Open Thread: Adam Dunn

Well, I had to do it eventually.
Adam Dunn is obviously the most controversial player on the Reds, and he didn't do anything to change that fact in 2006. He had probably his second worst season of his still young career, putting up a line of .234/.365/.490, not too far off his 2003 line of .215/.354/.465. He also put up the second highest strikeout total of his career, managing to K 194 times, one less than his career high.
With that said, there were certainly positives. His OBP is excellent, even in a down year. He hit the 40 home run mark for the third straight year, which is a remarkable feat, one that I don't think most Reds fan appreciate enough. He also walked over 100 times for the fourth time in his six season career (and 2001 and 2003 don't really count because he didn't play a full season either year). Dunn also is a gamer, coming to play nearly every day. He missed just two games in 2006, the third straight season he played in 160 or more games.
Sports fans tend to blame their favorite team's best player for what ails their team, a tendency I've never really understood. Many Reds fans have been perfectly willing to overlook Dunn's awesome power and plate discipline in favor of obsessing with his strikeouts, but I'm honestly not sure if this is a mark against Reds fans. There are probably very few fan bases in America that would appreciate what Adam Dunn brings to the table.
Questions to get the ball rolling with Dunn:
- Should Dunn be traded?
- Is Dunn's defense acceptable in left field? Is he made worse because of Ken Griffey Jr. in center or is he simply hopeless?
- What do you think about Adam Dunn's strikeouts? Are they meaningless, or should Dunn be working on cutting them down? Do you think a reduction in strikeouts carries with it a loss of power?
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Dunn
- Should he be traded? Yes.
- Is his defense acceptable in left field? No. He should be a designated hitter in the AL. He's hopeless on defense, whether Griffy's in center or not.
- Dunn's strikeouts? He'd have less K's if he were on an AL team with a huge offense.
So let's dangle Dunn out there and see what we can get. We're on the path to better pitching and better defense.
offense
Don't worry. They're not. To confidently say they'll have the worst offense in the division I'd have to check some Pirates' projections (and who wants to do that?), but they're at least behind the other four squads.
Better pitching?
With respect to better pitching, the Reds actually have an above average rotation. It's the bullpen that sucks, but you don't trade solid (much less irreplaceable, as described in the comments below) position players for relievers, unless the reliever is Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman in his prime...
Uh...wait...er...hmm...did the Reds do that at some point?
by Paul Householder on Nov 27, 2006 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Dunner
by rose2hall on Nov 26, 2006 11:11 PM EST reply actions
He is what he is
Some consistency would be nice
Dunn
Dunn is going to bring 40 HRs and he's going to get on base a lot. If the Reds would add some bats around him, we'd be in a good position to contend. That being said, it's going to be awfully hard to win anything w/out some upgrades and who knows if the Reds are going to commit to the necessary pay raises to make this happen.
I really think Dunn has taken way too much abuse from Reds fans. No he's not a 5 tool player, but how many guys are? The Reds failures in the past few years have nothing to do w/ Dunn and everything to do w/ the front office. If the Reds don't keep a competitive payroll, I don't see them ever contending on a consistent basis. It's depressing to see the other teams in the division upgrading themselves and all we see from the Reds is minor signings and continuous talk that they are going to trade one of the most prolific power hitters in the league. Ughh.
by JCH888 on Nov 27, 2006 12:14 AM EST reply actions
The Strikeouts don't matter.
Many Reds fans don't like how Dunn produces Runs. But in the grand scheme, he does produce them. There aren't many players like him...ever. Because of that, his value tends to be misunderstood. And to the questions:
- Dunn should be traded only if it will change the fortunes of the franchise. That means it needs to be a huge win for the Reds.
- Dunn isn't a good defensive Left Fielder. Not by a long shot. A better defensive Center Fielder would help, but a move to First Base would help more.
- Unless Dunn cut down on his K's by improving his two-strike hitting (which is his main weakness), the behavior that would most likely lead to a reduction in K's would also most likely reduce his Isolated Power (SLG minus BA) and Secondary Average. That's not a tradeoff I'd like to see in any situation other than two-strike hitting. And we need to realize that fewer K's don't necessarily result in fewer Hits. The real tradeoff is K's for Walks- not K's for Hits. The latter really never happens for a player like Dunn.
Take more/swing less and the result will be an increase in BA and a decrease in K's. Not because he'd get more Hits from a volume perspective, but because he'd reduce his AB due to the additional Walks he'd receive.
And the funny thing is that Dunn's most productive season (124.9 Runs Created) is also the year in which he set the MLB Strikeout record. If K's actually mattered, that couldn't have happened.
by Reds123 on Nov 27, 2006 1:36 AM EST reply actions
No; No; Cut 'em down
- I used to think Dunner should be traded; however, I agree with most of what has been said above. Don't see us getting any great return on him for what we could pay long term. Plus, look at what our team would look like without him. He helped carry this team quite a ways this year, even with his strike outs (Slyde, I'd appreciate some stats to back this up!). What I find interesting is that people talk about other prospects coming up or other players who are here now and none of them come close to Dunn's abilities, offensively. I certainly don't see Deno as an acceptable replacement in any way, shape or form.
- His defense is not acceptable. But it won't get any better. He's been here 6 years and I don't see any sea change coming soon. As said above, it is what it is. If he stays with us long term, I think after Hatteberg is gone, we try "The Experiment" again. He sure as hell doesn't look like he enjoys running around out there.
- I can't imagine anyone believing his strikeout numbers are acceptable. To be at nearly 1,000 strikeouts with only 6 years of service is downright embarrassing - except it's tempered with monster homers. I can't believe that a cut down in strikeouts would result in a considerable loss of power. He's a big boy. He knows what to do. But he really needs to cut 'em down. Enter Mr. Jacoby. Show us you're worth it, coach.
by NYRed on Nov 27, 2006 7:25 AM EST reply actions
Durability/Rest
Dunns defense.....
Except
- No one, even Mitchel Lichtman (who invented UZR), would ever say you can use 1 year's worth of data to come to any conclusions.
- '06 was a very bad year for Dunn; in '05, his VORP was 45.
- I would caution against comparing "runs" in one stat (VORP) devised/calculated by one person (Baseball Prospectus) using one set of stats (offensive) with another stat (UZR) devised/calculated by someone else (Lichtman) using another set of completely unrelated stats (defensive play by play) and calculated in a way you are not allowed to know (Lichtman's calculations are proprietary and secret). Especially since hits and outs may lead to runs, but aren't directly translatable (expecially on defense).
Except
Dunn's defense has consistently been rated below -20 via UZR since, well, Dunn became a major leaguer. There isn't a play-by-play metric that suggests Dunn has gotten better defensively since '04. He's basically flatlined (scary because defense ages badly). Anyway, what's a better way to evaluate his defense?
And for the record, while UZR data is now essentially owned by the Cards, Lichtman's methodology is not secret. In fact he waxes poetic about it in sabermetric newsgroups (where by the way he occasionally releases data for players during the course of a discussion). Dunn's '06 UZR has indeed been released as -23 runs. If you want to ding a system for being secret and unvetted consider Davenport's defensive ratings...
Now for his offense... Alright, lets ignore VORP. THT reports Dunn had 98 RC in '06. The average leftfielder in the NL during '06 had 92 RC (assuming 600 PA). I doubt anyone would consider Dunn to be league average defensively. So completely ignoring an actual value for his defense, its intuitive that his 6 run advantage over a league average leftfielder just vaporized. AT BEST you can stick your thumb in the air, squint your eye, say "ehhhhhhhhhhhh" and guesstimate that when considering his offense and defense, Dunn was somehwere at or below the average leftfielder in the national league. Using tools that are accepted by the sabermetric community, Doug is right, Dunn's '06 was absolutely ugly.
Now go try and trade him and the $23M owed him for '07 and '08.
by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
couple points
Like sid said, '06 ended up being a horrible year for Dunn. In '05 his RC was 109, in '04 111. If he could learn first he would be much more valuable, but we've got Hatte now and Votto in the pipeline.
I say we keep Dunn these two years. We're desperate for offense and the market is pricey. After getting contract year numbers from him I'm fine with letting him walk, even though I've always been pro-Dunn. He'll be 29 and looking for a LTC. Since he's destined to end up a DH or first baseman and Votto will be up then it seems an easy call. And if Krivsky is still the GM I can't imagine him locking up Dunn's 29-34 years.
and I forgot to add
and I forgot to add
The safest way is to get a consensus range using several metrics (i.e. Dunn is rated somewhere between -12 and -23 runs) or to split the middle and say Dunn is basically a -15 run defender in '06....
He's been consistently rated as a -1 to -2 win defender since '04.
by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
and I forgot to add
by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not overly concerned
I'm not overly concerned
Your point is well taken though-- Dunn could be his '05 or even '04 version next season.
I'm interested to know who his '06 effected Pecota's view of Dunn.
Anyway, this is good stuff....
by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
A clarification
Uh, no.
According to Win Shares (which at least all comes from the same source), Dunn was the #10 OF in the NL; among LF, he was behind Soriano's career year, Bonds, Bay, and Holliday. Bay, no doubt, I'd rather have; Holliday is coming off his best year (by far), while Dunn is....not. Ask me after '07 which I'd rather have. Bonds is Bonds. But Soriano? Are you confident he'll have another year like last? I'm not.
If you go by WS Above Base, which adjusts for playing time, Carlos Lee's career year also passes Dunn's worst.
I don't think it's a stretch at all to say that Dunn will be one of the two or three best LF in the NL next year (behind Bay and maybe Holliday), considering he was one of the 6 best during his terrible '06.
Uh, no.
by JoJo on Nov 27, 2006 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Win Shares
I think all defensive stats that try to convert defensive plays into "runs" are very problematic. I think combining "offensive runs" from one source with "defensive runs" from another (especially UZR, which uses special mojo calculations we aren't allowed to know) is asking for trouble.
Really - Dunn is 25 runs worse than average? Think about it - he'd have to cost the Reds a run a week. Do you really think he misplays/can't get to 2 balls a week that should be outs, and end up being doubles? Or 3 singles? A week? If you like PMR, Pinto has Dunn as making 8 1/2 fewer outs than expected over the course of the season. Does that sound like 20-25 runs to you? Or even the 12 runs Chris Dial claims?
I also think people sometimes miss the forest for the trees. Hitting is still much, much more valuable than fielding; all defensive metrics that try to equate to "runs", however, is going to seriously overestimate the value of defense.
I should have said
What to do...
- No. They do not have the resources to fill the hole that would put in the offense.
- While it would be nice to see Adam take a more situational approach at the plate. He's frustrated three managers and two hitting coaches and crashed and burned every time he's tried to change his approach to hitting. Let him be Adam and adjust the rest of the lineup around him. Batting him 6th or 7th with a light hitting infielder behing him just makes things worse. He needs to be up in the order where the pitcher has to pitch to him.
- For all of Dunn's vaunted athleticism, you don't see any of it on the baseball field. I don't know what to make of Adam's D. It isn't a matter of him not getting to balls. He gets to them and then turns on the iron glove. I would think it was just concentration related, but the only successfull outfielder larger than Dunn was Dave Winfield who was much quicker than Dunn. I have to think that the dude is just so big that he gets in his own way. Willie McCovey, Frank Howard all those type of guys ended up at first.
by dfs on Nov 27, 2006 10:24 AM EST reply actions
I think...
I can post in his stead, but remember, YAFI (You Asked For It)...
- He should be traded for pocket lint and a bucket of baseballs. He is not worth anything. He is just like Dave Kingman and Rob Deer. Juan Pierre would clearly be an upgrade at the same $10 million a year, as would Gary Matthews Jr., because they run out to their positions, are scrappy and play baseball the right way. Dunn will never hit for high average, like Pierre or Matthews. Dunn also lacks savvy, and he is clearly slow and stupid (even though he can steal bases), because he doesn't read books. I think I would rather have Henry Kissinger playing the outfield because he is so well-read, and his senior thesis at Harvard was titled, "The Significance of Human History."
- Dunn is hopeless defensively. He is the equivalent of a life-size cardboard cutout. He is clearly an AL player and would be of greater value to an AL team as a DH. He is just like Rob Deer and Dave Kingman. He lacks savvy, and he is slow and stupid, because he does not read books.
- Dunn is hopeless on his strikeouts. He has so many holes in his swing that even if he cut back on the power, he would still strikeout alot. Nevertheless, he is such a selfish player that he wouldn't give up the homeruns to do it. He is just like Rob Deer and Dave Kingman. He lacks savvy, and he is slow and stupid, because he does not read books.
by Mini Michael on Nov 27, 2006 11:05 AM EST up reply actions
Yep...
by Paul Householder on Nov 28, 2006 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
Familiar
I replied to his post, and here's the gist:
Dunn has 198 career HRs; 52 (26.3%) have been hit with the score tied; another 47 (23.7%) with the Reds either up or down by 1 run - so exactly half have come with the score within a run. So even if you consider a 2 run game a "blowout", you're wrong. Further, 85 (42.9%) have either tied the score, or given the Reds the lead.
Also, while "Most of his homers come with no one on base" is true (113, 57.1%), the clutchest clutch of the clutches, David Ortiz and Derek Jeter, have hit 63.6% (147) and 67.8% (124) with the bases empty (they also have, respectively, either tied the score or given their team the lead 44.2% and 55.2% of the time). By the way, your boy Guillen is even less clutch than Dunn by your measures - fewer HRs tie or gave his team the lead, fewer with men on, fewer with RISP.
Familiar...
by Mini Michael on Nov 28, 2006 9:22 AM EST up reply actions
Salary issues
by HokieRed on Nov 27, 2006 10:46 AM EST reply actions
Dunns bat may not be easily replacable....
A couple of thoughts
2001 - .981
2002 - .586
2003 - only 50 PA
2004 - .912
2005 - .822
2006 - .652
Personally, I look at the .258/.389/.557 line that he put up from April of 2004 thru July of 2006 and I am encouraged that the final numbers of 2006 were not indicative of what to expect in 2007. Hell, even if you include the last 2 months of 2006, his combined line for the last 3 years is .249/.380/.533. There ain't a lot that's wrong with that line.
Dunn may have been "break even" in 2006, but I think his true offensive level puts him about 15-20 runs up. Considering the cost of the market today, I think it's a lot harder to replace Dunn than you think.
George Foster
So is there any comparison there? Foster hit for much better average and struck out less. He also was less consistent power-wise, and apparently more injury-prone.
by DevilsAdvocate on Nov 27, 2006 11:43 AM EST reply actions
Dunn
by ewquinn on Nov 27, 2006 12:53 PM EST reply actions
Defensive statistics
The USS Mariner had a great post explaining the various systems and where to find them. Just skip my post and read it. It's very thorough.
UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating "oozer") is by Michael Lictman (MGL). He works for the Cardinals now so he doesn't publish his work, but he'll occasionally mention some individual player's UZRs at Basebal Primer or at Blogging the Book. If you come across some of his numbers hang on to them.
Chris Dial does work based on Zone Rating (ZR can be found at ESPN among other places). His Dialed In is a great source of defensive discussion. It's also one of the few defensive metrics that are still freely available.
David Pinto's PMR (Probablistic Model of Range) is at www.baseballmusings.com. Here he looks at shortstops following the Alex Gonzalez signing.
Don't confuse PMR with Range Factor. Range Factor is a very old stat, and nowhere near as sophisticated as today's metrics.
TangoTiger has a Fan's Scouting Report which is great fun. Fans vote on players they have seen play a lot. It's subjective as hell, but the visitors to his site are more savvy than the average WLW listener, so there's something to it.
The Hardball Times publishes Win Shares, including defensive WS.
John Dewan publishes The Fielding Bible in February. Several Red Reporters had last year's edition, so if you don't pick up the book you can probably ask around here.
Baseball Prospectus has a system developed by Clay Davenport, but like most stats at BP the inner workings of it are rather secretive.
Fielding Percentage is worse than useless.
All the defensive stat gurus agree that you need a large sample size, several years preferably but at least two, to make strong conclusions.
Buster Olney had a really silly overview of defense on his blog not long ago (it's Insider so you have to pay for it--that's how good it is). If you have access check it out. It's kind of like those games on the back of kids' cereal boxes. "How many things are wrong with this picture?"
Answering your questions
- Dunn shouldn't be traded right now. The offense is a soft spot right now and trading Dunn will only increase that. It wouldn't be such a problem (save for the fact that it is boring baseball to me), but the pitching is not good enough yet to be able to work with a weak offense. The Reds still need to score a decent amount of runs to be successful. If they are going to trade Dunn, I think they should wait until July, when I think teams will be a little more willing to spend to get a bat if they desperately need one. Dunn would only be a rental player at that point, but teams pay for that kind of player all the time. If the Reds can get a pretty good prospect for him then and Votto and Bruce progress well in 2007, I'm less worried about still having Dunn in 2008.
- Dunn's defense is terrible, but he plays left field. That's where you stick terrible defenders with good bats. I don't know if a better center fielder would help, but it sure would make the overall outfield defense look much better.
- I don't think the strikeouts are meaningless. They are indicative of the type of game that he plays. He works the count (over 20% of his career PAs have gone to a 3-2 count) and he has holes in his swing. I think the strikeouts are inevitable. I'm less concerned about how he makes outs though. Because of his swing, I don't know if he could realistically cut down his strikeouts without completely altering his style of play. I'm satisfied with the production that he puts up on a yearly basis, so I'm willing to take the strikeouts with that.
deadline deal
Deadline deal
that's what I was thinking
My thoughts...
As recently discussed, Dunn is now, in terms of actual games played, the Red with the most tenure on the team. It's Dunn's jersey that you see most commonly (or possibly second only to Griffey) at games. I think to a good many people out there, Adam Dunn is the face of Cincinnati baseball. Should that matter?
In my opinion, Krivsky should take great care in trading away his left fielder if that's what he decides to do. Don't merely look at the money, be sure to remember those fans out there who go to the games in their #44 jerseys and sit in the sun/moon deck hoping to catch one of Dunn's monster shots. There are a lot of Dunn fans, and they aren't going to turn around and buy Bubba Crosby unis if Dunn gets traded away.
Bottom line is this: We need a good return on Adam Dunn. I think it needs to be someone who can contribue right away, or no later than next season. I say hang onto him for now, see what's doing in July.
I think Dunn is the most popular player
he's a controversial figure
Dunn
- Absolutely not. The void option in his contract makes him twice as valuable to the Reds as he would be to any team acquiring him. Players who approximate his production are making 70% more than his salary on the free agent market. When you can't get proper value in return on the trade market, can't replace his production for the same price in free agency, and aren't dealing from a ridiculous surplus (which the Reds' offense clearly is not), you CANNOT trade the player. I don't know why this is even a discussion, quite honestly.
- I think he can certainly improve. However, LF defense is not very important in the scheme of things (see Ramirez, Manny). There's a far bigger defensive black hole immediately to Dunn's left that needs to be addressed before we worry about the defense in LF.
- Virtually meaningless. If Dunn can cut down on the strikeouts without losing his power, I would want him to do that. However, because his strikeouts are the result of the same skill from which he derives most of his value (plate discipline), I don't suspect there's much he can do about it without a wholesale change in his approach. That would be bad. Note that his most productive season was the one in which he set the all-time single season strikeout record.
Did you see...
When the doctor handed Adam his kid
by Brendanukkah on Nov 30, 2006 11:39 PM EST up reply actions
I mean...
by Brendanukkah on Nov 30, 2006 11:40 PM EST up reply actions

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