Who's Left - Pitching

by JD Arney on Dec 27, 2005 3:23 AM EST in News

Dan O'Brien is sure to sign a mediocre pitcher in the next month or two, so I thought it'd be interesting to take a quick look at who's left and see if there's anyone that I'd actually get excited about seeing in Red next year. Here's what I found:

FA Pitchers possibly worth taking a chance on:

Tony Armas: Armas is a good age, turning 28 next April, and he's had some success in the past (4.03 ERA in 2001, 4.44 ERA in 2002). He's suffered from injury problems the past couple of years, but if he's healthy he's slightly intriguing. The Reds haven't been able to turn guys like this around in recent years, but maybe they'll have better success with Vern Ruhle taking over the pitching coaching duties.

Jeff Weaver: It's tough to tell what kind of money Weaver will command, but he's clearly the best of the rest after the Rangers signing of Kevin Millwood. The major downside for the Reds is the 35 home runs that Weaver gave up last season playing in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. Probably won't be worth the money he gets, but that's not new in his case. I could really see Dan O'Brien getting excited about Weaver, so I really wouldn't be too shocked if the Reds made a play for him.

Byung-Hyun Kim: This is the guy the Reds should sign if they're going to get anyone. He can come out of the pen if necessary, and he could even close if asked. Strikes people out. Had a tough year last year but he had it in Colorado which means it doesn't really count, although his stats were actually worse on the road. I like the idea of signing Kim for the pen and using him as a swing guy who can be called upon to spot start when needed.

Other guys the Reds might be interested in (but really shouldn't be):

Joe Mays: He was sort of good years ago, and he's struggled badly of late. Dan O'Brien has been quoted talking about how teams like the Reds need to take chances on guys having bounceback season ... so a guy like Joe Mays might look attractive to DanO. Unfortunately.

Shawn Estes: Might not ever be willing to play for the Reds again, but I could see DanO being interested. He's a veteran "name" who "knows how to win". He keeps the ball in the park, but there's not much else I can say positive about the guy. One time around was enough for me.

Ismael Valdez: I've always kind of thought of him the same way I used to think of Ramon Ortiz. Even I don't really know what I mean by that, but I do know that it's not a complimentary association.

Al Leiter: Vet. Knows how to win. Coming off just one bad year, possibly due for a bounceback.

/channeling DanO some more

Jose Lima: Lima time baby! It'd just be too perfect wouldn't it? With Lima the Reds could have two pitchers threatening an over 7.00 ERA, which would make me want to gouge out my eyes.

Kevin Brown: Yeah, DanO type player, you know why by now. Would remind me a lot of the Eric Milton signing if he came to Cincinnati, because it would excite a lot of fans but would ultimately bring everyone a great deal of misery.

So there you go. Not exactly a sterling cast, but that's what's usually left by late December. Now we just wait to see what move DanO makes.

If any.

Tweet Comment 12 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Mays & Brown

Mays actually signed with the Royals a few days ago, so you can check him off that list.

To quote Bill Lumbergh - "I'm gonna have to go ahead and disagree with you there" about Kevin Brown.

Brown would be a guy I wouldn't mind taking a minor league contract flier on. He's an extreme groundball pitcher who's been just flat out bad the last year or so, but the question is that is it injury bad or just plain getting old bad?

I preface that by saying I only like that signing if it's a gamble - A small contract that won't hurt to be shed or a minor league deal contingent upon performance. However - a multi year deal or guaranteed millions spent on him and I will be screaming from the rooftops.

On another note, it's been quite funny lately since someone introduced Dan O'Brien & John Fay recently to the notion that there are flyball pitchers and ground ball pitchers.

by jmcclain19 on Dec 27, 2005 3:48 AM EST reply actions

Miller time?

I posted this on a diary, but I would take a flyer on Wade Miller just because his upside is so great. Struck out a lot of guys and didn't give up many HRs (in Houston, no less). He's obviously an injury risk, but he's young and I believe a FA right now.

by ken on Dec 27, 2005 10:25 AM EST reply actions

Armas

I had a nightmare last night that the Reds traded Austin Kearns for Tony Armas Jr.

by Brian B on Dec 27, 2005 11:15 AM EST reply actions

That was close!

He's with the Nationals now, along with Ortiz. You know Dano would have signed him if he'd lasted.

With Randa heading to Pittsburgh, I want the D.C. city council to balk at the stadium deal in hopes that they move into our division. At least we'd be better than somebody next year!

"It can't end like this. Tell them I said something."-Poncho Villa

by sukr on Dec 29, 2005 9:46 PM EST up reply actions

the one guy I'd want

Kim is the only guy J.D. listed that I'd have any interest in. Armas' home/road splits were brutal last year, Weaver just isn't very good, and the rest are gawd awful.

Were I O'Brien, I'd take a chance on Jamey Wright and his 2-to-1 groundball/flyball ratio.

by Watubi on Dec 27, 2005 11:49 AM EST reply actions

Valdez Thoughts

Good and interesting Hot Stove topic, JD.

Signing Valdez, even for cheap, would be a mistake, IMHO.

Valdez' lack of stamina has always been a problem. In 288 career starts, he has 13 complete games and six of those came in 1995(!) alone.
He has become quite injury-prone since his last bona fide decent season (1999) and has lost a lot of velocity in the interim. Safe to say, he has not compensated with movement on his pitches; his hits and homeruns allowed per nine have also increased since his days on the Dodgers.
Aside from things breaking or snapping on him, he has always had baffling problems with blisters on his fingertips, which have caused him to leave games early or even miss starts throughout his career. Yes, blisters can and do happen but with Valdez, the situation is terminal and it seems no amount of applied crazy glue or pickle juice soaking can cure his blister susceptibility.

The last thing the Reds should want would be a finesse-style, questionable-stamina, injury-prone, self-propelled blister factory on the roster.

Unfortunately, given the Reds' tendency to be among MLB's shelters of last resort for the lame of arm and given that Valdez has a pulse and will likely not command more than his 2005 salary of $1.5 million, we might well be seeing him in Cincinnati togs in Spring Training '06.

Plus, lest we forget, Valdez was pitching for Texas (2002-2003) while DanO was Assistant GM there...This history could weigh against those of us who think we could better do without the likes of Ismael Valdez, although I have no knowledge of whether those two were on good terms or not. Any insight here could go a long way in fortune telling...

An early Happy New Year to all, regardless of what develops.

by CFred in Westwood on Dec 27, 2005 12:32 PM EST reply actions

Nice topic

Interesting thoughts. Amazing how the Milton experience has pointed out the dangers of fly ball pitchers in GABP...at least on the web. Hopefully, the message has penetrated the FO, too!

Key point: isn't the "project" the old, failed Bowden/Gullett strategy that brought us Haynes, etc. As someone said, track record lately on turning those guys around is bad.

Ultimately, the guys everyone wants are too expensive. We need a guy under the radar who can be above average in our park...next year and the year after. If that's available....

by orangeandbrown on Dec 27, 2005 1:16 PM EST reply actions

Lima Time!

I would love some Jose Lima right now. The Reds aren't going to compete next year, and if you can't be good, be entertaining. I saw him get shelacked by the Angels last year in Anaheim. No pitcher is more fun when things aren't going his way (which is often). Plus his wife might bring the twins to the ballpark.

http://digamma.net/btfwiki/index.php/Jose_Lima's_wife

by Red Menace on Dec 27, 2005 3:38 PM EST reply actions

reclamation/schlmek-lamation

i cant stomach another handful of pitching reclamation projects. our entire staff is reclamation projects.

P. Wilson --- coming off surgery, signed from the Tampa Bay organization.

E. Milton --- Missed most of 2003 season. Had a 1.55 WHIP in '05. I have yet to see the 94 mph heater that Stats, Inc. mentions on his bio.

B. Claussen --- 3 years removed from elbow surgery. 1.41 WHIP in '05. If he averages 6 IP/start in '06 the Reds will be blessed.

Aaron Harang --- traded from A's. Horse. 27 yrs old, 3414 pithes last season. Nice WHIP and K/ratio.

Luke Hudson --- looks to be replaced in the rotation by Dave Williams. Here's hoping the shoulder is well-rested, and healed. 2005 was not kind: 1.57 WHIP, and a big drop in K ratio. I'd like to Hudson pull it together and earn a spot in the pen.

Dave Williams --- looks to be Brandon Claussen+. I'm not discouraged by his presence in the rotation whatsoever.

I dont have much confidence in someone within the organization stepping up this season. Bubba, Bong, Gruler, Wagner, Basham, Dumatrait, Howington, Hall, Pauly, etc. Egad.

by ohiobobcat on Dec 28, 2005 2:42 PM EST reply actions

home grown injuries

And why do we have to fish from a pool of suspect major league free agents in the first place? Why are all of our promising minor league pitchers getting hurt? Until we can produce a pitcher who is better than a 4th or 5th starter, we'll never break the cycle of a small market team that can't afford other teams' talent, yet can't develop our own. We've had some luck with Harang and Claussen -- both pretty established when we got them -- but development seems to be a problem. And a pitcher with all the talent in the world is wasted (or traded)if he's not taught well in the minors. Given the differential in salary between a major league free agent and a minor league pitching coach, I'm suprised that every decent pitching prospect we've had for a while now seems to either underachieve or succumb to injury due to poor mechanics.

by ctnyc on Dec 28, 2005 11:31 PM EST reply actions

Yes!!!!!

I think you said it all. Can we figure out, finally, how some other organizations get it right almost all the time, and implement their ideas?

by pw on Dec 29, 2005 9:58 AM EST up reply actions

Why?

It's so much easier to make excuses.

Just like:

Pitchers don't want to pitch in GABP because it is a bad pitchers park (not true).
Adam Dunn wants to play in Houston, so he won't sign a long term contract in Cincy.
The impending sale has tied DanO's hands to making deals.
The offense doesn't know how to manufacture runs, so they signed Womack.

See, that's so much easier!

"No matter what happens, someone will take it too seriously."- Dave Barry
Reds (and Blues)

by Slyde on Dec 29, 2005 10:35 AM EST up reply actions