Who's the NL MVP?

by Red Menace on Oct 4, 2006 8:43 PM EDT

Red Reporters, make your voices heard! I won't bother listing any stats. You know where to find them and you know who these guys are. Also I'll hold off giving my opinion since I would surely sway everyone with my brilliant rhetoric and ruin the already tenuous scientificness of the poll.

And I need to type more. The outlook wasn't brilliant for the Mudville nine that day / the score stood four to two with but one inning left to play.

Poll

2006 NL MVP

Other (specify)

1 votes

Carlos Beltran

4 votes

Lance Berkman

2 votes

Miguel Cabrera

0 votes

Ryan Howard

24 votes

Alfonso Soriano

1 votes

Albert Pujols

28 votes

David Wright

0 votes

60 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

SB MVP Vote

JD, I think I remember an article at Beyond the Boxscore saying site owners would all vote for some sort of SB Nation awards. Is this right?

by Red Menace on Oct 4, 2006 9:59 PM EDT reply actions

Yep

That should be released any day now. I'll have a post up on it then.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars. --Oscar Wilde

by JD Arney on Oct 5, 2006 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Other

My vote is for Matt Holliday. He definitely isnt the best out of that list but I really think he deserves some R-E-S-P-E-C-T.
Avg. .326 5th in NL
Obp. .387 24th in NL
Slg. .586 5th in NL
OPS. .973 7th in NL
Runs 119 5th in NL
RBI 114 9th in NL
Total bases 353 4th in NL
Hits 196 7th in NL
Doubles 45 9th in NL
XBH 84 2nd in NL
Runs Created 132 6th in NL

Then throw in 10 stolen bases and 34 home runs
(oh yeah if you think its all due to Coors, his ops+ [park adjusted] is 139 good for 7th best). His biggest downfall is unstellar batting w/RISP,hitting into too many double plays, and K'ing quite a bit. Still being able to put up the numbers he has deserves a mention. I havent heard much of any press about him all year.

by Stevo154 on Oct 5, 2006 12:50 AM EDT reply actions

Now I'll unleash the righteous fury of my opinion!

I think it's pretty clearly Beltran and I'm disappointed by the total silence in the media regarding his candidacy. It makes me feel like only I care about defense.

Win Shares
Pujols 39
Beltran 38
Berkman 34
Cabrera 34
Wright 32
Howard 31
Soriano 30
...
Holliday 22

Adjusting for position really hurts Howard. Big offensive production is just worth so much more at centerfield than first base.

Win Shares Above Baseline
Beltran 27
Pujols 26
Berkman 21
Cabrera 21
Wright 19
Bonds 18
Howard 18

Pujols and Howard had monster seasons and it wouldn't be a tragedy if either won. It just seems we're not moving forward with the understanding of park effects and defensive value.

OPS
Pujols 1.102
Howard 1.084
Beltran .982

Runs Created
Pujols 150
Howard 137
Beltran 125

So Beltran has some ground to make up with his glove. However those differences aren't so great win you factor in baserunning and park effects.

Beltran stole 18 bases at an amazing 85.7% success rate.
Pujols is no slouch--7 at 77.8%
Howard didn't attempt a steal.

Shea Stadium ranked 14th in run scoring.
Citizen's Bank: 5th New Busch: 11th

Hence Beltran's splits:
Home .224/.368/.487 15HR
Away .317/.406/.683 26HR

This is why some metrics show Beltran producing more offense than Howard.

Batting Win Shares
Pujols 36.3
Beltran 30.0
Howard 29.8

And then we get to defense where the top centerfielder blows away first basemen.

Fielding Win Shares
Beltran 8.3
Pujols 2.4
Howard 1.2

A lot of defensive metrics like UZR are proprietary and haven't been released yet, but here's Chris Dial's Runs Saved per 150 games as of late August. It's a rate stat so I wouldn't expect it to change much.

RS/150
Beltran 16
Pujols 1
Howard -1

If you don't care for fancy defensive metrics, Beltran has made 2 errors all year. I conclude that Beltran topped Howard pretty handily. Pujols is closer but I'd still give it to the best player on the best team this year. I agree with Marc Normandin at BeyondtheBoxscore.

So there you go really; if you want the best overall player, you can't be faulted for picking either Albert Pujols or Carlos Beltran. If you prefer to use the convoluted "best player on a fringe contending team that wouldn't be where it was without the help of said star", then you have Miguel Cabrera. What you don't have is the guy leading the league in RBI and homeruns, and I don't think I really should have to get into why that doesn't matter.

by Red Menace on Oct 5, 2006 1:52 AM EDT reply actions

there you go with your park effects again

so soriano would have hit 80 homers if he weren't in a nationals uniform?

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Oct 5, 2006 9:36 AM EDT up reply actions

nah

but maybe 50. It's amazing how many home runs he hit in RFK this year (24 in 78 games compared to 22 in 81 road games). The second most on the team at home was 10, and the most in 2005 was 8. Some of that difference is talent, but there were also 15% fewer home runs hit in RFK this season than in the Nationals road games. That's pretty significant.

All I can say is, Soriano must have been one motivated dude this year because he had himself a helluva season, easily the best of his career. I'm not sure I'd want to be the team signing his checks next year though.

by Slyde on Oct 5, 2006 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

OTHER: Ryan Franklin.

The man single-handedly won the NL Central for the Cards.

More, more, more ....... how do you like it?

by Gapper on Oct 5, 2006 2:35 AM EDT reply actions

but

i think he had some help from royce clayton.

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Oct 5, 2006 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Pujols

Not that this is the ultimate factor in my decision, but the Mets are in the playoffs even without Beltran. The Cards are somewhere around Pirate territory without Pujols. To me, it's between Pujols and Howard, but I take Pujols.

by greg456 on Oct 5, 2006 8:42 AM EDT reply actions

That's the argument

Yeah, that's the idea that's prevalent right now. I just really don't like it. It's the reasoning that sent Jayson Stark on that bizarre Shannon Stewart for MVP campaign a few years ago.

The Cards only won by 1.5 games, so if you take away any impact player they don't make the playoffs. This argument essentially gives Pujols extra credit because they lost 8 in a row down the stretch. And I don't like punishing Beltran just because Minaya did a better job of surrounding him with talent. Also his 38 win shares suggests the Mets would be in a dog fight with the Phillies without him.

I assume this means you're not a supporter of Jeter in the AL. Hell, with this line of thinking the MVPs wouldn't have gone to Foster, Morgan, Pete and Johnny in the '70s. Baseball history suggest MVPs frequently go to the best player on the best team. It also suggests a slugger who doesn't bring much to the table defensively usually doesn't fare well except for years in which he completely laps the field (Ted Williams, Freaky Bonds) and that hasn't happened here.

And a very small item of consideration: Pujols won last year. The Mets have never had an MVP.

by Red Menace on Oct 5, 2006 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

my criteria for Most Valuable Player

Oddly enough, it's who's most valuable to his team. I see that person as Pujols. He's pretty much like clockwork. When the Reds were making their push and the Cards were reeling, I remember thinking, "I bet Pujols hits a huge bomb in a clutch situation tonight and ends the losing streak." Sure enough, he did. He just seems to do that a lot. I don't think any team in baseball relies on one player as much as the Cards rely on Pujols.

Just my opinion.

by greg456 on Oct 5, 2006 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

very true

without pujols, the cardinals would have been third or fourth in the league, and only that high because they have carpenter.

they really are an awful team, aren't they?

"The players make the manager, it's never the other way." ~ Sparky Anderson

by Daedalus on Oct 5, 2006 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

that's fine

Pujols and Beltran are are so close I don't have a problem with either choice, although I think Howard is a bit behind. Would you have supported Joe Morgan in 1976 though? Or Lou Gehrig in '36? Can a team that wins their division by 10+ games have an MVP?

I put an AL poll up now.

by Red Menace on Oct 5, 2006 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions

morgan

i wasn't even alive in '76, quite unfortunately. sure wish i was. well...maybe not, cuz then i'd be almost 40, at least, so...guess i'm good.

anyway, it would be hard for me to say, when i never actually saw morgan play. i can't judge everything by the numbers.

by the way, i'm a big beltran fan. i liked him when he was with the royals even...back when only 3 maybe 4 people knew he existed. i just think pujols is far more valuable. (a 7-game cards/mets series would probably go to the mets...take out beltran/pujols, and the mets probably sweep the series. that's not scientific, but it's the way i'm seeing things)

by greg456 on Oct 5, 2006 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions

75

I should have said 75 instead of 76. It's a better example. The Reds won their division by 20 games. In the East Pittsburgh beat Philly by 6.5. I wasn't alive either by it seems safe to say that you could take Morgan out and the Reds would still make the playoffs. After all there were two other Reds in the top 5 of MVP voting (Bench and Rose).

My point is this take-the-player-out argument is not consistent with what the MVP has traditionally meant. If it were prevalent back then Dave Parker or Willie Stargell would have won for Pittsburgh.

by Red Menace on Oct 5, 2006 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Good Lord

I was gonna make a case for Howard single-handedly keeping the Phillies in the race after the trading deadline white-flag fire sale. But now I just feel old. I was alive in '75 and '76. Morgan was a deserving MVP, and was rightfully not punished for playing on a team with other good players.
Now if you'll forgive me, I have to take my Metamucil and yell at some kids to get the hell off of my lawn...

by ctnyc on Oct 5, 2006 11:25 PM EDT reply actions