortunes, including his new broken hand, can be heaped on the WBC too.

by Brendanukkah on Dec 23, 2006 9:23 AM EST reply actions  

Toddy?
Is that a typo, JD?  Or is he now the two drink reliever?  "Hot" Toddy Coffey.  Not a bad nickname...

by Brendanukkah on Dec 23, 2006 9:25 AM EST reply actions  

Salmon
He is My Pick, by far the best RP in AAA last year
GO REDS!

by ewquinn on Dec 25, 2006 11:45 PM EST reply actions  

Well...
Age doesn't bother me, I think the bullpen will be better since we lost a lot of the ineffective guys from the first half, and my money is on Belisle.
Reds fan for 40 years!

by gejoe on Dec 27, 2006 11:53 PM EST reply actions  

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