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Useless research on a Friday

This is going to be a random one.  

Part One:
While doing some Adam Dunn numbers research, I came across the list of comparable hitters at baseball-reference.com.  Number one on the list is Reggie Jackson.  So I went over to Reggie's stats to look at his comparables, which is comprised of some interesting characters.  

Similar Batters:
Rafael Palmeiro (842)
Frank Robinson (836) *
Mike Schmidt (819) *
Fred McGriff (807)
Dave Winfield (797) *
Harmon Killebrew (795) *
Ernie Banks (792) *
Andre Dawson (792)
Dwight Evans (792)
Willie McCovey (791) *

Look at all of those Hall of Famers, near-misses, and would've-ve-beens-if-not-for-steroids.  Reggie is himself, of course, a Famer too.  Then I looked at the list of most similar by age:

Most Similar By Age:
22. Pat Seerey (963)  
23-4. Darryl Strawberry (975)  
25. Willie Horton (943)  
26-7. Roger Maris (954)  
28. Dale Murphy (948)  
29-30. Darryl Strawberry (951)
31-5. Dale Murphy (949)
36. Jose Canseco (903)  
37-40. Fred McGriff (885)  
41. Dave Winfield (819)

This time, a bunch of near-misses (Murphy, Maris) and jerk-offs (Strawberry, Canseco) before finally having a HOF'er comparable in Winfield.  Not much of a point here, but can anyone explain the equation that comes up with these names?

Part Deux.
Reggie played his last game in Oakland, October 4, 1987.  Check out the list of others who played their last game in 1987.  (Count the managers while you're at it):
Buddy Biancalana
Bruce Bochy
Ron Cey (The Penguin!)
Cecil Cooper
Dan Driessen
Steve Garvey
Paul Householder
Tome Hume
Clint Hurdle
Johnny LeMaster (more on him below . . .)
Davey Lopes
Aurelio Lopez (only makes the list because my dad used to call him El Lardo Lopez . . but the joke lost its luster after "Senior Smoke" was  killed in a car accident in 1992)
Bill Madlock
Gary Matthews
Len Matuszek (Why does this name stick out to me? Did he do some broadcasting somewhere?)
Hal McRae
Jerry Narron
Phil Niekro
Bob "Stop Calling Me" Shirley (from the '82 Reds!)
Roy Smalley (My first glove was a Roy Smalley signature . . a Spauling, I think)
Dave Van Gorder
Tom Waddell (from Scotland, not to be confused with Tom Waddle from Moeller HS)
U L Washington
Alan "Calista" Wiggins (6'2" 160 lbs!)

Okay, a couple words about Johnnie LeMaster.  How does someone turn a .222 carer batting average into an eleven year career (he didn't play in '86)?  Must be slick-fielding shorstop right?  That's what I thought, but it turns out he had a .961 career fielding percentage!  

Johnnie LeMaster Comparables?

  1. Bobby Wine, who also played his last game in 1987
  2. Jose Uribe, who not surprisingly succeeded LeMaster as the Giants' shortstop.  And what an improvement!

0 recs  |  Comment 10 comments

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hmmm....
funny you posted that Brian...seriously ;)

Because I did some of the same research today but didn't bother to post it. I was researching a post to you about how OPS alone can distort. Take a trip out to Baseball.reference.com again when you get a chance and compare my fave player Dunn to Pujols.

Of course, I don't think even Dunn's most loyal fans would try to say Dunn is the equal of Pujols (well actually some over in Redszone would) but what was interesting was that the third most similar batter to Pujols was CARLOS LEE.

I concluded at least Baseball-Reference.com is hip to the fact that OPS and OPS alone is not a good guide to describing hitters and hitter appraisal.

Dunn is 62 points higher in career OPS (thru 2004) than Carlos Lee. But Lee is the one who is third on the list of most similar batters to arguably best hitter in baseball.

Lee has almost 40 points in batting average over Dunn and projects higher in doubles each year. But Dunn makes his hay and gains 60+ points in OPS based solely on homeruns and BBs........

I was encouraged to see that baseball reference did in fact go with truly similar batters on the dunn list (wilkerson, trammel, wilson, burrel, bo jackson, velez.......) and didn't play OPS games and base its comparisons on OPS.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 16, 2005 9:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Similarity Score
If you read on B-R.com, you'll see that similarity score only has a limited amount to do with OPS, but looks at a bunch of counting stats and a couple of percentages.  So that you don't have to go anywhere to read it, here is what it says:
Similarity scores are not my concept. Bill James introduced them nearly 15 years ago, and I lifted his methodology from his book The Politics of Glory (p. 86-106). To compare one player to another, start at 1000 points and then you subtract points based on the statistical differences of each player.
Batters

    * One point for each difference of 20 games played.
    * One point for each difference of 75 at bats.
    * One point for each difference of 10 runs scored.
    * One point for each difference of 15 hits.
    * One point for each difference of 5 doubles.
    * One point for each difference of 4 triples.
    * One point for each difference of 2 home runs.
    * One point for each difference of 10 RBI.
    * One point for each difference of 25 walks.
    * One point for each difference of 150 strikeouts.
    * One point for each difference of 20 stolen bases.
    * One point for each difference of .001 in batting average.
    * One point for each difference of .002 in slugging percentage.

To this there is a positional adjustment. Each position has a value, and you subtract the difference between the two players position. James just uses primary position, but I computed an average position for players who had more than one primary position. (See Ernie Banks)

    * 240 - Catcher
    * 168 - Shortstop
    * 132 - Second Base
    * 84 - Third Base
    * 48 - Outfield (James distinguishes, but I don't have that data incorporated at the moment)
    * 12 - First Base
    * 0 - DH

The reason that Carlos Lee is the 3rd most similar batter is because he is 4 years older than Pujols and has been playing longer.  I would not put Lee in the same class as Pujols, nor would I put Geoff Jenkins there (his number 2 most similar).  In fact, I really only look at similarity score by age if I ever look at it for someone that is still playing.  For instance, Kevin Millar is Pujols 8th most similar batter?  But oh boy does Pujols have a nice list of similar by age.

Either way, even Bill James admits that it is just a toy.  It's a fun way of looking at players and comparing them to the past, but it doesn't do anything about adjusting for eras or parks.  It's a nice way to start an argument, but it shouldn't be used to end one.

And as for your aversion to OPS.  I hope you realize that no one believes it to be the tell all stat.  The beauty of OPS is its simplicity for calculation.  It tells a lot about a player in one simple number, but obviously it doesn't tell you everything.  However, if I know that I have a player with a .950 OPS and that's all I know, well, I can take a pretty good guess that it's a player that I want on my team.

by Slyde on Sep 16, 2005 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

ops...
well clearly you are one who does appear to put OPS in proper perspective "The beauty of OPS is its simplicity for calculation.  It tells a lot about a player in one simple number, but obviously it doesn't tell you everything."

There are plenty out there who are as OPS-driven with their appraisals as Dunn's OBP is BB-driven.  

As frustrating as I'm sure you find it at times to debate with people who want to drive arguments solely on batting avg. it is every bit as frustrating to read OPS arguments which imply that OPS is all that matters.

On a not totally unrelated note, what is your position on the Runs Created Formula?

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 17, 2005 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Class of '87
I used to play APBA baseball as a kid, and Brian's  list just brought back a bunch of memories of some of my favorite players:

Buddy Biancalana - his name is fun to say.

Bruce Bochy - always got him confused with Bruce Bochte

Johnny LeMaster - that's french for The Master.

Len Matuszek - I always liked players with 'Z's in their names.  And yes, I think he was a broadcaster for a while.

Jerry Narron - I always dreamed that some day he would be the Reds manager.

Roy Smalley  - another one of my favorite names

Dave Van Gorder - again a great name.

U L Washington - gotta love the toothpick.

Alan Wiggins - for some reason, I always was a big fan of Wiggins.  I guess that's because stolen bases were big in the 80s.  Not so much these days.

by Slyde on Sep 16, 2005 10:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Buddy
I started collecting baseball cards in 1985.  Tops sold the 15 card wax packs and a clear plastic pack of about 50 cards.  The Biancalana card I'll always remember because of the name.  But his picture shows a tall lanky white guy weakly tilting the bat backwards as if he's barely able to hold it.  Sadly, a .205 career batting average is a fitting caption to the photo.  

Biancalana was traded away from the Royals in 1987 to the Astros for Mel Stottlemeyer.  Huh?  No, no . . Mel Stottlemeyer, Jr., who was the first round pick (3rd overall!) in 1985.  He made it to the majors for 13 games in 1990.  His brother Todd was a different story.  Buddy was out of the game at the end of the '87 season at age 27.  

I also didn't list that Garth Iorg ended his career in 1987.  I had Garth's '85 card as well as his brother Dane's.  I didn't realize they weren't the same guy until years later.  

But my favorite 1985 card was Rusty Kuntz . . . 20 years later and the name still cracks me up.

Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 16, 2005 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Names from the past
Ah, Dane and Garth Iorg.  Always had to have them on the same team with Kent Hrbek, so they would balance each other out alphabet wise.

Wasn't Buddy Biancalana on David Letterman once?  That was another reason I liked him.  I only got to watch Letterman occasionally during the summer, but I loved it when he talked about baseball players.  He always made fun of Terry "Fat Tub of Goo" Forster too.  That was great!

Rusty Kuntz and Dick Pole are the two dirtiest names in baseball - at least least in my lifetime.  Isn't Kuntz a pitching coach now for like DC or somebody?

A bit of trivia from 1987...the Reds had 3 All Stars that year, name them.

by Slyde on Sep 16, 2005 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

All Stars
Off-hand, I'll say Davis, Daniels, and Franco.  
Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 17, 2005 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Almost
2 out of 3....Davis and Franco

The other is Bo Diaz...yup, Bo Diaz.

We used to always say his name as if it were one word Bodiaz.  It's amazing the crap that sticks with you.

by Slyde on Sep 17, 2005 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Bo Diaz
I still remember the radio report of his death.  Bo Diaz was electrocuted and killed while installing a satellite dish on his roof in Venezuela.  I don't remember if the equipment shocked him or if he was struck by lightening.  He was just 47.

Diaz was obtained in a trade for Alan Knicely (so that's what happened to him!).  Knicely made the Enquirer's sports editor's job so easy, didn't he?  I wonder how many "nicely" puns were used compared to the number of times "it's in the Cards" was used for the Cardinals during the same period.

Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 17, 2005 6:30 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dick Pole
Bench coach for the Cubs!
Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 17, 2005 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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