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Player Evaluations (EE and others)

This is getting comical. I'm just a working stiff computer grunt. I don't have a Dan O'Brien expense account and no chief Bender scout of the year awards etc......but I saw this EE hitting struggles from a mile away - AND it was NOT something that had to be worked out at mlb level.

We've seen it with Larson, Dunn, Pena (and others those 3 just happened to be the most visible, recent and best examples.) and now EE .............

Just because you can put up some numbers in the minors if you have shortcomings with basic hitting fundamentals those will more than likely be exposed at major league level. How many dead pull "power" hitters will we have to see brought up to the bigs only to see their numbers fall off considerably because THEY DON'T USE THE WHOLE FIELD ? ? ? ? CINCINNATI - - -  HAVEN FOR DEAD PULL HITTERS.......

Look EE may become a solid major leaguer. There have been plenty of third baseman who have done worse than 9 errors in first 43 games and hit every bit as badly as his .220s batting avg. and ultimately turned it around.  However, you could see this coming from a mile away ! ! !  Just like Pena did, just like Larson.....EE has a relatively big right handed dead pull swing. Major league pitchers sniff it out the first time they see him and give him steady diet of breaking pitches away, bust him with heat and outside corner heat.. etc .... - pitches he can't handle with his swing.

In the majors (particularly right handed hitters), if you can't or don't use the opposite field you might as well only get two strikes - pitchers have a head start from the time you step in the box.

It was a mistake to move Randa. He was a guy who could have held down the third base spot for a few more years with solid play, leadership and for an affordable price.
- - - - - - -

FINALLY, Chris Denorfia..... a right handed hitter who clearly has the stroke to use whole field. I'm guessing more just dumb luck and numbers catching up than O'Brien et al realizing that a hitter of his type has a much better chance of being successful at mlb level with what he does than the Larsons/Encarnacions....(sigh).......

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Who's been the best hitter in MLB the second half?
The answer, Jason Giambi.  Why did he start hitting, because he stopped trying to go the other way, and he just pulls everything.  Now, maybe this isn't the best thing to do, but the man who was the greatest hitter of all time thought it was, Ted Williams.  He too pulled everything.  You don't have to use the whole field to be sucessful.

And Randa is 35.  No one not named BARRY succeeds for long after 35.  He wasn't worth a long term contract.  That's just stupid.  He might get a two year contract next year, revert to his .260 10HR and then become a bench player for the rest of his career.

by Tyler on Sep 14, 2005 2:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

please....
please...that is rubbish.........

Ted Williams was the exception AND he was a left handed hitter. The list of right handed hitters who get by yanking everything to left that ever become solid high level hitters is short indeed. In fact, you'll have to help me because I can think of ZERO.

And what are you smoking to think that athletes these days (particularly ones who make their money with smarts and good fundamentals LIKE RANDA as opposed to raw physical attributes) can't be productive into their late 30s???

please......

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 14, 2005 3:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

McGwire
Steroids....disqualified from list for cheating
Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 15, 2005 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hank Aaron and Babe Ruth
Pull hitters.  
Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 15, 2005 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

beating the dead horse that is Joe Randa
Edwin looks overmatched right now.  As 2005 is lost I don't mind him being out there.  Hopefully he'll make the necessary adjustments and be improved next year.

I don't know what else to say about an average 35 year old third baseman.  The sponsor of his baseball-reference page put it nicely:

Joey Randa, proof that in the day of steroids, warning track power, a .280 avg. and .400 slugging % can still get you $2MM/yr.

by Red Menace on Sep 14, 2005 4:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

randa...
you left out the best part....(though I don't like it personally)

"So toast the Joker who never saw a ball he couldn't pop up or a double play he couldn't hit into. The Colonel salutes you"

Joe Randa was just what this team needed. He hit well in GABP, provided solid defense and played the game with solid fundamentals - something Pena, Dunn, Lopez etc..etc..etc......all need to learn about......

you could have paid him 2-3 million for 2-3 years and not have to go into next year uncertain about third base like this team has done for the last several years.........

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 14, 2005 4:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Randa
Randa is more than 10 years older than "Pena, Dunn, Lopez, etc., etc., and etc.

Are you a Giants' fan, Michael?  Randa should retire to the Giants this offseason where he can do some fishing, join AARP, and still make millions.

Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 14, 2005 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

fishing....?
ha ha.....no not a giants fan........

I think you're confused though about the fishing. The donkey "future hall of famer" (ugh) dunn is the one who should pack up his pole and head back to houston.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 14, 2005 8:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

So......
I know how you feel, but still, lets get this straight...

Average 35 year old major leaguer-sign to long term deal.

Star 26 year old power hitter-let go to Houston for a couple of marginal Houston prospects.

Are you Chuck Lamar in disguise?

by Tyler on Sep 14, 2005 9:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

no
no, I wouldn't have signed McGriff, Canseco, Castealya or any of the hit show.....

but yes, I'd ship out the donkey to houston in a new york minute.  

Signing a Randa for a couple more years - a guy who hit well in GABP and is perfect fit for club and who wanted to stay a Red is hardly a Chuck LaMar move..........

You know something that is ridiculous. Reds want to have this policy of not discussing contracts during the season yet they continue to bring in guys for one year deals. What's the point?

For every other team in the majors part of the purpose of a one year deal is to allow both parties a "trial/audition" type year with no long term committment. But when you find that it clicks for both parties how stupid is it to have a policy in place to not go ahead and add a couple years to contract when appropriate. Randa isn't the first time this has happened............

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 14, 2005 10:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

And..
but yes, I'd ship out the donkey to houston in a new york minute

And he'd hit 50 and power them to a championship behind the ageless Rocket, Red killer, and Andy.  

Anyway, they don't have a good farm system, and unless they're giving us Oswalt, we're not getting enough.  However much you hate him, he's worth a heck of a lot more than what Houston can offer us.

by Tyler on Sep 15, 2005 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Everyone hits well in GABP
Every is an overstatement.  Not every team does that, in fact can you point to any situation where a 1 year deal for a 35 year old led to a multi year deal AND it worked?  (Heck, I'll even let you go down to the age of 33).

Sample size is important here.  I was going to put up Randa's numbers with out his numbers from Petco and GABP, but ESPN doesn't have those numbers for whatever reason.  I wouldn't be surpised to see his numbers are around 260/330/400.  Which isn't good for a starting anything.

by Pinski on Sep 15, 2005 1:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Randa Splits
Yahoo's got the splits on each park.  Here are his 2005 numbers:

GABP 50g - .278/.332/.511/.843
PETCO 24g - .242/.303/.407/.710
All Others 63g - .287/.360/.426/.786

So he has hit better at GABP, but an .843 OPS is not worth signing him at the only position in which the Reds have a prospect.

You know who else hits well at GABP?
Dunn 74g - .269/.409/.641/1.050
Pena 47g - .270/.326/.553/.879

So, why shouldn't we keep them again?  They seem very well suited for GABP.

I understand that you hate Dunn and EdE.  That's fine, to each his own.  But this argument about keeping Randa is tired and it's too late anyway.

by Slyde on Sep 15, 2005 7:40 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

oh great slyde
oh great oz or I mean slyde knower of all that is "tired" and that which is not.....(pardon while I hurl).......

save your ops craapp for your fantasy friends who get excited about BBs from middle of the order power guys who don't steal bases. In the real world, rbi guys are paid to get hits and drive in runs.

What's "tiring" is having to explain things to someone like you who can't think conceptually.

The POINT is you look for VALUE. Dunn who has inflated power numbers courtesy of GABP and is type of player that costs relatively larger $$$ with today's baseball economics is NOT a good value.  A player like Randa who is not only AFFORDABLE and a solid player but also hits well in GABP IS a good value at GABP. Ditto as to why you're better off taking your chances with the unproven Pena rather than Dunn. You get Pena for a fraction of the cost and likely don't give up much if anything in production......again it's about VALUE. Go ahead and read that paragraph a couple more times before you respond with more OPS split stats.....(sigh).............talk about tiring ! ! ! !

And keep your "hate" to yourself. I hate neither EE or Dunn. I don't like Dunn's game or his influence on team. And I'm not convinced at this juncture that EE's upside is all that great but that is it....no HATE.....

Furthermore, EE came to Reds via a trade no reason he couldn't have been packaged up and traded for pitching prospects..........

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 15, 2005 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Michael, see: TINSTAAPP
I'll use some of your "basic" stats.  Dunn has 48 RBIs at home.  He has 42 RBIs on the road in 5 fewer games.  This is not GABP inflation.  Like you said, "in the real world, guys are paid to get hits and drive in runs."  

Where do you get this "Oh Great Slyde" crap from?  Just because he's the only one who thinks your backwards anti-logic is worth replying to doesn't mean he's claiming divinity.  
In fact I think he's restrained himelf quite well from being condescending at all.  

Now, if you had an actual point, then he might have to use a little muscle.

Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 15, 2005 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

....please...
muscle?...please......you're laughable.

Enjoy your Dunn now.  He is going to big swing strikeout his way out of baseball. Teams in general (not just the reds) won't want to pay 8 million+ for a guy like him.  And when he becomes a spot starter and platoon left handed bat he's not going to like baeball as much from the bench.  Starting up those restaurant sports bar chains will start sounding sweeter and sweeter.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 15, 2005 4:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wow
I just don't know what to say anymore.  

What are you going to say when every other team in the league is offering Dunn a long term deal worth $9-10 million per season?

Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 15, 2005 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

brrrrrrrrrian
I won't have to say that Brian. Put it in stone. It is the Chris Denorfias and the ~10 young outfielders in tampa bay organization who are now about ready for playing time, etc..etc...who will ultimately displace the donkey.  I see now why Dunn clung so tightly to his starting spot when Guillen was outplaying him.  Don't blame it on the hitting coaches though. Dunn made his choices.

He had 5 years where he could have taken stock, made some adjustments and taken his game up a level in a more broad well rounded, complete player manner. Instead he chose to stick with the big swing that got him to the bigs - and nothing else ! !  

Check out his "aginst lefties" splits this year. Wait till you see the batting avg. and even the all powerful OPS. Even go back 3 years "against lefties", still horrible.  He is playing himself into Russell Branyan. He will be a good power bat to insert against righties but not worth the 10 million you'd have to pay to make him everyday. Teams will not want to absorb what you must to realize those 35+ dingers.

What's really unfortunate for the Reds is they have now waited too long. Noone will give up much in trade for him knowing that his free agency/arbitration are now in spitting distance. Reds will either be stuck with him or at best grab a prospect or two........

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 16, 2005 7:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Against lefties . . .
Michael, go compare these guys.  

.233/.348/.485
.219 .286 .479
.244/.343/.426

These are career numbers against lefties.  In fact, I don't think it's even fair to compare two of them to the ther because one of them has been around for 15 years and is a PROVEN star (hint: it's not Joe Randa).  But I'll go ahead and compare them anyway.

The first line is Adam Dunn.  Time of service:  5 years.

The second line is Russell Branyan.  Time of service:  7 years, most of part-time duty.

And the third line?  Jim Thome.  

In fact, here are Thome's overall numbers in 2003 compared to Dunn's overall numbers last season:

.266/.385/.573
.266/.388/.569

Well what do you know?  For extra credit, how much does Jim Thome make?

Go ahead with your Rob Deer and Russell Branyan comparisons.  But as impressed as some fans are with Adam Dunn's 475-foot homeruns, I think you're just as guilty of being impressed by his monumental whiffs.  

Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 16, 2005 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good thread
I'd just like to commend Michael on this diary.  It had gotten pretty boring around here, what with the September blahs.  Now look: 19 posts in two days. Not bad!

I'd also like to point out that I'd "like to play for the Reds."  I'm also a "good clubhouse guy," at least I was back in 14 and under little league when I last played.  I think I put up something around .300/.450/.400.  I'll settle for 1.5 million a year, pretty "affordable."

by Red Menace on Sep 15, 2005 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I respectfully disagree...
I got bored of the thread after Michael started repeating his prior posts, and people tried all the same arguments they have always tried on him.  It's sort of like yelling "fire" in a crowded theater.  It's fun the first time, but it gets old pretty quickly after that.

I still think he's a witch, so we must burn him.

Don't mind me...just pitching to contact, that's all...

by Paul Householder on Sep 15, 2005 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

excellent
ha ha....excellent....

I was chatting with Rob Deer the other day and he feels the same way. He never understood what everyone got so riled up about because of a few strikeouts. He said he wished he could have played for the Reds. He'd have gotten his 500 homeruns and been a Hall of Famer.

It's very exciting to be a Reds fan. It's just like wall ball when we were kids - over the bushes is a homerun, anything on the ground is an out and of course a strikeout is an out.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 16, 2005 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Rob Deer
These Rob Deer comparisons are getting old.

Rob had a worse career batting average (20 points) and his walk rate wasn't even in Dunn's league.  Yeah you can focus on two things (HR and Ks) but thats like saying an apple and an orange are the same because they grow on trees and have seeds.

by Pinski on Sep 16, 2005 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Deer vs. Dunn etc...
I'll grant you going from .230 to .250 in batting avg. is a definite notch and needs acknowledgment. Agreed.

However, dismissing this 20 points batting avg. for sake of comparison is much less a distortion than what you see when people rave about Dunn and make comparisons based on his BB-inflated OPS.

Labeling Dunn a Gorman Thomas, Rob Deer, Russ Branyan with more walks and a slightly better batting avg. is pretty close to accurate (don't forget Dunn is also benefitting from increased run scoring and offense in today's game vs. 20 years ago when comparing to a Deer or Thomas).

Dunn is nothing like the hitters you see people try to compare him to when they go primarily by an OPS or RC.

A BB to Dunn is NOTHING LIKE a BB to Joe Morgan, Ryan Freel or even Paul Householder in his prime. Yes Dunn's BBs are better than outs and worthy of note but he like other middle of the order "power/rbi" guys who don't steal bases should be appraised by his hitting/slugging not his free passes.......

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 16, 2005 11:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Okay
Take Dunn out of the lineup and how many runs would this team lose?

Lets look at an example of the Cubbies:
"Despite being second in the NL in batting average, the team is (as of the end of play September 12) eleventh in the league in OBP and dead last in walks. This is how a team that is also second in SLG manages to be seventh in runs scored - no one's on base when the big hit comes." - Derek Smart by way of http://baseballanalysts.com/

The cubs are also above us in your favorite statistic BA with RISP, so maybe you can explain why we are 1st in Runs and they are 7th. [I think I can].

by Pinski on Sep 16, 2005 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

re: okay....
Good points. There is no doubt some critical mass at work. If your team accumulates enough bases you will score some runs. Reds do this. Dunn gets you lots of bases with his BBs, 2Bs and HRs. Freel, Lopez and others have been very effective table setters. Griffey has been a big run producer, Casey has gotten on and moved guys up if not driven them in and Valentin and Aurilia have been surprising in their run producing efforts.

I'll even grant you that as much as I do not like Dunn's game or his influence in lineup, IF you only had to pay him 2-3 million I'd go along with batting him 5-7th in lineup and get benefit of his walks and homeruns. In that role he would be doing what he does best - he'd be ROLE PLAYER filling a need........

My problem is building a team around big swings with bad fundamentals who strikeout alot - here Dunn is the queen bee. I believe it is a bad direction.

Remove Dunn from lineup you create opportunities for others to contribute (see Texas Rangers post-AROd).  I think you'd find you'd lose alot less runs than you think if not increase runs. And no doubt having more $$$$ for pitching would be beneficial.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 16, 2005 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Money
I guess I just don't think you understand the salaries in basebal.

You are suggesting that Dunn is only worth the same as an average baseball player and one shouldn't pay him more than Randa.

Now I know how much of a hankering you have for Randa, but you can't seriously be arguing that a 25 year who has the possibility for improvement (whether you believe it will come or not), who also "seems" to get along with the rest of the team really well (I know that you have said in the past you don't actually believe this to be the case), and who hits twice as many homeruns is worth the same amount as an average third baseman (at best) who at the age of 35 is going to decline sooner rather than later.

by Pinski on Sep 16, 2005 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yep
I believe that's precisely what he's saying.  
Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 16, 2005 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Texas?
Piss poor comparison. Texas is "decent" because their young hitters finally blossomed, not because A-Rod is in NY. How can a player who bats .300, hits 50 homers and drives in 130 runs being stealing others players "opportunities"? The Rangers couldn't win because they invested all sorts of money in A-Rod and a slew of terrible pitchers (Chan Ho Park, et al).

The good young infield costs no more than 15 million a year, half that if Soriano is gone.

Let's put A-Rod back on the Rangers. You then have Young back at second, which is where he should play anyhow, he's a pretty bad shortstop. You just improved your defense and your offense. And guess what, you may not have much to spend on pitching, but the Rangers haven't spent that windfall of cash from the trade on pitching anyway. Who's their highest paid pitcher? Steve Karsay? well, that's great. If the Rangers had A-rod back they would be in much of the same position, no pitching, all hitting, and marginal playoff hopes. Mostly because they're run by idiots.

I'm not sure why we keep having this argument. Every little while you bring up a point about how Dunn or Pena or Lopez or EE sucks and why we should trade them or some such thing. Leave the offense alone. This team would make the playoffs with a decent pitching staff. Just look at our second half record.

Your bashing of OPS may be relevant, but it's misguided. As has been indicated before, OPS is nothing more than a quick and dirty system of evaluation player value. And sure, there are ignoramuses who read "moneyball" once and spout "OBP this" and "OPS that" who don't know anything about designing and applying metrics for player evaluation. But who cares about them? Let them believe what they want. As Bill James would say, it's times for the amateurs to clear the floor. I'm guessing the Billy Beane and Theo Epstein are laughing all the way to the bank because they have a horde of morons hung up on "new" stats like ops when they are already light years ahead with defensive metrics and systems for injury prevention.

This reply may have no point, aside from this: your criticism of the reds, and reds fans specifically, is tired and repetitive, and misguided to boot. The bad direction you speak of is not in the "queen bee's strikeouts", but in the Miltons, Hudsons, and Wilsons of the world. I know that having to listen to people crown Adam Dunn as a HOFer is obnoxious, but you have spent a great deal of time and energy make points that are insignificant in comparison to the larger problems the team faces.

by Pete on Sep 17, 2005 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

sigh....
hey bozo, everyone knows the pitching blows. Ok? would you rather everyone in cincinnati whining endlessly about the obvious problem that everyone is in 100% agreement on?

You got so caught up in your rant and attack of me that you either failed to absorb my point or you are like some of the other stat heads who only have one side of their brain functioning.

It's not always just about the numbers or the "bases". These are humans not rotisserie cards. You remove ARod from Texas and yes you allow new leadership to emerge, you create opportunities for others and you change something that wasn't resulting in WINNING. Noone is saying ARod was not a great player. If you can't understand this you've probably never been on an organized sports team at any level.

Furthermore get your facts straight. You make swooping statements about who I "bash" or I contend should be traded which are false. If you don't want to communicate in a civil manner well stay the he11 out of my personal little diary  ! !

Again, as for your comment "I'm not sure why we keep having this argument. " ....I prefer we not have it. I don't like your tone and I prefer you just keep your posts out of this diary.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 17, 2005 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not much to say...
a few thoughts...
  1. You addressed nothing in a coherent manner. You simply responded with emotional rhetoric and your standard misguided vehemence.
  2. You obviously didn't read my post, or else you would have seen that i do agree with you on a few issues. (i.e. blind dunn worshippers and know-nothing "statheads"). The "rant" was in no way one-sided.
  3. "Bases?" Who said anything about bases?
  4. What's the Rangers record? And why is it marginally better? Not because the pitching is significantally better (although it has been somewhat better), but because the offense has more talent, and this isn't because of "leadership" or more money; as i said before, it's because the rangers young hitters have developed and the bullpen overperformed.
  5. My facts? I think you have a long enough history on the small circle of reds websites for me to get a decent impression of which players you like and don't like. There are few (other than you) who would disagree with my conclusions.
  6. Your presonal diary? Hey buddy, we all know that you post public rants because you want people to read them and respond. So don't play coy and tell me to stay away.
  7. I think that it's cute that you like to make wild outrageous statements that make people mad. I bet you're fun at a party.

by Pete on Sep 18, 2005 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm . . .
I was really looking forward to some comments to my "Against Lefties" post below . . .
Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 16, 2005 3:25 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

lefties
I didn't see post or I certainly would have responded sooner.

I'm not sure I get your point though. It does show what I suggested. Namely, that Dunn is basically Russ Branyan with more walks. You think it's a good decision to pay an extra 8 million for 50 walks? You can give your lineup a left handed power bat role player (if that's what you want) for Russ Branyan money for a fraction of the cost of what you will have to pay dunn.

As for Thome, I presume you're saying Dunn and Thome have comparable numbers and Thome is an example of a high paid player of this type who is arguably future hall of famer?

My only response to that is 1)I'm not a big Thome fan either and 2)Thome's lifetime batting avg. is .284 vs. Dunn's .249. Thirty-Five BA points from an "rbi guy" is nothing to dismiss.

But I'll concede Brian, on the optimistic glass half full side of argument you can make case for Dunn as a Thome-type player.

I, however, see Dunn as early bloomer who is proving he will not or can't make adjustments and who is already showing signs of having peaked.

Enough with the Homeruns and Strikeouts

by MichaelRed on Sep 16, 2005 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thome
Yes, that was my message.  

The difference between Thome and Dunn, therefore, is first that Dunn hits right handed pitchers pretty well while Thome hits them ridiculously well.  And second, Thome has been through the so-called most productive years in a career (26-32) to make those batting average stats look better, while Dunn still has them ahead of him.  If you say it's a glass-is-half-full scenario, then the water is rising.

Brian B

by Brian B on Sep 16, 2005 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Glass is half full....
It's Friday, we don't have to fill our glasses with water anymore.

It's beer o'clock and I'm buying!

Go Reds!

by Slyde on Sep 16, 2005 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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