today's developments--questions for more knowledgeable lurkers

I was going to post a diary entry about Bonderman.  

This is not good, budget-wise.  While they are similar, and at the same point arb-wise, Harang can point to being a better pitcher.  Over the past 2 seasons:

• His k/bb is 3.54 vs. 2.87 for Bonderman
  
• His WHIP is 1.27 vs. 1.32, even though he plays in a more hitter-friendly park.  Surprisingly, the league WHIP is the same for the 2 leagues over the past 2 years (1.39).
  
• His ERA+ (if I figured it right) is 122 vs. 102.
  
• He's pitches deeper into games, even though he pitches in a league without a DH (he's more likely to be hit for) - 6.66 IP/start vs. 6.4.

Bonderman is younger.  Harang has a much better k/bb (slightly lower k/9 - 7.65 vs. 7.75); better WHIP; much better ERA+; and more innings and innings/start.  Harang could, in fact, argue that Bonderman won this contract based on performance similar to Harang's '04-05 seasons, and that Harang's '06 was much better.

I've been arguing for 2 months that they should tie Harang up as soon as possible to a multi-year contract.  They're really going to regret it now.

Harang:
Year Ag   G   W   L   WL%     IP    H    R   ER  HR   BB  SO  HBP   ERA   WHIP  ActG
+-------+----+---+---+-----+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+-----+------+----+
 2002 24   16   4   4  .500   80.3   74   42   38   7   43   65   3  4.26  1.456   16
 2003 25   16   3   5  .375   76.3   89   50   45  11   19   42   1  5.31  1.415   16
 2004 26   28   7  10  .412  158.3  183  103   93  27   55  122   5  5.29  1.503   28
 2005 27   32  13  10  .565  210.3  215   98   88  22   51  161   8  3.77  1.265   32
 2006 28   36  16  10  .615  239.0  231   99   89  27   53  220   8  3.35  1.188   36
+-------+----+---+---+-----+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+-----+------+----+
 Totals   128  43  39  .524  764.3  792  392  353  94  221  612  25  4.16  1.325  128


Bonderman:
Year Ag   G   W   L   WL%     IP    H    R   ER  HR   BB  SO  HBP   ERA   WHIP  ActG
+-------+----+---+---+-----+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+-----+------+----+
 2003 20   33   6  12  .333  162.0  193  111  100  23   58  108   4  5.56  1.549   33
 2004 21   33   9  11  .450  186.0  164  106   95  23   71  169  10  4.60  1.263   33
 2005 22   29  10  11  .476  189.3  198  106   95  21   57  145   4  4.52  1.347   29
 2006 23   34  13  11  .542  217.0  207  101   91  17   62  204   3  3.77  1.240   34
+-------+----+---+---+-----+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+-----+------+----+
 Totals   129  38  45  .458  754.3  762  424  381  84  248  627  21  4.55  1.339  129

Like sidnancy said, Bonderman's 2006 is right on Harang's 2005 season, except with more strikeouts and a couple more walks.

I think the big thing that the Reds have going for them is that Harang is 5 years older than Bonderman.  They can argue that Harang has reached his peak (or plateau if that makes you feel better), while Bonderman could argue that he is still a couple of years away from his.  Think of it this way, Bonderman is one year behind Harang in quality, but 4 years ahead in the age where he put up that performance.  I don't know if he's ever shown signs of injury, but if not, then I would say he projects to be a better pitcher than Harang in 4 seasons.  I think the Reds could argue that is the reason why Harang doesn't deserve any more money than Bonderman.

Pittsburgh signed two foreign pitchers for modest amounts - a 25 year-old Cuban defector (3 years, almost $2mm) and an old Japanese free agent (minor league deal).  I have no idea if either of them will work out, but I do commend Pittsburgh for its creativity in trying to take advantage of undervalued foreign players.  The Dodgers got a real bargain last year in signing Saito (78 IP, 107 K, 23 BB, 2.07 ERA, 24 saves) from Japan for close to the minimum.  I'd like to see the Reds engage in some foreign market arbitrage, but I'm not holding my breath.  

Apparently it is not the 3 year, $28 million that was reported last week.  

$21 million for three years makes a little more sense.

Giving a back-of-the-rotation scrub like Marquis $7 million a year is insane. Which most of Major League Baseball is these days....insane.