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Open Thread: Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn

Well, I had to do it eventually.

Adam Dunn is obviously the most controversial player on the Reds, and he didn't do anything to change that fact in 2006. He had probably his second worst season of his still young career, putting up a line of .234/.365/.490, not too far off his 2003 line of .215/.354/.465. He also put up the second highest strikeout total of his career, managing to K 194 times, one less than his career high.

With that said, there were certainly positives. His OBP is excellent, even in a down year. He hit the 40 home run mark for the third straight year, which is a remarkable feat, one that I don't think most Reds fan appreciate enough. He also walked over 100 times for the fourth time in his six season career (and 2001 and 2003 don't really count because he didn't play a full season either year). Dunn also is a gamer, coming to play nearly every day. He missed just two games in 2006, the third straight season he played in 160 or more games.

Sports fans tend to blame their favorite team's best player for what ails their team, a tendency I've never really understood. Many Reds fans have been perfectly willing to overlook Dunn's awesome power and plate discipline in favor of obsessing with his strikeouts, but I'm honestly not sure if this is a mark against Reds fans. There are probably very few fan bases in America that would appreciate what Adam Dunn brings to the table.

Questions to get the ball rolling with Dunn:

  1. Should Dunn be traded?
  2. Is Dunn's defense acceptable in left field? Is he made worse because of Ken Griffey Jr. in center or is he simply hopeless?
  3. What do you think about Adam Dunn's strikeouts? Are they meaningless, or should Dunn be working on cutting them down? Do you think a reduction in strikeouts carries with it a loss of power?
For further reference: Adam Dunn Career Stats

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Dunn
  1. Should he be traded? Yes.
  2. Is his defense acceptable in left field? No. He should be a designated hitter in the AL. He's hopeless on defense, whether Griffy's in center or not.
  3. Dunn's strikeouts? He'd have less K's if he were on an AL team with a huge offense.
It would be in Dunn's interest, and ours as well, if he played for a team like the Red Sox or Yankees or White Sox. The Reds don't have the dollars to field an offensive heavy-weight team.    

So let's dangle Dunn out there and see what we can get. We're on the path to better pitching and better defense.

Did I say that?

by dmcgee on Nov 26, 2006 11:08 PM EST reply actions  

offense
The Reds don't have the dollars to field an offensive heavy-weight team.

Don't worry. They're not. To confidently say they'll have the worst offense in the division I'd have to check some Pirates' projections (and who wants to do that?), but they're at least behind the other four squads.

by Red Menace on Nov 26, 2006 11:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Better pitching?
I agree with Menace re the offense.  Even with Dunn, the Reds have a worse offense than all of the other teams in the division other than the Pirates (and in that case, I don't care enough to check).

With respect to better pitching, the Reds actually have an above average rotation.  It's the bullpen that sucks, but you don't trade solid (much less irreplaceable, as described in the comments below) position players for relievers, unless the reliever is Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman in his prime...

Uh...wait...er...hmm...did the Reds do that at some point?

Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Nov 27, 2006 10:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Dunner
So we trade Dunn, then our offense will rely soley on Rich Aur...crap.  Even if we received a decent starter or closer for Dunn our offense becomes Freel reaching on an infield hit and after stealing second he waits and waits for someone, anyone to knock him in.  Dunn's bat must stay in Cincy until Votto or Bruce reach the bigs and prove themselves worthy.

by rose2hall on Nov 26, 2006 11:11 PM EST reply actions  

He is what he is
A guy who will carry you for two weeks and then disappear for two weeks. If he's traded it should only be for at least two young players/prospects who will be ready to contribute in the next year or so because the Reds would be punting '07 while waiting for Bailey, Votto, Bruce, ect. I don't mind the strikeouts to an extent, but 194's a bit much. His defense might be tolerable if he played with a better CF. Dunn and KGJ together are brutal. Most years I'd be OK with punting '07 in favor of a better future, but we were so close last year even with down years from Dunn & KGJ that it would be hard not to try to win this year. If both guys bounce back at all we'll be in the race again this year. My biggest concern is that he has regressed at a time when most players are hitting their prime.

by matchu522 on Nov 26, 2006 11:27 PM EST reply actions  

Some consistency would be nice
He's the streakiest damn player ever and I don't think his second half slump is something that is a huge worry for the future. He has a career .893 OPS, he's damn near a lock for 40 homers, and I think he'll have a fairly strong rebound year next season if used properly. He's terrible (and, for some reason, declining) defensively, but LF defense is honestly just not all that important. We really can't trade him right now. His value is at an all-time low and the offense simply couldn't take the hit. If Krivsky feels he has to trade Dunn, he needs to wait until the middle of the season when teams really need some offense.

by Geki on Nov 26, 2006 11:59 PM EST reply actions  

Dunn
In a year where Juan Pierre is bringing in $10M, I can't possibly see how the Reds can move Dunn.  His defense sucks, but how many left fielders have great defense?

Dunn is going to bring 40 HRs and he's going to get on base a lot.  If the Reds would add some bats around him, we'd be in a good position to contend.  That being said, it's going to be awfully hard to win anything w/out some upgrades and who knows if the Reds are going to commit to the necessary pay raises to make this happen.

I really think Dunn has taken way too much abuse from Reds fans.  No he's not a 5 tool player, but how many guys are?  The Reds failures in the past few years have nothing to do w/ Dunn and everything to do w/ the front office.  If the Reds don't keep a competitive payroll, I don't see them ever contending on a consistent basis.  It's depressing to see the other teams in the division upgrading themselves and all we see from the Reds is minor signings and continuous talk that they are going to trade one of the most prolific power hitters in the league.  Ughh.

by JCH888 on Nov 27, 2006 12:14 AM EST reply actions  

The Strikeouts don't matter.
For a player like Dunn, K's are a residual of power and patience. Over the past three years, exactly five NL players have produced 100+ Runs Created in each season. Dunn is one of those five. They don't grow on trees. They can't be consistently replaced. Teams are so desperate to find a resonable facsimile, that they'll pay ridiculous amounts of money for career years (Soriano) and historically less productive "RBI men" (Carlos Lee).

Many Reds fans don't like how Dunn produces Runs. But in the grand scheme, he does produce them. There aren't many players like him...ever. Because of that, his value tends to be misunderstood. And to the questions:

  1. Dunn should be traded only if it will change the fortunes of the franchise. That means it needs to be a huge win for the Reds.
  2. Dunn isn't a good defensive Left Fielder. Not by a long shot. A better defensive Center Fielder would help, but a move to First Base would help more.
  3. Unless Dunn cut down on his K's by improving his two-strike hitting (which is his main weakness), the behavior that would most likely lead to a reduction in K's would also most likely reduce his Isolated Power (SLG minus BA) and Secondary Average. That's not a tradeoff I'd like to see in any situation other than two-strike hitting. And we need to realize that fewer K's don't necessarily result in fewer Hits. The real tradeoff is K's for Walks- not K's for Hits. The latter really never happens for a player like Dunn.
Unfortunately, much of the instruction Dunn's been given revolves around "situational" hitting rather than two-strike hitting (by both Boone and Narron). Overall, Dunn's K's would drop and his numbers would improve should he simply be instructed to lay off certain pitches regardless of situation; i.e. rather than trying to "drive in Runs" he needs to better take what he's given. That's the way of the best hitters ever- including Ted Williams and Albert Pujols.

Take more/swing less and the result will be an increase in BA and a decrease in K's. Not because he'd get more Hits from a volume perspective, but because he'd reduce his AB due to the additional Walks he'd receive.

And the funny thing is that Dunn's most productive season (124.9 Runs Created) is also the year in which he set the MLB Strikeout record. If K's actually mattered, that couldn't have happened.

by Reds123 on Nov 27, 2006 1:36 AM EST reply actions  

No; No; Cut 'em down
  1.  I used to think Dunner should be traded; however, I agree with most of what has been said above.  Don't see us getting any great return on him for what we could pay long term.  Plus, look at what our team would look like without him.  He helped carry this team quite a ways this year, even with his strike outs (Slyde, I'd appreciate some stats to back this up!).  What I find interesting is that people talk about other prospects coming up or other players who are here now and none of them come close to Dunn's abilities, offensively.  I certainly don't see Deno as an acceptable replacement in any way, shape or form.
  2.  His defense is not acceptable.  But it won't get any better.  He's been here 6 years and I don't see any sea change coming soon.  As said above, it is what it is.  If he stays with us long term, I think after Hatteberg is gone, we try "The Experiment" again.  He sure as hell doesn't look like he enjoys running around out there.
  3.  I can't imagine anyone believing his strikeout numbers are acceptable.  To be at nearly 1,000 strikeouts with only 6 years of service is downright embarrassing - except it's tempered with monster homers.  I can't believe that a cut down in strikeouts would result in a considerable loss of power.  He's a big boy.  He knows what to do.  But he really needs to cut 'em down.  Enter Mr. Jacoby.  Show us you're worth it, coach.    
I gotta take a wicked "yes"! - Peter Griffin

by NYRed on Nov 27, 2006 7:25 AM EST reply actions  

Durability/Rest
The Reds need to either rest Dunn more or figure out a way to curb his second half slump, which wasn't just last year.  His career OPS by month: 963 in July, 820 in August, and all the way down to 752 in September/October.  Some of this may be due to injuries, but a lot of it is probably a guy playing everyday who weighs 250.  Given a few more days off, we should see better second-half numbers.  

by ken on Nov 27, 2006 9:26 AM EST reply actions  

Dunns defense.....
Adam Dunns defense is possibly the worst in the league. His UZR last season  was -23 runs. His VORP was only 23 runs last season. So basically, Adam Dunn is making 10 million bucks next season, for being about replacement level if you account for his offense and defense (2006 levels only). If you can put someone who is worthwhile in LF with the glove and is just a replacement level hitter, you are getting Adam Dunn type production overall (offense and defense) for much much less than 10 million dollars.
www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Nov 27, 2006 9:31 AM EST reply actions  

Except
  1.  No one, even Mitchel Lichtman (who invented UZR), would ever say you can use 1 year's worth of data to come to any conclusions.
  2.  '06 was a very bad year for Dunn; in '05, his VORP was 45.
  3.  I would caution against comparing "runs" in one stat (VORP) devised/calculated by one person (Baseball Prospectus) using one set of stats (offensive) with another stat (UZR) devised/calculated by someone else (Lichtman) using another set of completely unrelated stats (defensive play by play) and calculated in a way you are not allowed to know (Lichtman's calculations are proprietary and secret).  Especially since hits and outs may lead to runs, but aren't directly translatable (expecially on defense).

by sidnancy on Nov 27, 2006 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Except
A few comments:

Dunn's defense has consistently been rated below -20 via UZR since, well, Dunn became a major leaguer. There isn't a play-by-play metric that suggests Dunn has gotten better defensively since '04.  He's basically flatlined (scary because defense ages badly). Anyway, what's a better way to evaluate his defense?

And for the record, while UZR data is now essentially owned by the Cards, Lichtman's methodology is not secret. In fact he waxes poetic about it in sabermetric newsgroups (where by the way he occasionally releases data for players during the course of a discussion).  Dunn's '06 UZR has indeed been released as -23 runs. If you want to ding a system for being secret and unvetted consider Davenport's defensive ratings...

Now for his offense...  Alright, lets ignore VORP. THT reports Dunn had 98 RC in '06. The average leftfielder in the NL during '06 had 92 RC (assuming 600 PA).  I doubt anyone would consider Dunn to be league average defensively. So completely ignoring an actual value for his defense, its intuitive that his 6 run advantage over a league average leftfielder just vaporized. AT BEST you can stick your thumb in the air, squint your eye, say "ehhhhhhhhhhhh" and guesstimate that when considering his offense and defense, Dunn was somehwere at or below the average leftfielder in the national league.  Using     tools that are accepted by the sabermetric community, Doug is right, Dunn's '06 was absolutely ugly.

Now go try and  trade him and the $23M owed him for '07 and '08.

by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 10:52 AM EST up reply actions  

couple points
If he is traded the 13M for '08 disappears.

Like sid said, '06 ended up being a horrible year for Dunn. In '05 his RC was 109, in '04 111. If he could learn first he would be much more valuable, but we've got Hatte now and Votto in the pipeline.

I say we keep Dunn these two years. We're desperate for offense and the market is pricey. After getting contract year numbers from him I'm fine with letting him walk, even though I've always been pro-Dunn. He'll be 29 and looking for a LTC. Since he's destined to end up a DH or first baseman and Votto will be up then it seems an easy call. And if Krivsky is still the GM I can't imagine him locking up Dunn's 29-34 years.

by Red Menace on Nov 27, 2006 11:56 AM EST up reply actions  

and I forgot to add
Some metrics have Dunn not as bad as UZR. I'm thinking specifically about David Pinto's PMR. Dial had Dunn at -12 RS, better than Josh Williamham and Preston Wilson. It's a matter of degree. Nobody thinks Dunn is even average on D, but UZR is more pessimistic than other systems.

by Red Menace on Nov 27, 2006 12:00 PM EST up reply actions  

and I forgot to add
Thats true....rating defense is still rough justice...

The safest way is to get a consensus range using several metrics (i.e. Dunn is rated somewhere between -12 and -23 runs) or to split the middle and say Dunn is basically a -15 run defender in '06....

He's been consistently rated as a -1 to -2 win defender since '04.

by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 12:08 PM EST up reply actions  

and I forgot to add
Does it scare anyone that Dunn has regressed as he's entered into his prime years and he doesn't have the injury card to offer as an explanation?????

by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not overly concerned
because his "regression" from 2004 to 2005 was almost totally due to BABIP and his regression in 2006 was due to the atrocious Aug/Sept that he had.  I'm not trying to blow off those two months, but I'd be more concerned if he had struggled for more of the season, but he was very good until August came along.  And while I don't think it was totally luck, if you give Dunn just 7 more singles in Aug/Sept (boosting his BABIP for those 2 months to .300), his line for the season moves to .246/.375/.503.  His power was down - I think due to the fatigue of his first season on a competitive squad - but the other numbers are more in line with his career numbers.

by Slyde on Nov 27, 2006 1:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not overly concerned
yes, but you could argue that Aurilia was approaching a replacement level player if not for a few weeks in August and September...

Your point is well taken though-- Dunn could be his '05 or even '04 version next season.

I'm interested to know who his '06 effected Pecota's view of Dunn.

Anyway, this is good stuff....

by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

A clarification
Dunn is only owed $10.5 million.  The $13 million in 2008, which could escalate to $16 million through incentives, is a team option and doesn't have to be exercised.

by Slyde on Nov 27, 2006 1:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Uh, no.
AT BEST you can stick your thumb in the air, squint your eye, say "ehhhhhhhhhhhh" and guesstimate that when considering his offense and defense, Dunn was somehwere at or below the average leftfielder in the national league.

According to Win Shares (which at least all comes from the same source), Dunn was the #10 OF in the NL; among LF, he was behind Soriano's career year, Bonds, Bay, and Holliday.  Bay, no doubt, I'd rather have; Holliday is coming off his best year (by far), while Dunn is....not.  Ask me after '07 which I'd rather have.  Bonds is Bonds.  But Soriano?  Are you confident he'll have another year like last?  I'm not.

If you go by WS Above Base, which adjusts for playing time, Carlos Lee's career year also passes Dunn's worst.

I don't think it's a stretch at all to say that Dunn will be one of the two or three best LF in the NL next year (behind Bay and maybe Holliday), considering he was one of the 6 best during his terrible '06.

by sidnancy on Nov 27, 2006 3:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Uh, no.
If you consider defensive win shares to be superior to UZR or even PMR, well, we'll just have to agree to disagree.

by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 4:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Win Shares
The only way I think it's superior is that it comes from the same source.

I think all defensive stats that try to convert defensive plays into "runs" are very problematic.  I think combining "offensive runs" from one source with "defensive runs" from another (especially UZR, which uses special mojo calculations we aren't allowed to know) is asking for trouble.

Really - Dunn is 25 runs worse than average?  Think about it - he'd have to cost the Reds a run a week.  Do you really think he misplays/can't get to 2 balls a week that should be outs, and end up being doubles?  Or 3 singles?  A week?  If you like PMR, Pinto has Dunn as making 8 1/2 fewer outs than expected over the course of the season.  Does that sound like 20-25 runs to you?  Or even the 12 runs Chris Dial claims?

I also think people sometimes miss the forest for the trees.  Hitting is still much, much more valuable than fielding; all defensive metrics that try to equate to "runs", however, is going to seriously overestimate the value of defense.

by sidnancy on Nov 27, 2006 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

I should have said
He misplays/can't get to 2-3 more balls a week than the average LF, which is generally a pretty bad lot to begin with.

by sidnancy on Nov 27, 2006 5:02 PM EST up reply actions  

What to do...
  1. No. They do not have the resources to fill the hole that would put in the offense.
  2. While it would be nice to see Adam take a more situational approach at the plate. He's frustrated three managers and two hitting coaches and crashed and burned every time he's tried to change his approach to hitting. Let him be Adam and adjust the rest of the lineup around him. Batting him 6th or 7th with a light hitting infielder behing him just makes things worse. He needs to be up in the order where the pitcher has to pitch to him.
  3. For all of Dunn's vaunted athleticism, you don't see any of it on the baseball field. I don't know what to make of Adam's D. It isn't a matter of him not getting to balls. He gets to them and then turns on the iron glove. I would think it was just concentration related, but the only successfull outfielder larger than Dunn was Dave Winfield who was much quicker than Dunn. I have to think that the dude is just so big that he gets in his own way. Willie McCovey, Frank Howard all those type of guys ended up at first.
From the reds perspective, they pretty much have to keep him in left field. If I were Adam I would angle towards being traded to the DH league, but in this market he would have to make some serious concessions in order to get the reds to trade him.

by dfs on Nov 27, 2006 10:24 AM EST reply actions  

I think...
He might still be banned.

I can post in his stead, but remember, YAFI (You Asked For It)...

  1.  He should be traded for pocket lint and a bucket of baseballs.  He is not worth anything.  He is just like Dave Kingman and Rob Deer.  Juan Pierre would clearly be an upgrade at the same $10 million a year, as would Gary Matthews Jr., because they run out to their positions, are scrappy and play baseball the right way.  Dunn will never hit for high average, like Pierre or Matthews.  Dunn also lacks savvy, and he is clearly slow and stupid (even though he can steal bases), because he doesn't read books.  I think I would rather have Henry Kissinger playing the outfield because he is so well-read, and his senior thesis at Harvard was titled, "The Significance of Human History."
  2.  Dunn is hopeless defensively.  He is the equivalent of a life-size cardboard cutout.  He is clearly an AL player and would be of greater value to an AL team as a DH.  He is just like Rob Deer and Dave Kingman.  He lacks savvy, and he is slow and stupid, because he does not read books.
  3.  Dunn is hopeless on his strikeouts.  He has so many holes in his swing that even if he cut back on the power, he would still strikeout alot.  Nevertheless, he is such a selfish player that he wouldn't give up the homeruns to do it.  He is just like Rob Deer and Dave Kingman.  He lacks savvy, and he is slow and stupid, because he does not read books.
Also, if you want to know what Michael himself thinks, you can go over to the Reds.com message boards and look for him as "prose14."  That's where Gapper got his picture so you could photoshop Michael Dunn.
Little voices are people too.

by Mini Michael on Nov 27, 2006 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

did it months ago

not a clear face, i know.  it was a rush job.

winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Nov 27, 2006 4:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep...
That was pretty cool.  That's why I remembered Michael's reds.com ID.  I think Michael was scarred for weeks.
Don't mind me...just thinking positive and pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Nov 28, 2006 9:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Familiar
Because again, he was wrong, and touting someone who doesn't live up to his standards as well as Dunn does.

I replied to his post, and here's the gist:

Dunn has 198 career HRs; 52 (26.3%) have been hit with the score tied; another 47 (23.7%) with the Reds either up or down by 1 run - so exactly half have come with the score within a run. So even if you consider a 2 run game a "blowout", you're wrong. Further, 85 (42.9%) have either tied the score, or given the Reds the lead.

Also, while "Most of his homers come with no one on base" is true (113, 57.1%), the clutchest clutch of the clutches, David Ortiz and Derek Jeter, have hit 63.6% (147) and 67.8% (124) with the bases empty (they also have, respectively, either tied the score or given their team the lead 44.2% and 55.2% of the time). By the way, your boy Guillen is even less clutch than Dunn by your measures - fewer HRs tie or gave his team the lead, fewer with men on, fewer with RISP.

by sidnancy on Nov 28, 2006 8:43 AM EST up reply actions  

Familiar...
Because it is amazingly easy to mimic the guy.  He is like a band that only knows one song (and not even a very good one).
Little voices are people too.

by Mini Michael on Nov 28, 2006 9:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Salary issues
The free agent signings this year make trading Dunn even more complex than it was earlier.  No way the Reds can replace his productivity over the next two years for the salary he's going to get.  Probably no way he can be signed after two years if he does have two good ones--he'll be looking at least 16+ over several years.  But with the structure of his contract, any team we'd trade him to would be looking at a contract like that after one year.  In short, no way to get anything even close to reasonable value.  Might as well hold him for the two years and then recoup the salary.  2009 outfield I'm hoping for:  Votto (if he can play left), Bruce, Deno/Freel, with further possibles:  Dickerson, Strait, Stubbs etc.

by HokieRed on Nov 27, 2006 10:46 AM EST reply actions  

Dunns bat may not be easily replacable....
but if you get someone who can be even decent in the field, you dont have to replace all of Dunns offense, becuase you wont be allowing so many runs thanks to Dunns horrible defense. You still need to get some right handed power in the line up.
www.redsminorleagues.com

by dougdirt on Nov 27, 2006 11:12 AM EST reply actions  

A couple of thoughts
You are assuming that Dunn would have the same season as he did in 2006.  In fact, you are assuming that Dunn would have the same August/September as he had in 2006.  On August 1st, his batting line was .263/.393/.563 and then the wheels fell off.  His combined .652 OPS in Aug/Sept was the second worst of his career (skipping his shortened 2003).  Here are his OPS numbers for the last 2 months of each season of his career:
2001 - .981
2002 - .586
2003 - only 50 PA
2004 - .912
2005 - .822
2006 - .652

Personally, I look at the .258/.389/.557 line that he put up from April of 2004 thru July of 2006 and I am encouraged that the final numbers of 2006 were not indicative of what to expect in 2007.  Hell, even if you include the last 2 months of 2006, his combined line for the last 3 years is .249/.380/.533.  There ain't a lot that's wrong with that line.

Dunn may have been "break even" in 2006, but I think his true offensive level puts him about 15-20 runs up.  Considering the cost of the market today, I think it's a lot harder to replace Dunn than you think.

by Slyde on Nov 27, 2006 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

George Foster
I've got the 1975 World Series DVD, and I'm very gradually parceling it out to myself so that I can get through the offseason (and hopefully stave off cabin fever later on with Games 6 & 7).  Having watched the first two games thus far, I've heard the '75 announcers talk about George Foster in some of the same ways that present-day commentators talk about Adam Dunn.  Brutal LF defense, fine power.  I also saw him botch a play in front of the Green Monster that absolutely was Dunn-erific.

So is there any comparison there?  Foster hit for much better average and struck out less.  He also was less consistent power-wise, and apparently more injury-prone.

by DevilsAdvocate on Nov 27, 2006 11:43 AM EST reply actions  

Dunn
He will put up better numbers in these contract years coming up, might as well keep him for that, who knows, perhaps we will make a run this year, exercise our option, and shuffle him off for more than we could this year.
GO REDS!

by ewquinn on Nov 27, 2006 12:53 PM EST reply actions  

Defensive statistics
We're throwing around some defensive statistics around, so I thought it would good to bring some folk up to speed.

The USS Mariner had a great post explaining the various systems and where to find them. Just skip my post and read it. It's very thorough.

UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating "oozer") is by Michael Lictman (MGL). He works for the Cardinals now so he doesn't publish his work, but he'll occasionally mention some individual player's UZRs at Basebal Primer or at Blogging the Book. If you come across some of his numbers hang on to them.

Chris Dial does work based on Zone Rating (ZR can be found at ESPN among other places). His Dialed In is a great source of defensive discussion. It's also one of the few defensive metrics that are still freely available.

David Pinto's PMR (Probablistic Model of Range) is at www.baseballmusings.com. Here he looks at shortstops following the Alex Gonzalez signing.

Don't confuse PMR with Range Factor. Range Factor is a very old stat, and nowhere near as sophisticated as today's metrics.

TangoTiger has a Fan's Scouting Report which is great fun. Fans vote on players they have seen play a lot. It's subjective as hell, but the visitors to his site are more savvy than the average WLW listener, so there's something to it.

The Hardball Times publishes Win Shares, including defensive WS.

John Dewan publishes The Fielding Bible in February. Several Red Reporters had last year's edition, so if you don't pick up the book you can probably ask around here.

Baseball Prospectus has a system developed by Clay Davenport, but like most stats at BP the inner workings of it are rather secretive.

Fielding Percentage is worse than useless.

All the defensive stat gurus agree that you need a large sample size, several years preferably but at least two, to make strong conclusions.

Buster Olney had a really silly overview of defense on his blog not long ago (it's Insider so you have to pay for it--that's how good it is). If you have access check it out. It's kind of like those games on the back of kids' cereal boxes. "How many things are wrong with this picture?"

by Red Menace on Nov 27, 2006 1:00 PM EST reply actions  

Wiki that..
We should have all of the stat meanings in the Wiki..

by snohio on Nov 27, 2006 4:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Answering your questions
  1. Dunn shouldn't be traded right now.  The offense is a soft spot right now and trading Dunn will only increase that.  It wouldn't be such a problem (save for the fact that it is boring baseball to me), but the pitching is not good enough yet to be able to work with a weak offense.  The Reds still need to score a decent amount of runs to be successful.  If they are going to trade Dunn, I think they should wait until July, when I think teams will be a little more willing to spend to get a bat if they desperately need one.  Dunn would only be a rental player at that point, but teams pay for that kind of player all the time.  If the Reds can get a pretty good prospect for him then and Votto and Bruce progress well in 2007, I'm less worried about still having Dunn in 2008.
  2. Dunn's defense is terrible, but he plays left field.  That's where you stick terrible defenders with good bats.  I don't know if a better center fielder would help, but it sure would make the overall outfield defense look much better.
  3. I don't think the strikeouts are meaningless.  They are indicative of the type of game that he plays.  He works the count (over 20% of his career PAs have gone to a 3-2 count) and he has holes in his swing.  I think the strikeouts are inevitable.  I'm less concerned about how he makes outs though.  Because of his swing, I don't know if he could realistically cut down his strikeouts without completely altering his style of play.  I'm satisfied with the production that he puts up on a yearly basis, so I'm willing to take the strikeouts with that.

by Slyde on Nov 27, 2006 2:29 PM EST reply actions  

deadline deal
Is trading Dunn at the '08 deadline possible? I know the last year is voided if he's traded, but it doesn't make sense that he would become a FA in July.

by Red Menace on Nov 27, 2006 4:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Deadline deal
If he's traded at the deadline in 2007, the last year is voided and Dunn receives a $500k bonus/buyout.  If the Reds pick up the 2008 option, then Dunn gets a no-trade clause for that year.  So, they could trade him at the 2008 deadline, but it could be more difficult.

by Slyde on Nov 27, 2006 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

that's what I was thinking
He might accept a trade then if it's tied with a big contract extension, but I suppose if he's that close to free agency he'd want to test the full market.

by Red Menace on Nov 27, 2006 5:03 PM EST up reply actions  

My thoughts...
It occurs to me that those of us who frequent this site are of a very small minority of extremely well informed, somewhat insane Reds fans. The majority of fans out there have no idea what "VORP" even stands for and take the word of people like John Kruk and Orel "You can see it in their eyes" Hersheiser as gospel. I wonder what those people think about Adam Dunn.
As recently discussed, Dunn is now, in terms of actual games played, the Red with the most tenure on the team. It's Dunn's jersey that you see most commonly (or possibly second only to Griffey) at games. I think to a good many people out there, Adam Dunn is the face of Cincinnati baseball. Should that matter?
In my opinion, Krivsky should take great care in trading away his left fielder if that's what he decides to do. Don't merely look at the money, be sure to remember those fans out there who go to the games in their #44 jerseys and sit in the sun/moon deck hoping to catch one of Dunn's monster shots. There are a lot of Dunn fans, and they aren't going to turn around and buy Bubba Crosby unis if Dunn gets traded away.
Bottom line is this: We need a good return on Adam Dunn. I think it needs to be someone who can contribue right away, or no later than next season. I say hang onto him for now, see what's doing in July.
Reds fandom: A study in futility and masochism.

by Ash on Nov 27, 2006 4:37 PM EST reply actions  

I think Dunn is the most popular player
on the Reds in the eyes of the general vorpless public.  I like him.  I don't care about the strikeouts.  I believe he's going to have a good season next year.  
winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Nov 27, 2006 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

or...
winter is boooooooring

by Daedalus on Nov 27, 2006 5:01 PM EST up reply actions  

he's a controversial figure
A lot of his jerseys are sported and people love the homeruns, but there are also those who can't get past the low average and strikeouts. I think there would be mixed reactions if he were traded.

by Red Menace on Nov 27, 2006 5:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Dunn
  1.  Absolutely not.  The void option in his contract makes him twice as valuable to the Reds as he would be to any team acquiring him.  Players who approximate his production are making 70% more than his salary on the free agent market.  When you can't get proper value in return on the trade market, can't replace his production for the same price in free agency, and aren't dealing from a ridiculous surplus (which the Reds' offense clearly is not), you CANNOT trade the player.  I don't know why this is even a discussion, quite honestly.
  2.  I think he can certainly improve.  However, LF defense is not very important in the scheme of things (see Ramirez, Manny).  There's a far bigger defensive black hole immediately to Dunn's left that needs to be addressed before we worry about the defense in LF.
  3.  Virtually meaningless.  If Dunn can cut down on the strikeouts without losing his power, I would want him to do that.  However, because his strikeouts are the result of the same skill from which he derives most of his value (plate discipline), I don't suspect there's much he can do about it without a wholesale change in his approach.  That would be bad.  Note that his most productive season was the one in which he set the all-time single season strikeout record.
Oh, yeah.  BAT HIM THIRD, MORRON!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Karma - there it was. The meaning of life, straight from Carson Daly's lips to my morphine-laced ears." -Earl Hickey

by BLee2525 on Nov 27, 2006 7:00 PM EST reply actions  

Did you see...
That Adam is a new papa?  Just like Kearns last off-season, the unmarried Dunn has had a baby (a son).  Looks like the next stop is a trade to Washington for middle relief.

by Slyde on Nov 30, 2006 7:10 PM EST reply actions  

When the doctor handed Adam his kid
Did the baby clank off the heel of Adam's hand and fall to the ground?  And then the doctor ran to second?

by Brendanukkah on Nov 30, 2006 11:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I mean...
Congratulations to the proud papa.  Let's hope he doesn't follow Kearns out the door.  Was it a boy?  Did he name it Austin?

by Brendanukkah on Nov 30, 2006 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

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